Are self-driving cars actually going to be lucrative?
Yes, the progress is promising, but it seems to me (as an observer that knows nothing) that things aren't very scalable.
- It seems like every city pretty much requires a custom-tailored solution, and they still haven't solved the "downtown" problem.
- It's far more of a regulatory minefield than a pure software business model.
- The cars themselves, in addition to being expensive, well, cars, also require even more specialized equipment like lidars and infrared cameras.
- I imagine that if real disruption starts to occur these cars are going to be easy targets for vandals and disgruntled transportation employees.
- IIUC the leader, Waymo, does all the computation in the cloud, so you're hosed if the network goes down.
I'm rooting for self driving cars as much as anyone, but it seems like an uphill battle to achieve a "fleet of robotaxis" style approach... seems more likely to me that Waymo will eventually license the tech to automakers for use in personal vehicles.