21–30 of 261 posts
I don't know, do all the unemployed people in a America right now want to work on assembly lines in factories? I know, just because I don't want to doesn't mean everyone else thinks that way, but it just doesn't seem like the correct long-term fix for unemployment. Factory work just doesn't seem like a viable long-term career. I suppose it's the non-hourly-wage assembly-line jobs that come with manufacturing that are…
Will 3d printing and manufacturing advances (Foxconn can hire 3,000 employees overnight, but robotics lower labor needs) make the supply chain effect less important, lowering the costs of moving manufacturing back to the US? Will they come back to be closer to retailers?
It could take three weeks of round-the-clock work to reprogram an assembly line of robots to perform a task a different way, to work out all the problems with a new process.
If you have people it only takes a ten minute demonstration and everyone's going to do it the new way.
Advances in machine vision have made the automated assembly line a lot better, but the tolerances are still extremely strict compared to people.
I don't know, do all the unemployed people in a America right now want to work on assembly lines in factories? I know, just because I don't want to doesn't mean everyone else thinks that way, but it just doesn't seem like the correct long-term fix for unemployment. Factory work just doesn't seem like a viable long-term career. I suppose it's the non-hourly-wage assembly-line jobs that come with manufacturing that are…
The US middle class exists (or existed) in no small part precisely because of factory work. Many people have spent their entire lives in factories making a good living, some still do, more would if the jobs were available.
Automation is the obvious argument against long-term viability, but most factory jobs have never been automated, and probably won't be for years yet -- they've just moved.
And don't assume everybody can work in an office, nor assume everyone wants to. My father, who actually does work in an office, has for years, and is well respected in his job, would rather be building houses.
Will 3d printing and manufacturing advances (Foxconn can hire 3,000 employees overnight, but robotics lower labor needs) make the supply chain effect less important, lowering the costs of moving manufacturing back to the US? Will they come back to be closer to retailers?
That is an interesting theory but I would guess that the real reason is their devalued currency which allows apple to save a huge percentage on production. Sure cheap labor helps, but is cheap partially due to the currency difference. Despite anecdotal stories, The US still makes up 20% of world manufacturing and retains its spot as the global leader. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States The colo…
How is it that you accept that 'colocation theory' explains Silicon Valley, but you dismiss it as explaining Shenzhen without explaining why one is different from the other?
Shenzhen can also produce that supply chain, but they are no more capable than a lot of American cities.
What Shenzhen has that America doesn't are cheap labor, and a devalued currency.
Silicon Valley is different primarily because there is no other city with the concentration of brilliant engineers vs others. NYC for example probably has more computer engineers by numbers, but there are more opportunities for those engineers to make huge pay in other industries outside of startups. The fact that Silicon Valley is full of amazing engineers who are excited to work in the tech industry means that it is the best location for your startup to locate (relatively, and if you need a lot of engineers, not all startups do, some need more sales focused or science focus etc and there are better cities for those companies).
I don't know, do all the unemployed people in a America right now want to work on assembly lines in factories? I know, just because I don't want to doesn't mean everyone else thinks that way, but it just doesn't seem like the correct long-term fix for unemployment. Factory work just doesn't seem like a viable long-term career. I suppose it's the non-hourly-wage assembly-line jobs that come with manufacturing that are…
Our economy has been transitioning from a goods/manufacturing-based one to a service-based economy for years. The question in my mind is whether or not this is sustainable in the sense of being able to provide decent, livable wages for the vast majority of the US population in a globalized economy. My gut is that isn't - at some point we need to make something real, not just sell each other services while a (relatively) small elite design things that are then made overseas.
The other thing to realize is that manufacturing carries with it a lot more than just assembly line jobs. Factories need some managers, but perhaps more importantly, they also need skilled technicians and engineers to optimize processes, troubleshoot problems, work on complicated assemblies, etc. I think it's reflecting a bit of an elite bias to say that "Factory work just doesn't seem like a viable long-term career"
I don't have numbers to back this up, but I think in general it would be a good thing for America as a whole, and for the American middle class in particular, if we began to move back toward being a country of "makers" rather than a country of "service providers."
Apple could afford to reopen the plants they had in Fremont, they just might not be able to produce 100% of their products there . From the NY Times article he refers to: paying American wages would add up to $65 to each iPhone’s expense. Fender does this--they offer you the choice of a Chinese, Mexican, Japanese, or American made guitar and just price accordingly. I would pay more for an iPhone that I knew was made…
Did you read the article? The whole point is that you can't just "reopen the plants" because those plants rely on other suppliers in a complex fast-moving supply chain; in China those suppliers are practically next door and have turnaround times measured in hours, while in CA the suppliers are miles, states, or even continents away with turnaround times measured in weeks . One hiccup in supply (say, something's wrong…
Or they could just do like Dell does - require suppliers to carry inventory (on the suppliers' books) within minutes of their factories. You can do that in America just as easily as you can in China.
Will 3d printing and manufacturing advances (Foxconn can hire 3,000 employees overnight, but robotics lower labor needs) make the supply chain effect less important, lowering the costs of moving manufacturing back to the US? Will they come back to be closer to retailers?
The robot tech might be developed in the US (or where ever) but is still built in China. That makes sense, because it's used in China. And as expertise in building stuff concentrates in China all they need to do is keep quality high, keep costs low, and maybe keep an eye on human rights, and they'll keep the jobs. The barriers to US companies become higher. You've got to get the machines. You then need people to run…
If we assume raw materials are bought on the global market (so same price in the US and China), then the only cost variables are labor and shipping to market. Once Robotics drives the difference in labor costs below the difference in shipping costs robots in the US makes more sense than laborers in China. There is an inflection point even if you assume the use of robotics in China.