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Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

electrek.co

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Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#41
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a country of five million spread over a significant amount of land area? My metropolitan area is like 6 million people, but only 500K lives within the city of Atlanta.

so the poster is right, your city/metro is larger than Norway, population wise. And they are super wealthy to boot. It makes it less interesting in the context of switching to EVs.

Doesn't it make it more interesting, or at least interesting from a different perspective.

Vast cities are interesting because it's challenging to provide enough charging capacity for a "small" area, but also because there are a myriad of transportation option that could effectively complement cars.

Countries like Norway is interesting because the cars are need because low population density makes other options to expensive and because now the cars need a much longer range. It's also interesting because, regardless of peoples opinion about the size of Norway, it is a country. Imagine the changes in government policies that are because possible when gas powered cars are no longer a thing to consider. Norway also taxes fuel, that money will be missing from the government budget in the future. It's going to be harder to explain that you're taxing electricity in a country that gets a large amount of it's power from hydro and windmills. Or how about the fact that Norway is a huge oil producer... is it morally right to ban gas powered cars at home, but sell oil abroad?

It's hugely interesting precisely because Norway is an entire country.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#42
post #10

A couple of comments on the article point out that if gas stations start closing due to reduced demand, it will accelerate the effect by making it more cumbersome to own a gas car. Recently, some of the industrial area near my apartment in NYC was rezoned for housing, and nearly all of the local gas stations were torn down (not because of low demand but because a 15 story building would be more profitable). The resul…

Where do you see convenient charging stations? Tesla shows 4 superchargers in all of Manhattan and 3 in Brooklyn, not including 3rd party stations that can take 2 hours to charge the car. What is the population of Manhattan and Brooklyn?

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#44
post #5
post #2

Norway is more of a city than a country, and a rather wealthy one that is difficult to draw conclusions from when it comes to consumer spending patterns. I'd brush this off as not that interesting. However, if we're looking for oil death spirals in Norway, I recommend: https://crudeoilpeak.info/global-peak/norway-peak-oil

Somewhat larger and with more fjords than your average city

How many fjords does the average city have?

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you have to drive 15 minutes there and 15 minutes back, that's not faster than a fast-charge top-up at the fast charge point down the street, though. There's a critical density below which if you have a charge point nearby the nuisance of "going out for gas" and not being able to do anything else during that time isn't worth it compared to plugging in your car, and then just walking away for an hour. Especially if…

I don't think most people make a special trip just to get gas. It's usually a quick added stop along the way of another trip, which is less of a nuisance than having to make two small walks to move and plug/unplug your car.

The GP was responding to a point about the closure of gas stations accelerating the decline of ICE vehicles. If all the stations near where you normally travel close, then you are forced to make a special trip to fill up.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#46
post #10

A couple of comments on the article point out that if gas stations start closing due to reduced demand, it will accelerate the effect by making it more cumbersome to own a gas car. Recently, some of the industrial area near my apartment in NYC was rezoned for housing, and nearly all of the local gas stations were torn down (not because of low demand but because a 15 story building would be more profitable). The resul…

Perhaps not applicable to NYC, but isnt it kind of troubling that people who cant afford a luxury vehicle (55-100k) could be put in a position where they have to spend more money (gas) to go fill up out of their way, taxed for being poor, or shut up and take public transit (if it even exists where they live)?

Surely no one driving an EV ever got to their position to buy one driving an ICE.

Edit: happy this comment inspired lots of spirited discussion. Would like to stress the "Perhaps not in NYC" part and if this trend spreads to say Oklahoma.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ICE cars don't need to fill up near home, because it is so quick. EVs ideally fill up where they're going to be unattended, because it takes longer. It makes sense that you'd find more EV charging in residential areas and more gas stations near where people travel and work.

if you have to drive 15 minutes there and 15 minutes back, that's not faster than a fast-charge top-up at the fast charge point down the street, though. There's a critical density below which if you have a charge point nearby the nuisance of "going out for gas" and not being able to do anything else during that time isn't worth it compared to plugging in your car, and then just walking away for an hour. Especially if…

I don’t know anyone that often drives somewhere specifically to get gas. As long as you occasionally drive past a gas station during your travels you just stop in for 3-5 minutes and fill the car up.

Even if there isn’t one directly on your route, we’re talking a long ways off I think that you need to travel 15 or minutes from every point of your trip to each a gas station. Like, we've reached such a low density that the entire distribution network is barely even sustainable anymore.

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#48
post #2

Norway is more of a city than a country, and a rather wealthy one that is difficult to draw conclusions from when it comes to consumer spending patterns. I'd brush this off as not that interesting. However, if we're looking for oil death spirals in Norway, I recommend: https://crudeoilpeak.info/global-peak/norway-peak-oil

here you can see population density map of Norway Sweden and Finland. It is quite spread out

https://mapsontheweb.zoom-maps.com/post/58777074043/populati...

Re: Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

#49
post #42
post #10

A couple of comments on the article point out that if gas stations start closing due to reduced demand, it will accelerate the effect by making it more cumbersome to own a gas car. Recently, some of the industrial area near my apartment in NYC was rezoned for housing, and nearly all of the local gas stations were torn down (not because of low demand but because a 15 story building would be more profitable). The resul…

Where do you see convenient charging stations? Tesla shows 4 superchargers in all of Manhattan and 3 in Brooklyn, not including 3rd party stations that can take 2 hours to charge the car. What is the population of Manhattan and Brooklyn?

Just a friendly reminder that Tesla isn’t the only show in town. Chargepoint shows several thousand charging stations just in manhattan.
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