The Beer Game -or- Why Apple Can’t Build iPads in the US • Hacker News Board

Re: The Beer Game -or- Why Apple Can’t Build iPads in the US

#111

Post by WiseWeasel » Thu, Apr 05, 2012, 4:43 PM UTC

raganwald wrote: post #7

People often draw analogies between software development and manufacturing. If you’re going to do that, it’s vital to take the “supply chain” of information into account. The inefficiencies inherent in creating a supply chain consisting of a developer, a tech lead, a product manager, an operations manager, and finally a user resemble the supply chain in the drinking game. Orders go one way, features go the other way.

Unfortunately, half your customers are giving valid feedback, and half want you to be making vodka instead of beer. A developer's time (and fleeting sanity) is much too precious to have him sort through them...

Re: The Beer Game -or- Why Apple Can’t Build iPads in the US

#112

Post by tlb » Thu, Apr 05, 2012, 4:43 PM UTC

jonknee wrote: post #63

tlb wrote: post #17

Having gone through the painful exercise of building robots in the US, I appreciate the problem. Our end-end supply chain latency was 16 weeks, far too long to scale effectively to match demand. Many component changes we wanted to make would have created a 6-week delay, so we had to compromise. A place with a factory across the street that could make screws in 3 hours sounds like heaven.

You were also operating at an entirely different scale than Apple. You'd have a hard time getting your end product to the US, while Apple simply buys up enough air freight from China to screw up everyone else's supply chain. Apple doesn't go to the factory next door and buy screws when it needs them, they need millions of screws to very specific specs and sign deals to have them made by different suppliers for years…

For things like Retina LCDs they make strategic long-term arrangements. For screws and resistors &c, anyone can just buy them. Even Apple's demand for screws is not a significant fraction of China's output.

Re: The Beer Game -or- Why Apple Can’t Build iPads in the US

#113

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 05, 2012, 4:44 PM UTC

ctdonath wrote: post #20

diogenescynic wrote: post #4

Apple could afford to reopen the plants they had in Fremont, they just might not be able to produce 100% of their products there . From the NY Times article he refers to: paying American wages would add up to $65 to each iPhone’s expense. Fender does this--they offer you the choice of a Chinese, Mexican, Japanese, or American made guitar and just price accordingly. I would pay more for an iPhone that I knew was made…

Did you read the article? The whole point is that you can't just "reopen the plants" because those plants rely on other suppliers in a complex fast-moving supply chain; in China those suppliers are practically next door and have turnaround times measured in hours, while in CA the suppliers are miles, states, or even continents away with turnaround times measured in weeks . One hiccup in supply (say, something's wrong…

[deleted]

Re: The Beer Game -or- Why Apple Can’t Build iPads in the US

#114

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 05, 2012, 4:46 PM UTC

rbarooah wrote: post #12

diogenescynic wrote: post #4

Apple could afford to reopen the plants they had in Fremont, they just might not be able to produce 100% of their products there . From the NY Times article he refers to: paying American wages would add up to $65 to each iPhone’s expense. Fender does this--they offer you the choice of a Chinese, Mexican, Japanese, or American made guitar and just price accordingly. I would pay more for an iPhone that I knew was made…

I'm guessing you didn't read the piece. Wages are not the primary issue.

[deleted]

Re: The Beer Game -or- Why Apple Can’t Build iPads in the US

#115

Post by rbarooah » Thu, Apr 05, 2012, 4:46 PM UTC

mseebach wrote: post #107

rbarooah wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By talking about how the US and Britain had grown rich through trade and 'imperialist' protectionism and mentioning racism, the GP seemed to be implying that the poverty in China was somehow created by these western countries. Aren't those modern "buy British" or "buy American" movements voluntary? Might there not be good reasons for supporting those who are economically tied to you by culture and legal jurisdiction?

There is no possible way I can read the GP to mean that. He only mentions imperialism and racism after talking about, and with clear reference to, "Buy American". Most of the movements are voluntary for now, but not all: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestm... > Might there not be good reasons for supporting those who are economically tied to you by culture and legal jurisdiction? Yes and no.…

So, do you disagree with the point in the original article about the bail-out of the auto industry preventing a much wider loss?

