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Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

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Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#111

Post by peterth3 »

JoshTriplett wrote: post #52
lazzlazzlazz wrote: post #35

The way incumbents are attempting to seize power via regulatory capture, using "X-Risk" and fantastical claims of sudden human extinction is maybe one of the most cynical ploys in the history of tech so far. Open source is one of our greatest gifts, and the push to close off AI with farcical licensing and reporting requirements (which will undoubtedly become more strict) is absurd. The laws we have already cover male…

> seize power via regulatory capture Not even a little bit. "Stop" is not regulatory capture. Some large AI companies are attempting to twist "stop" into "be careful, as only we can". The actual way to stop the existential risk is to stop. https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1719777049576128542 > the push to close off AI with farcical licensing and reporting requirements "Stop" is not "licensing and reporting requ…

Licensing can definitely turn into regulatory capture if it expands enough. It’s effectively a barrier to entry defined by the incumbent.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#112

Post by samus »

Animats wrote: post #4

It's too late for monopolizing large language models. The technology for making them is known and the cost keeps coming down. There are things to worry about, but this doesn't seem to be one of them.

The same can be said about guns. Because of this, gun making is a licensed industry, even though in theory a lot of people can legally acquire the tools to make guns in their garage.

Edit: drugs and licensed services like law and healthcare also apply

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#113

Post by bafe »

logicchains wrote: post #97
matjus wrote: post #86

The most notable thing about AI right now is that it's the new widget. The economy wanted it, the zeitgeist wanted it, and for that purpose no more development is necessary. It's already reshaped McKinsey's advice, Microsoft's operating system and the public's trust in the exceptionalism of art creation. take Auto-Tune: before it blew up, one uncritically accepted that a great sounding vocal performance was simply th…

>I can't recall a time where the general populace was this vulnerable, ill-informed, traumatized and submissive. I don't know why you think this is the case; the general populace seems less submissive now than ever before. Consider how much opposition there is to Israel's bombing of Gaza among the western populace, even though almost all the elites support it. Or how the uptake rate for the latest covid vaccine boost…

I take the fact that elites: - Support the booster - Get boosted - Try to avoid catching COVID

As indications that getting boosted and avoiding sick people, perhaps wearing a mask on the train isn't a bad idea

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#114

Post by logicchains »

PeterStuer wrote: post #100
logicchains wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If I babysit your kids and you pay me 1.000.000$, and you watch my kids and I pay you 1.000.000$, we just created 2.000.000$ in GDP. This isn't the case with purchasing-power adjusted GDP, which is specifically adjusted to account for the actual purchasing power of people's money.

Would that still not in the above toy example lead to 0$ vs 2.000.000$/(some factor)?

Yes, but it's not going to have any meaningful impact on the overall gdp because it couldn't happen at scale (requires one party to have 1.000.000$ to spend in the first place).

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#115

Post by jamilton »

peterth3 wrote: post #111
JoshTriplett wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> seize power via regulatory capture Not even a little bit. "Stop" is not regulatory capture. Some large AI companies are attempting to twist "stop" into "be careful, as only we can". The actual way to stop the existential risk is to stop. https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1719777049576128542 > the push to close off AI with farcical licensing and reporting requirements "Stop" is not "licensing and reporting requ…

Licensing can definitely turn into regulatory capture if it expands enough. It’s effectively a barrier to entry defined by the incumbent.

They're saying don't do licensing, just make it illegal.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#116

Post by 00strw »

logicchains wrote: post #97
matjus wrote: post #86

The most notable thing about AI right now is that it's the new widget. The economy wanted it, the zeitgeist wanted it, and for that purpose no more development is necessary. It's already reshaped McKinsey's advice, Microsoft's operating system and the public's trust in the exceptionalism of art creation. take Auto-Tune: before it blew up, one uncritically accepted that a great sounding vocal performance was simply th…

>I can't recall a time where the general populace was this vulnerable, ill-informed, traumatized and submissive. I don't know why you think this is the case; the general populace seems less submissive now than ever before. Consider how much opposition there is to Israel's bombing of Gaza among the western populace, even though almost all the elites support it. Or how the uptake rate for the latest covid vaccine boost…

A lot less than there was to the invasion of Iraq. People forget that the largest antiwar marches happened and were not covered by the media of the time: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_the_Iraq_Wa...

