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Splunk to cut workforce by 7% after cisco deal

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Re: Splunk to cut workforce by 7% after cisco deal

#61
CFO's will follow suit and Wallstreet will begin to expect tech to make cuts ...

It's getting noticed that Twitter/X reduced it's staff by 80%, and also reduced it's cloud spend by 60% ... and there hasn't been any material change to their business.

Some might argue that Twitter/X has been able to innovate faster as a result.

Now I'm not suggesting that FANG is going to layoff 80% overnight. But I wouldn't be surprised if CFOs gradually over time continue reduce their headcount, or keep headcount flat over the years to come.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/12/tech/elon-musk-bbc-interview-...

https://twitter.com/XEng/status/1717754398410240018

Re: Splunk to cut workforce by 7% after cisco deal

#62
post #30

It's always 7%. "T-Mobile is laying off 7% of staff" "Robinhood Lays Off About 7% of Its Full-Time Employees" "Sonos lays off 7%" "Vox Media to lay off 7% of workforce" "Payments firm PayPal to lay off 7% of its workforce" "Roomba maker iRobot to lay off about 7% of its workforce" "GitLab to reduce workforce by 7%" "Informatica to lay off 7% of its workforce" It seems like these CEOs are just copying from the same pl…

My guess is that it’s a safe number where you can lay off at that level and guarantee minimal disruptions in operations. 7% equates to laying off one person per group of 14 people. It would be hard to argue that most companies couldn’t get by with 13 people doing the work of 14. I think you would feel the loss of one person on a team of 10 a lot more.

> My guess is that it’s a safe number where you can lay off at that level and guarantee minimal disruptions in operations.

Only if you fire the people at random. Any bias will change that number.

Re: Splunk to cut workforce by 7% after cisco deal

#63
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ethics an morals have financial upside, for people and groups of people (companies). For instance, do to their past behavior, and its publicity, Cisco is likely to lose many more competent employees during an acquisition than had they behaved otherwise.

I would say that a lack of ethics has more financial upside

Depends the environment you're working in - there are several cultures within the US where I think your statement is quite true... but in general people find that working for a company that doesn't care for them is a detriment and will demand higher compensation due to the obvious risk. That all said - you should always be defensive as an employee about how much risk you accept on yourself since the employer/employee relationship can be terminated suddenly and without any real recourse in most circumstances.

Re: Splunk to cut workforce by 7% after cisco deal

#64
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I was at Malwarebytes (I left in 2014) I helped with two acquisitions. In both cases we took care of all of the people in the new company and rolled them into Malwarebytes. M&A can be done without being ethically and morally bankrupt. It's totally possible. Cisco just doesn't think that's a priority.

It often has to do with the size of the company: the larger you are, the weaker your decisionmaking. I work for a very large corp. As part of a round of layoffs earlier this year, they cut an entire foreign office, to the man. The decision was made from very high up: VPs were informed after it occurred. For some departments, the losses were small. For others, they were crippling: It was a very important group, doing…

I'd summarize it as: at large scale, M&A cuts happen only at the department budget level.

No one is looking at individual people or teams.

Re: Splunk to cut workforce by 7% after cisco deal

#65
Well, never the less, these deal are all done with a set of vested interests that in many occasion don’t necessarily align with neither the customer’s (why companies should even exist) or that of their employees ( the motor of companies success) but more in the realm of financial spreadsheets, where, due diligence sways in the direction of those stakeholders in the deal… And I purposely look at it this way as no to take any given side without the details.

Non the less, IMO, the only winners here are the stockholders, Splunk as a business, and many others with the same model of “schema selling” are in a high risks stake in the new erra of AI/LLMs.

If you consider the accelerating world of AI we are living in, and the emergence/trend towards Domain Specific Large Language Models (DS-LLMs) and advancement like MEMgpt, they represent a transformative approach to data analytics. Instead of using a schema-specific model, as seen in tools like Splunk which extract and transform data into a predefined schema, DS-LLMs offer a flexible, continuously trained approach. They not only analyze data but also learn from it in real-time. The “actors”, or bots, leveraging tech like MEMgpt that not only collect but also learn from the vast streams of data are far more capable than those schema models. As these models self-train and trade knowledge, they are poised to provide insights more organically aligned with the data’s inherent structure, rather than a pre-defined schema. This means businesses could potentially gain deeper, more intuitive insights without the confines of structured data models. With the rapid pace of innovation in the AI sector, it’s worth questioning whether traditional, schema-based solutions will be able to keep up with the dynamic learning capabilities of DS-LLMs. I still wonder who got the better deal here.