Re: The Beer Game -or- Why Apple Can’t Build iPads in the US

#116

Post by siglesias » Thu, Apr 05, 2012, 4:46 PM UTC

jonknee wrote: post #76

crazygringo wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brazil is an exceptional case because of their import tariffs which are far, far higher than any other country in the world. From the linked article: "with domestic production of the iPhone and iPad providing a means by which Apple could avoid hefty import taxes in one of the world's most populous countries. " I don't know any of the details, but I would assume Foxconn is performing the absolute minimum level of asse…

> I don't know any of the details, but I would assume Foxconn is performing the absolute minimum level of assembly necessary to meet "domestic manufacturing" requirements. So it is in no way an effective counterexample. It's absolutely a counterexample. The iPad is assembled in China, but its parts are from all over the world. Now it's also assembled in Brazil. The supply chain in China isn't critical to the iPad's a…

I think that all that is going on with Brazil is that it's a miniature replica of the Foxconn plants in China, and as been mentioned numerous times, it's only because it would be MORE expensive to make them in China (however inexpensive) and ship to them to Brazil than to deal with an inflexible supply chain in Brazil and make them there. Even factoring in demand and supply volatility. If things don't go well for the plant, on the world scale, it's only Brazil. All of these were factored into the decision to build them there.

China is responsible for making every iPad in the world outside of Brazil. You can't assume the same amount of risk for that scale. If a component goes bad or if demand skyrockets, you want as many responsive factories around as possible to pick up the slack or to get you new components. Why wouldn't you want to locate your supply chain in China? Only if you have a situation that looks like Brazil--high import tariffs.

Re: The Beer Game -or- Why Apple Can’t Build iPads in the US

#117

Post by nknight » Thu, Apr 05, 2012, 4:47 PM UTC

excuse-me wrote: post #102

nknight wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Factory work just doesn't seem like a viable long-term career. The US middle class exists (or existed) in no small part precisely because of factory work. Many people have spent their entire lives in factories making a good living, some still do, more would if the jobs were available. Automation is the obvious argument against long-term viability, but most factory jobs have never been automated, and probably won't…

If people that work on an assembly line in a factory in the US are middle class - what's the definition of working class?

"Working class" is a terrible misnomer for "lower class" or "poor".

Re: The Beer Game -or- Why Apple Can’t Build iPads in the US

#118

Post by michael_h » Thu, Apr 05, 2012, 4:48 PM UTC

e40 wrote: post #99

bdunbar wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because we don't manufacture stuff anymore that this latency is an issue. I love it when people say that. I love it because I work for a company that very much does still make stuff in the US. We just make more stuff, with fewer people. We also make stuff in Asia, EU, Mexico. It's hard to stereotype who makes what - but generally sites in NA make the complicated, expensive widgets, Asia make the high volume not-…

So because you work for a company that makes stuff, my argument is invalid. You realize I wasn't saying we make nothing at all, right? It's that we are ever making less in the US and ever buying more made elsewhere.

You may want to check your data sources or clarify if you mean 'manufacturing jobs' or 'manufactured goods'. One of those has decreased significantly, while the other has increased...a lot.

Re: The Beer Game -or- Why Apple Can’t Build iPads in the US

#119

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Apr 05, 2012, 4:48 PM UTC

e40 wrote: post #99

bdunbar wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because we don't manufacture stuff anymore that this latency is an issue. I love it when people say that. I love it because I work for a company that very much does still make stuff in the US. We just make more stuff, with fewer people. We also make stuff in Asia, EU, Mexico. It's hard to stereotype who makes what - but generally sites in NA make the complicated, expensive widgets, Asia make the high volume not-…

So because you work for a company that makes stuff, my argument is invalid. You realize I wasn't saying we make nothing at all, right? It's that we are ever making less in the US and ever buying more made elsewhere.

[deleted]

Re: The Beer Game -or- Why Apple Can’t Build iPads in the US

#120

Post by excuse-me » Thu, Apr 05, 2012, 4:48 PM UTC

jonknee wrote: post #63

tlb wrote: post #17

Having gone through the painful exercise of building robots in the US, I appreciate the problem. Our end-end supply chain latency was 16 weeks, far too long to scale effectively to match demand. Many component changes we wanted to make would have created a 6-week delay, so we had to compromise. A place with a factory across the street that could make screws in 3 hours sounds like heaven.

You were also operating at an entirely different scale than Apple. You'd have a hard time getting your end product to the US, while Apple simply buys up enough air freight from China to screw up everyone else's supply chain. Apple doesn't go to the factory next door and buy screws when it needs them, they need millions of screws to very specific specs and sign deals to have them made by different suppliers for years…

One of the examples ( in the original article that this posts copies ) Apple changed the glass on the screen with 6weeks until launch. Corning had opened a factory nearby to make the glass and were able to change the screen shape quickly another nearby company was able to drop everything and make new gaskets.

It takes 6weeks to ship product from Corning's US factory to China.