Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

electrek.co

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

131–140 of 217 posts

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#131

Post by jliptzin »

billfor wrote: post #42
macNchz wrote: post #10

A couple of comments on the article point out that if gas stations start closing due to reduced demand, it will accelerate the effect by making it more cumbersome to own a gas car. Recently, some of the industrial area near my apartment in NYC was rezoned for housing, and nearly all of the local gas stations were torn down (not because of low demand but because a 15 story building would be more profitable). The resul…

Where do you see convenient charging stations? Tesla shows 4 superchargers in all of Manhattan and 3 in Brooklyn, not including 3rd party stations that can take 2 hours to charge the car. What is the population of Manhattan and Brooklyn?

I have had a tesla for 4 years, I have used super chargers maybe a dozen times total. And I do about 15,000 miles/yr.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#132

Post by semi-extrinsic »

MostlyStable wrote: post #98
goles wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you be willing to share what the car has cost in total (maint, elec, insur, ect) over the years? Genuinely curious.

Not who you originally asked, but I bought one of the cheaper EVs earlier this year (Hyundai Kona, slightly more expensive than the Bolt but in a similar class). With fuel savings included, (which, for our use case was between $100-$130/month), it was hard to find an ICE vehicle that met our needs for cheaper when we were shopping. We did have to compromise slightly on size (it's smaller than we wanted) in a way that…

> We did have to compromise slightly on size

This is my main trouble with EVs available so far. If I want something that's not substantially smaller than what our current Ford Galaxy has, and I want to still have the tow bar and roof box, there are very few EVs available and they cost $$$.

We're talking stuff like the Nio ES8 at $70k+, or the Mercedes EQS at $105k+.

Or you can go down the van route and get a Peugeot e-Traveller ($65k) or Mercedes EQV ($85k) or something like this, you get even more space but your range is abysmal at 150 to 200 miles.

Meanwhile on the ICE side you can get the spacious Dacia Jogger for just $15k new! Then you have $40k+ left to spend on gas and maintenance...

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#133

Post by mtlmtlmtlmtl »

lb1lf wrote: post #123
mtlmtlmtlmtl wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vast majority of Norway's power is hydro power with some wind and solar. There's a single coal plant on Svalbard which is about to be shut down, and oil/gas is used mainly by the oil industry to generate power for their own use on-site. Though this is also being phased out in the future.

-Actually, I believe the Svalbard coal power plant was shut down earlier this week; the plant in question now runs diesel generators instead. While not very green, it is slightly better than burning coal.

Ah, nice! I knew I remember reading about it in the news just recently, but I guess I misremembered the timing. Shows you how fast information decays I guess.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#134

Post by vGPU »

macNchz wrote: post #112
goles wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the least expensive EV one could buy in the middle of nowhere North America? I'm open to anyones knowledge in this area I dont have but our primary mode of transportation when we were struggling was a $2,000 USD 30 year old Toyota. If you don't think EVs are a luxury than we both need some clarity.

On cars.com right now it looks like the electric price floor is roughly $5k, which gets you a 10 year old Nissan Leaf, though it looks like they mostly have lower mileage than comparable-age ICE cars. Used car prices have ballooned in recent years, so I’m not sure how much lower you can go without buying a complete heap. As a comparison I looked at the cheapest Nissan Sentras and Versas on the market, which are about…

A car with a 40 mile effective range is not a realistic solution.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#135

Post by mschuster91 »

goles wrote: post #46
macNchz wrote: post #10

A couple of comments on the article point out that if gas stations start closing due to reduced demand, it will accelerate the effect by making it more cumbersome to own a gas car. Recently, some of the industrial area near my apartment in NYC was rezoned for housing, and nearly all of the local gas stations were torn down (not because of low demand but because a 15 story building would be more profitable). The resul…

Perhaps not applicable to NYC, but isnt it kind of troubling that people who cant afford a luxury vehicle (55-100k) could be put in a position where they have to spend more money (gas) to go fill up out of their way, taxed for being poor, or shut up and take public transit (if it even exists where they live)? Surely no one driving an EV ever got to their position to buy one driving an ICE. Edit: happy this comment in…

> Perhaps not applicable to NYC, but isnt it kind of troubling that people who cant afford a luxury vehicle (55-100k) could be put in a position where they have to spend more money (gas) to go fill up out of their way, taxed for being poor, or shut up and take public transit?

