91–100 of 133 posts
This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.
> So how did every reliable model we use miss this? That’s for graduate students and researchers to answer in the coming years, because I have no formal idea. Would love to see followup on this. Wish there were some way to like bookmark or something and come back in a few years.
I'm one of the researchers on a new disease forecasting project, and I'm bookmarking this because we often use hurricane forecasting as an example of a level of accuracy we aspire to, so this is a really interesting breakdown.
This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.
I assumed Otis was a indy dev library project and Acapulco to be a code name for a upcoming release.
This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.
First thought: Otis the dog was improperly put into the some kind of vacuum hold on a flight to Acapulco and burst wide open.
I think we'll see more of this sort of thing. Weather models have been made in a climate somewhat different than the current one and those models are relatively accurate when modeling the past. As more data rolls in about anomalies like this the models will get updated and they'll become more accurate again in specific cases that are outliers right now, but they may end up slightly less accurate overall (due to the i…
This headline could really use the word "hurricane" in it. I had no idea what Otis or Acapulco were, and my initial guess was wildly off: some sort of space probe experienced a catastrophic failure on the way to an asteroid.
For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…
Cloudflare blocked me from accessing it. edit: wow, that was some unexpected downvotes
For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…
> Adding energy to the system Best estimates I've found to date: [ EDIT: 0.6-0.8 ] * Petawatts * of extra energy circulating in the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic changes to radiative forcing. EDIT: For the people downvoting this because "watts are units of power not energy", please read the Wikipedia page on radiative forcing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing For the people downvoting because…
As for "1 order of magnitude (out of 16!)", the "out of 16" is meaningless - the number 16 is merely a consequence of the arbitrary choice of unit size. Your original figure was simply off by a factor of ten, in any units.