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Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

theeyewall.com

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Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#11
> So how did every reliable model we use miss this? That’s for graduate students and researchers to answer in the coming years, because I have no formal idea.

Would love to see followup on this. Wish there were some way to like bookmark or something and come back in a few years.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#12

For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…

> Adding energy to the system Best estimates I've found to date: [ EDIT: 0.6-0.8 ] * Petawatts * of extra energy circulating in the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic changes to radiative forcing. EDIT: For the people downvoting this because "watts are units of power not energy", please read the Wikipedia page on radiative forcing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing For the people downvoting because…

Watts aren’t energy, so no idea what this means.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#13

For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…

While I admire your ardor, and agree with you that anthropogenic global warming is a serious problem, your explanation lacks a specific mechanism, and the disrespect you show towards the experts is reprehensible.

I found these facts in the article interesting:

- This is not actually unprecedented -- hurricane Patricia in 2015 did the same thing, more intensely.

- "Sea surface temperatures were close to 31°C over Otis’s path, which is a few degrees above normal. While not the primary cause of Otis’s rapid intensification, they did not hurt."

- Unusual placement of the hurricane relative to the jet stream seems to be the main cause

(Geography BA, Earth science PhD)

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#14
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And we have 10 to 20 years before effects from current emissions are felt: https://earth.org/data_visualization/the-time-lag-of-climate... As COVID-19 showed us, humans aren't great at dealing with delayed effects.

Especially when we really, really don't want to.

Tropical storms are not airborne. Continue washing your hands

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#15

For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…

It is strange, but it’s not. My friends keep asking me why it seems like the weather predictions are always off lately. I tell them because they have no climate models for the state of the climate that we’re living in right now. They’re all based on past climate.

so this weather forecaster is just doing the same thing, he’s trying to predict future events on past performance.

What they need to do is start looking right in front of their face like you said.

And they need to get some testicles and start screaming that this is a problem at the top of their lungs. And then they need to quit their jobs at these network companies that all advertise for fossil fuel companies.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#16

For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…

> Adding energy to the system Best estimates I've found to date: [ EDIT: 0.6-0.8 ] * Petawatts * of extra energy circulating in the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic changes to radiative forcing. EDIT: For the people downvoting this because "watts are units of power not energy", please read the Wikipedia page on radiative forcing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing For the people downvoting because…

I think you mean Joules?

A Watt is a joule of energy transferred over one second, i.e. they're a rate.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#17

For a weather forecaster this is a really strange take. Anybody who understands what the big words 'climate change' mean, could have predicted this. HAVE predicted this. I personally have predicted this and I'm not even a weather forecaster, I just know what chaos theory is. Adding energy to the system produces a wider range of possible outcomes. This is absolutely one of the possible outcomes. A few degrees less war…

While I admire your ardor, and agree with you that anthropogenic global warming is a serious problem, your explanation lacks a specific mechanism, and the disrespect you show towards the experts is reprehensible. I found these facts in the article interesting: - This is not actually unprecedented -- hurricane Patricia in 2015 did the same thing, more intensely. - "Sea surface temperatures were close to 31°C over Otis…

And even if completely true, it’s a useless factoid - we need to understand the physics of how these things work and are working and are changing if we want to continue to predict them accurately.

Re: Trying to make sense of why Otis exploded en route to Acapulco

#20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Adding energy to the system Best estimates I've found to date: [ EDIT: 0.6-0.8 ] * Petawatts * of extra energy circulating in the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic changes to radiative forcing. EDIT: For the people downvoting this because "watts are units of power not energy", please read the Wikipedia page on radiative forcing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing For the people downvoting because…

Watts aren’t energy, so no idea what this means.

Sufferable people know how to google instead of commenting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing
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