Wishing the best to all the Splunk employees moving forward.

Re: Splunk to cut workforce by 7% after cisco deal

#66
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I work at an observability service and have a personal stake in the outcome so you can disregard my opinion I guess. But it seems to me that observability is there to enable you to get along with fewer people. The more stats and logs and profiles you have the fewer human operators you need.

The savings only really works at scale though right. I've worked in plenty of engineering departments with 200 engineers and essentially 5 operators. You need bare minimum 3 of them for holidays/timezones and key man risk reasons. So you can maybe help a 200 person org save 0.5-1% of their lower paid staff? Is your bill + engineering integration costs going to be less than $200-400k/year?

I've worked in 100-person groups where everyone spent all of their time trying to figure out what the hell the system was doing because it did not have tracing or logging.

Re: Splunk to cut workforce by 7% after cisco deal

#67
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is that it’s a safe number where you can lay off at that level and guarantee minimal disruptions in operations. 7% equates to laying off one person per group of 14 people. It would be hard to argue that most companies couldn’t get by with 13 people doing the work of 14. I think you would feel the loss of one person on a team of 10 a lot more.

> My guess is that it’s a safe number where you can lay off at that level and guarantee minimal disruptions in operations. Only if you fire the people at random. Any bias will change that number.

Bias toward low performers and/or more recent hires would change that number more favorably for the company.

Us peon employees don't like to hear it, but it's true.

Re: Splunk to cut workforce by 7% after cisco deal

#68
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> an excuse people who make decisions use to act unethically. at every level, the incentive is to maximize the profit margins. If acting ethically doesn't increase the profits, then any personal sacrifice on the part of the decision maker to act ethically is only going to get punished (may be not immediately, but certainly some time in the future).

> at every level, the incentive is to maximize the profit margins This is wildly oversimplifying. For example, it theoretically rules out principle-agent problems.

While true, you can somewhat assume that the principle could have already incentivized the agent to align by assigning rewards for increasing profits (aka, bonuses, stock grants based on performance targets etc).

Re: Splunk to cut workforce by 7% after cisco deal

#69
post #18

Unfortunately, it's how M&A works since forever, even if the official statement is "The overall market has retracted". I guess most of the cuts are in the "non-productive" departments like sales, marketing, hr and stuff like this.

It's not that they're 'nonproductive', per se; that's kinda pejorative. And it's not the 'market'. It's that you just don't need 2 HR, accounting, marketing, finance or other back-office departments, post-merger, so most of those folks become redundant. The acquiring company is going to convert to their systems asap anyway; economies of scale mean you don't need as many bodies to cover the acquisition. You usually try and keep a good percentage of sales guys if for no other reason than there are deals in flight you don't want to loose, but eventually those guys get whittled down too, usually right after the change from "small company fast and loose comp plans" to "corporate comp plan same as everyone". And, of course, the execs have cut their own deal. It's when they start cutting core engineering and support right away that you go "wassup with that???".

In the cold calculus of M&As, 7% sounds like an entirely normal number, IME.

I remember vividly when one of my companies got bought by IBM, and a couple of the younger back-office folks came by to ask me "what do you think?" because I'd been through M&As before. "I think you need to look for another job" was the best I could do, and it was a little disheartening.

Re: Splunk to cut workforce by 7% after cisco deal

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s hard to get application performance monitoring (APM) tools using FOSS because of the complexity of writing libraries. You could ideally work most things with FOSS. Use opentelemtry extensions to a time dries DB of your choice. Use elk or opensearch for logs, osquery for Linux, native cloud monitoring tools that come out of the box, etc. Problem is it takes a lot of setup and maintenance. It can bite you back in…

Or you can spending a day or two creating enough things to track the "end to end" numbers and debug problems the hard way when they appear. Modern APM is completely out of proportion, and most people that use it do absolutely not get enough benefit for paying for those systems. My impression is this is yet another of those Gartner-created hypes that survive as a meme on the high-management minds and don't survive tou…

Worse yet I saw a lot of APM-or-nothing mentality from CTOs & senior management such that we skipped over very simple to implement, basic monitoring that catches the typical issues.. because "APM is coming" and "we hired an SRE" and and and..

People want to chase the bright new thing that Gartner is pushing (its always these guys).

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