Base electric vehicles like the Fiat 500e can be had for ~35k [1], if all you're interested in is commuting without getting wet choose a Twizy for ~10k [2], and if you're fine with whatever and just need something cheap, get a motorcycle for ~5k.

[1] https://ev-database.org/car/1328/Fiat-500e-3plus1-42-kWh

[2] https://evcompare.io/cars/renault/renault_twizy/

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#136

Post by ctroein89 »

aftbit wrote: post #119
dromtrund wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A VW Golf starts at 35800€, and a VW ID.3 starts at 32800€, taxes included. Overall, electric cars are a bit cheaper than their counterparts, but not a lot. However, today, petrol is 2.15€/l and electricity is 0.013€/kWh. That's 11.20€/100km versus 0.185€/100km for the ID.3, literally two orders of magnitude cheaper. Everyone charges at home, and there's also a 40% discount in toll roads, which saves me about 8€ per…

What if you were going on a 2000km road trip?

That distance is London to Stockholm by road, which is going to be unfathomably far for most Europeans. Maybe that could be a road trip across the full length of Norway or Sweden, but generally that’s a once-in-a-lifetime multi-country road trip that one will want to enjoy.

I’ve travelled London to Stockholm before, and the only reason to do it is to travel with a family pet. Otherwise flying or taking the train will be faster, and cheaper.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#137

Post by badpun »

thelastgallon wrote: post #99
macNchz wrote: post #10

A couple of comments on the article point out that if gas stations start closing due to reduced demand, it will accelerate the effect by making it more cumbersome to own a gas car. Recently, some of the industrial area near my apartment in NYC was rezoned for housing, and nearly all of the local gas stations were torn down (not because of low demand but because a 15 story building would be more profitable). The resul…

Owning a gas car will become inconvenient and expensive very soon. The number of gas stations has gone down from 202K to 115K, ~50% down[1]. Gas stations make very little money on gas, most of their income is from people buying cigarette, lotteries, lotto, beer, beverages, and some trinkets in the store. All profits are at the margins. When foot traffic drops, even by 10 - 20%, gas stations are not viable. They can i…

The stations won't "collapse", but merely the number of them will start declining proportionally to the gas vehicles losing popularity (assuming it actually happens). This way, each of the remaining gas stations will have a greater share of the (decreased) foot trafic, thus still maintaining profitability.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#138

Post by harimau777 »

bigtex wrote: post #110

Have they found a replacement for plastic yet?

Depending on the application, aluminum, steel, wood, or cotton are all equal or superior to plastics. The only fairly common application that I know of where there's not a good non-plastic alternative is vegan cold weather clothing.

Personally, I think that plastic is mostly used for throwaway consumerism. We'd probably be better off if we went back to making things out of materials that could last.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#139

Post by lostlogin »

sokoloff wrote: post #107
goles wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you be willing to share what the car has cost in total (maint, elec, insur, ect) over the years? Genuinely curious.

I daily a 2015 LEAF, bought in Dec 2014. It had a warranty battery repair (to replace a failing module, free of charge to me but a possible concern long-term). As the guy who turns all the wrenches on the family cars, it’s been incredibly low maintenance. Wiper blades twice, cabin air filter three times, and I had to charge the 12V battery once in the peak of COVID shutdowns when the car sat for 8 weeks or so with a…

The newer model Leaf has CarPlay, and as you say, it’s a deciding factor in which car we take.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#140

Post by lostlogin »

seltzered_ wrote: post #124

It may be worth considering that while Norway's 'motor fuel sales' went down supposedly their 'oil consumption' use per EIA has remained flat (and supposedly gone up recently) - see this chart by Nate Hagens in https://twitter.com/NJHagens/status/1669072120939159553 which is figure 2 in https://fictitiouscapital.substack.com/p/a-sticky-situation-... which says "But look at the interesting case study of Norway, where…

I can see the list of things they use it for, but why is oil consumption flat lining? What is increasing their usage (as ICE car usage declines)?
Post reply on HN