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The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology (2021)

cacm.acm.org

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Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology (2021)

#61

Post by tuatoru »

rrr_oh_man wrote: post #60
tuatoru wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who said anything about her becoming a programmer? An interior decorator, or a gardener, or a nurse aide, or a yoga instructor, or a nail technician: they all add more to human welfare than this task. If she wants to become an architect, or a water system engineer, more power to her!

Not disagreeing with your point in general, but: Not everyone can become an architect or water systems engineer at 50, after having worked a "general assistant" type office job for many years. I think that (and its consequences) might be the biggest short term societal risk of automation in an aging society. How would you solve this problem?

If there are resources available, some entrepreneur will figure out a way to make use of them.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology (2021)

#62

Post by sinuhe69 »

The tittle is misleading. It should read: The Decline of CPU As a General Computing Device.

But then, I guess not many people would mind it.

A computer? I consider all forms of computing units today as computer: micro-controller, single board computer, CPU +/- GPU +/-Neutral Engines etc.

What about the math-coprocessor in the 90s? Did they cause a decline of computer as a general computing device? Of course not.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology (2021)

#63

Post by arvinsim »

omscs99 wrote: post #56
ethbr1 wrote: post #3

I understand this is ACM, but I would say the decline has strictly been a failure of software . Specifically, corporate IT's failure to deliver general purpose development tools usable by anyone in a company to make computers do work for them (aka programming). There's still a ton of general value that could be delivered by general purpose processors/computers. But instead, most non-programmers live in a Kafkaesque r…

Hypothetically, if she figured out how to automate it on her own, would she get any kind of reward for it? If not, why should she automate it? Another example, if there’s some repetitive task that you automate at a software dev job, would you get rewarded for figuring out how to automate it? The answer is obviously dependent on culture, at my current gig you just get brushed off Seems to me like you’re assuming that…

> Hypothetically, if she figured out how to automate it on her own, would she get any kind of reward for it? If not, why should she automate.

The reward is more time. Now where that time is spent is another story.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology (2021)

#64

Post by asdff »

bee_rider wrote: post #13
ethbr1 wrote: post #3

I understand this is ACM, but I would say the decline has strictly been a failure of software . Specifically, corporate IT's failure to deliver general purpose development tools usable by anyone in a company to make computers do work for them (aka programming). There's still a ton of general value that could be delivered by general purpose processors/computers. But instead, most non-programmers live in a Kafkaesque r…

It would be nice if there was a general expectation by now that people would have a sort of “intro to scripting” type class in high school. Not everyone has to be a programmer, in the same way not everyone needs to be an author, but everybody ought to be able to write a memo, email, or shopping list.

Take it a step further and teach actual data analysis and statistics that are not coin flip/compound interest plug and chug into the calculator problems. No matter what sort of job you do in life, being able to pull a csv from all your different credit or debit accounts and draw some inferences from that would be so useful.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology (2021)

#66

Post by asdff »

userbinator wrote: post #24
ethbr1 wrote: post #3

I understand this is ACM, but I would say the decline has strictly been a failure of software . Specifically, corporate IT's failure to deliver general purpose development tools usable by anyone in a company to make computers do work for them (aka programming). There's still a ton of general value that could be delivered by general purpose processors/computers. But instead, most non-programmers live in a Kafkaesque r…

What the fuck are we doing as a society, that this lady, with a machine that could compute the above in a fraction of a second, has to spend a decent chunk of her work time doing this? To put it bluntly: do you want her to be unemployed instead?

She will not be unemployed in this situation, nor will her peers in similar situations. Available labor is always gobbled up and not left idle for long. Case in point: we've obviated jobs like the horseshoe maker and the stable boy and yet unemployment rate today at 3.8% or so is half of what it was in the 1900s when we had all these horse and stable jobs.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology (2021)

#67

Post by asdff »

radlad wrote: post #30
tuatoru wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the "lump of labor" fallacy. If she turns up to work reliably, and stays on-task, there are no end of other things she could be doing that increase general welfare more than this.

Maybe, but I'm not sure everyone has the inclination to become a programmer. And the whole thread was about how computers should work for everyone, including this lady whose job could be automated. Which begs the question: do most people actually want general purpose computing? Or does the average human prefer "apps"?

If the average human were allowed to achieve its most base preferences, we'd all be a half ton in weight, floating around in chairs, stupefied at some screen, just as depicted in Wall-e.

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology (2021)

#68

Post by benrutter »

I don't know if there's good justification for this yet. The claim that computers are shifting from general (CPU) chips to more specialized (GPU) chips.

I'm not sure classifying GPU as "specialized" is right- it's essentially a chip that can do lots of small computations, rather than big ones like the CPU does. To me, the trend looks more like a shift from centralized to distributed models of computing. Which I think is also backed up by data processing tools like spark which distribute over multiple computers.

I saw a "SQL process unit" announced recently[1] which I guess really is a move towards specialized compute. I haven't heard of much uptake in it yet though, so I guess time will tell.

[1] https://www.neuroblade.com/product/

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology (2021)

#69

Post by HHC-Hunter »

arvinsim wrote: post #63
omscs99 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hypothetically, if she figured out how to automate it on her own, would she get any kind of reward for it? If not, why should she automate it? Another example, if there’s some repetitive task that you automate at a software dev job, would you get rewarded for figuring out how to automate it? The answer is obviously dependent on culture, at my current gig you just get brushed off Seems to me like you’re assuming that…

> Hypothetically, if she figured out how to automate it on her own, would she get any kind of reward for it? If not, why should she automate. The reward is more time. Now where that time is spent is another story.

Sounds like you're implying that that newly spared time would be hers to spend and not her employers?

Re: The decline of computers as a general-purpose technology (2021)

#70

Post by asdff »

rrr_oh_man wrote: post #60
tuatoru wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who said anything about her becoming a programmer? An interior decorator, or a gardener, or a nurse aide, or a yoga instructor, or a nail technician: they all add more to human welfare than this task. If she wants to become an architect, or a water system engineer, more power to her!

Not disagreeing with your point in general, but: Not everyone can become an architect or water systems engineer at 50, after having worked a "general assistant" type office job for many years. I think that (and its consequences) might be the biggest short term societal risk of automation in an aging society. How would you solve this problem?

Why can't you become these things at 50? Considering you can become them at 23, having worked perhaps in fast food for a few years prior?
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