It was surreal watching the news spend 5 minutes on a protest that went on all day in front of their offices.

By comparison is there a million man march against Israel today?

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#117

Post by meheleventyone »

cosmojg wrote: post #12
penjelly wrote: post #2

some speculators say we'll enter an age of abundance and money wont matter nearly as much (or at all) but if thats the case, how do businesses transition from their current state of profit over everything into money is not important? I see it as much more likely that things become monopolized instead

Eh, the strong market for virtual goods and the existence of significant virtual economies[1] like those found in Roblox and Second Life lead me to believe that markets can and will always exist, regardless of how far we progress into and beyond post-scarcity (assuming humanity persists in its current form and consumption preferences remain stable). I'm less certain about the capitalist model in particular, but it to…

The economies in Roblox and Second Life didn’t just appear they were built intentionally to make money out of the platforms. They are literally bringing our economy into those games on purpose. Same with other virtual worlds that don’t offer trading for real money they’re just transplanting ‘money’ into their world without much thought beyond the analogue to the real world often with hilarious consequences like runaway inflation.

It basically says more about the overriding culture the games are made within than anything about market economies.

I also find myself thinking like a rat in a maze towards markets as well. But I also remind myself that far more innovative thought is put towards hustling other rats in the maze than working out how to get out.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#118

Post by matjus »

logicchains wrote: post #97
matjus wrote: post #86

The most notable thing about AI right now is that it's the new widget. The economy wanted it, the zeitgeist wanted it, and for that purpose no more development is necessary. It's already reshaped McKinsey's advice, Microsoft's operating system and the public's trust in the exceptionalism of art creation. take Auto-Tune: before it blew up, one uncritically accepted that a great sounding vocal performance was simply th…

>I can't recall a time where the general populace was this vulnerable, ill-informed, traumatized and submissive. I don't know why you think this is the case; the general populace seems less submissive now than ever before. Consider how much opposition there is to Israel's bombing of Gaza among the western populace, even though almost all the elites support it. Or how the uptake rate for the latest covid vaccine boost…

That's a good counterpoint.

I think there's a new large category of uncritically-accepted norms, perhaps much larger than expressing political opinions. I'm thinking about smartphone adoption, mass surveillance, the big yawn at NSA datacenters, the flattening and consolidation of culture (music, tv, hollywood, etc), the normalization of extreme, zero-sum thinking with regard to race, gender and inequity regardless of political affiliation -- for me, this kind of thing is more interesting than stated "beliefs", and certainly more material.

It seems unusual that there are so many frameworks, like describing computers as having "memory" (see: O'Gieblyn) or describing people as having "race", that have quietly gone from the theoretical plane, where they were useful, to being unchallenged fact. Again, this appears to be non-partisan -- and actually helps to explain some of the weirder behaviors of our markets and global politics.

it definitely means something that all that Western opposition appears, at the moment, to have zero effect on Israeli military decision-making. And who would expect it to?

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#119

Post by peterth3 »

Can we stop labeling prominent AI researchers as “AI Godfather”? It’s so silly and barely truthful.

The concept of AI has been around since Turing and if anyone deserves a title like “Father of AI” it’s him.

LeCun is Chief AI Scientist at Meta. They can just leave it at that.

Re: Yann LeCun: AI one-percenters seizing power forever is real doomsday scenario

#120

Post by dartos »

PeterStuer wrote: post #48

People focus on LLM's and diffusion models because they are so omnipresent now. But an AI for stock picking and prediction that would be realy next level and outcompete the current ones cosistently would siphon of so much wealth it would basically own society if the operators were clever enough not to get so gready short term that the system would litterally collapse overnight.

I think we’ve already been aware of the limitations of ML models in the financial world.

Historical financial data only predicts so well. If there was a way to make a money printing machine with ML it would’ve happened already. It’s a much easier problem space than language or image generation.

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