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It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

natesilver.net

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Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The claim about airburst weapons seems like a massive reach. The tops of the palm trees are unscathed, the nearby buildings have more lower than upper windows blown-out. But if they didn’t make this claim they’d have ruled out all Israeli weapons so they just shoved it in there, despite being vanishingly unlikely. I’m pretty sure this is a self-serving tactic to obfuscate how obviously wrong they were initially and r…

I’ve yet to hear a good explanation for how a fragment of a PIJ rocket could cause vastly, like an order of magnitude+, more damage than any that has ever landed in Israel. But what I have seen is: Israel bomb UNRWA schools; issue evacuation orders for a bunch of hospitals, including this one in question; provide a number of inconsistent explanations and equivocations in the hours and days since; bomb the southern ha…

This is a photo of "ground zero" hosted by NBC News.[0] I'm not sure what "an order of magnitude+" more destruction is referring to. Perhaps you can enlighten us. From what I can tell, there is pretty minimal destruction seen here, and most of it can be explained by a small initial explosion with fire spreading vehicle to vehicle.

[0]https://media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com/image/upload/t_fit-760w,f...

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#232
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The working poor don't have any money for the government to take. The middle and upper-middle classes have plenty of money for the government to take, but not enough to afford expensive accountants and business formations to shield their assets, or at least not enough assets to make that cheaper than just paying taxes. The wealthy have tons of money for the government to take, but can spend tens of thousands up to mi…

> wealthy have tons of money for the government to take, but can spend tens of thousands up to millions to shield it so they can't I used to advocate for doubling all tax brackets. A friend ran the numbers: the result is volatility. The middle class has stable earnings in a way the wealthy do not. That doesn’t mean we can’t tax them more. But there is a trade off.

On an individual level maybe but the top two quintiles have made more money year after year regardless: https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/household-income-...

It's not like the top echelons of earners have a bad year and GDP plummets or anything; I'm not sure what "volatility" means in this context as far as tax revenues but I can't imagine it results in huge variability or uncertainty.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#233
post #44

I’m still not sure what to believe on that story. It’s not like Israel to intentionally blow up a hospital full of civilians. It’s not unlike them to do it on accident. It’s not unlike Hamas to blow up anything (intentionally or otherwise) and Israel and the US would both probably say they did it whether they did or did not. The story would look the same no matter who did it.

The evidence from reputable OSINT orgs like Bellingcat is pretty-much showing evidence that this was an accident on the part of Palistinian fighters. There are multiple videos showing a volley of rockets were launched from within Gaza (not from Bellingcat, but other OSINT groups -- Bellingcat not ready to make a final conclusion here). One of the rockets appeared to fail while it was rising - it swerved wildly and th…

[dead]

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve yet to hear a good explanation for how a fragment of a PIJ rocket could cause vastly, like an order of magnitude+, more damage than any that has ever landed in Israel. But what I have seen is: Israel bomb UNRWA schools; issue evacuation orders for a bunch of hospitals, including this one in question; provide a number of inconsistent explanations and equivocations in the hours and days since; bomb the southern ha…

This is a photo of "ground zero" hosted by NBC News.[0] I'm not sure what "an order of magnitude+" more destruction is referring to. Perhaps you can enlighten us. From what I can tell, there is pretty minimal destruction seen here, and most of it can be explained by a small initial explosion with fire spreading vehicle to vehicle. [0] https://media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com/image/upload/t_fit-760w,f...

It’s clear that 500 people didn’t die from this. Which feels ugly to say, denying death figures in a bombing campaign which is clearly horrific and has killed thousands so far, but I just can’t imagine it. It’s kind of astounding that just by anchoring with the idea that this explosion killed 500 people, and the large eruption of fire (not indicative of an Israeli bomb, whether air burst or not), many many people have bought into this being a massive blast. It was not. Absolutely something achievable by a moderately sized rocket, possibly augmented by either rocket fuel or a diesel/oxygen tank on the ground.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#235
post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I try to limit my intake of news, and so most of the story I only hear from my Tangle subscription[0] which has had a pretty even take on it. I've been impressed with them, so far, but of course everyone has biases and you have to take everything with a grain of salt, etc, etc. Anyway, I agree that "Hamas said so" is one side, and it's weak. And on the other side you have the still-standing hospital. You also have Bi…

If you were some shadowy organisation conducting psy-ops and you were gonna go to the effort of constructing a credible fake video for something like that, would you not bother to get the friggin' timestamp right?

