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"No, it's less effort than that"

smartguess.is

41–50 of 388 posts

Re: "No, it's less effort than that"

#41
If developers did not approach projects with the goal of adding acronyms to their resumes and infuse every project with the latest cargo cult du jour it would improve the ability to predict timelines.

Pick boring technology, that the team is already comfortable with, when possible. Keep the teams as similar as possible, Keep running projects the same way, when possible

I am not saying it will get things perfect, but it will be an improvement.

Re: "No, it's less effort than that"

#42

The only magic wand in software development is to simplify requirements. The requirements are always wrong: too broad, too vague, based on invalid assumptions The real genius is to propose a simplified solution, by discarding some assumptions. This is the best and only way to shrink the schedule

This is why Professional Communications is so critical for software developers, and exactly why your manager absolutely does not want you to have such skills: you'll be able to explain why their requests are manipulative, unrealistic, and frankly pointy haired wishful nonsense.

Re: "No, it's less effort than that"

#43
post #7

A valuable discussion to have is about how to change the scope so that the cost/return tradeoff is right for your stakeholders. I've definitely seen devs assume too much needs to be done, just like I've seen non-devs ignore key parts of the problem that push up the time. Sometimes it's trying to make a general solution when actually what's needed is someone to sit down with a spreadsheet for a day. > There is back-an…

>but this is the issue addressed with planning poker. It isn't. Having a team which is both intimately familiar enough with the set of features as a whole, and understands how to use the system to get around the inevitable 'A does it in X while B does it in X*3', are both prerequisites. Suffice to say, with the amount of discussion based around Scrum being done wrong alone, neither of those are even remotely a given.…

If people are unable to solve the problem themselves but instead defer to someone else’s estimate then they should not be participating in planning poker

Re: "No, it's less effort than that"

#44
post #22
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's just not true. It _can_ be waterfall, but story points are everywhere in agile development.

Story points are for relative sizing are not estimates. That's why you use story points and not hours or days. They're for re-arranging the priority of stories and deciding which ones to do or not.

> relative sizing are not estimates.

Relative sizing is still an estimate.

> They're for re-arranging the priority of stories and deciding which ones to do or not.

Hard disagree - that's what priority is for. Story points are an _estimate_ for how much we can do in a period.

Re: "No, it's less effort than that"

#45
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>but this is the issue addressed with planning poker. It isn't. Having a team which is both intimately familiar enough with the set of features as a whole, and understands how to use the system to get around the inevitable 'A does it in X while B does it in X*3', are both prerequisites. Suffice to say, with the amount of discussion based around Scrum being done wrong alone, neither of those are even remotely a given.…

I mean it is literally the issue that planning poker addresses - identify differing expectations without influencing the initial estimate. People can then totally ignore that, and ignoring something makes it pointless, but that's true of literally anything. It identifies a lack of a shared understanding of the task. Or framed differently, it identifies when you probably all have the same expectation and you can move…

That still doesn't solve the prerequisites being exceedingly rare in most teams. A system solving an issue under rare circumstances is barely worth considering, doubly so if it doesn't solve the issue in your specific circumstance. That's, again, disregarding that the modus operandi of most management teams directly interferes with planning poker itself (high turnover, high focus on increasing scope and scope per person).

Or we can dive into technicalities where it technically does solve the issue but does it poorly, and just happens to be better than any other system we know (also questionable).

Re: "No, it's less effort than that"

#46

If developers did not approach projects with the goal of adding acronyms to their resumes and infuse every project with the latest cargo cult du jour it would improve the ability to predict timelines. Pick boring technology, that the team is already comfortable with, when possible. Keep the teams as similar as possible, Keep running projects the same way, when possible I am not saying it will get things perfect, but…

Developers do not choose the tools. Not in agile/scrum companies. Heck, they are not even allowed to choose the variable names by themselves.

Re: "No, it's less effort than that"

#47
post #40

Never reduced an estimate (without change of scope) in my whole career. Didn't do me any harm.

TBH missing estimates also didn't do me any harm. That's why I'm always tempted to agree... and then ignore all pressure to deliver.

"Your estimate, your problem"

Re: "No, it's less effort than that"

#48
Except the meteorologist has no inherent incentive to predict a specific outcome. A dev who will need to deliver against the resulting target deadline has a powerful incentive to overstate. Even more so if they think they’ll subsequently be pushed to revise downwards

Rubbish metaphor

Re: "No, it's less effort than that"

#49
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of curiosity, how did you came out with this formula? What’s the math behind it?

Crude estimate based on some self evident truths: Logarithms for number of people and communication chain come from network theory because network size and network distances slow down information flow. New technologies bring in unexpected delays and problems that rapidly accumulate in nonlinear ways. If bring in 20 people to work with new programming language, new library stack, etc. everything slows down to crawl.

From the other angle, you can see how velocity is impacted by using "boring tech", keeping teams small (two pizza team), clearly identifying stakeholder roles, creating efficient communication channels. It's a pretty useful model.

Re: "No, it's less effort than that"

#50
post #21

1975: Fred Brook's wrote[1]: “The bearing of a child takes nine months, no matter how many women are assigned.” Can't get better than this [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mythical_Man-Month

But more and more women are working faster. Later preterm rates are on the rise for quite some time.

"The late preterm singleton rate rose at an average annual rate of 2% each year from 2014 to 2019 (from 5.67% to 6.32%). The decline in the late preterm rate between 2019 and 2020 (6.32% to 6.30%) was not significant."

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db430.pdf

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