If you are paid to do a job but don't agree with the script that would be something you would get away with.

Also see: BBC building 7 collapsed before it exploded.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No I don't. But instead of providing nameless fake experts to try and dispute the recording content they should just say it's impossible to verify so not acceptable as evidence in either direction. Although I wouldn't mind interviews with actual experts, but saying "independent journalists" with no names or anything definitely turns on red flags. But ignoring the recording I still find the evidence strong enough to a…

I came to the opposite conclusion. We can probably just agree to disagree on this.

That's fine, although I would be curious to hear what made you reach the opposite conclusion.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The claim about airburst weapons seems like a massive reach. The tops of the palm trees are unscathed, the nearby buildings have more lower than upper windows blown-out. But if they didn’t make this claim they’d have ruled out all Israeli weapons so they just shoved it in there, despite being vanishingly unlikely. I’m pretty sure this is a self-serving tactic to obfuscate how obviously wrong they were initially and r…

I’ve yet to hear a good explanation for how a fragment of a PIJ rocket could cause vastly, like an order of magnitude+, more damage than any that has ever landed in Israel. But what I have seen is: Israel bomb UNRWA schools; issue evacuation orders for a bunch of hospitals, including this one in question; provide a number of inconsistent explanations and equivocations in the hours and days since; bomb the southern ha…

Agreed. Very hard to agree with people subscribing to this timeline:

1. IDF warns hospital director to evacuate hospital.

2. Israel bombs hosptial in question causing major damage and injuring four doctors.

3. IDF calls hospital director asking why hospital still hasn’t been evacuated and demands imminent evacuation. Director says it’s impossible due to patient needing intensive care.

4. Hospital gets bombed. 400+ people die. Hamas-affiliated group did it.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#238
How do people subscribe to this logic?

1. IDF warns hospital director to evacuate hospital.

2. Israel bombs hosptial in question causing major damage and injuring four doctors.

3. IDF calls hospital director asking why hospital still hasn’t been evacuated and demands imminent evacuation. Director says it’s impossible due to patient needing intensive care.

4. Hospital gets bombed. 400+ people die.

Israel says Hamas-affiliated group did it?

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#239
post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you mean this Church you can clearly see still standing in the photo? https://nitter.net/Osinttechnical/status/1715361491006747073 So you believed a Church was bombed today when in fact it was a building next to it and Church is fine. What does that tell you about sources you use for news? > maybe stop bombing civilians There are missile barrages incoming from Gaza daily, civilians dont shoot rockets. Civilian bui…

I read Reuters [1]. They quote the Orthodox Church itself: > A Greek Orthodox church in the Gaza Strip which was sheltering hundreds of displaced Palestinians was hit overnight by an Israeli air strike, the Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem said, and Palestinian health officials said 16 people were killed. > There was no word from the Church on a death toll. > The Israeli military said a part of the church was damag…

So pictures taken by Hamas and journalists are no evidence for you of continued existence of the Church. How about video feed from the jet dropping the bomb? From Greek Orthodox source no less:

https://twitter.com/greekcitytimes/status/171550351226695719...

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#240
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is your actual counterposition here? That yelling fire in a theater is dangerous and that is quite literally what the NYT and NPR did. The falsehoods they repeated caused immediate panic and rioting in many Muslim communities and countries, they’ve burned down synagogues and Israeli embassies over a false story.

“Burns down Synagogues” and “reads NPR” are probably largely disjoint sets of people. I’m Jewish, and I’m exceedingly sensitive to the volatility of the situation. My relatives’ lives depend on it. I do not find NPR’s language particularly objectionable.

Perhaps they listen to the US congressional representative who repeated the same untruths as NPR and AP and the New York Times?
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