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It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

natesilver.net

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Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#221

Post by jahewson »

jahewson wrote: post #199
bobchadwick wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realize that the linked article is actually a daily newsletter, right? That's the explanation for the mixing of unrelated news stories.

Dated today but this story was debunked on X within a few hours of the event. NYT still pushing Hamas’ false narrative.

It’s true! The video of the misfiring rocket that’s now been published by all the big media outlets was doing the rounds on X within a few hours of the event.

A newsletter published today should not be “both sides”-ing the issue.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#222

Post by PawgerZ »

mattmaroon wrote: post #213
itsoktocry wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One, the people who think before speaking will start talking. Two, intelligence will start being released. I mean, I agree with you. But from 10,000ft, it's going to be mostly the same voices, going one way or the other. Conflicting views will remain prominent. The information war is crazy.

Right. I mean obviously both Israel and Hamas likely know if they accidentally blew up a hospital parking lot. One of them is lying and will still be doing so in a week. U.S. (and other third party nations) intelligence services may or may not have legitimate knowledge and may or may not be truthful about it and that’s unlikely to change in a week. What usually happens in these situations is a week later the stories…

> Right. I mean obviously both Israel and Hamas likely know if they accidentally blew up a hospital parking lot. One of them is lying and will still be doing so in a week.

But the prevailing view is that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad accidentally blew up a hospital -- not Hamas, not the IDF.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#223

Post by PawgerZ »

mattmaroon wrote: post #8

I’m still not sure what to believe on that story. It’s not like Israel to intentionally blow up a hospital full of civilians. It’s not unlike them to do it on accident. It’s not unlike Hamas to blow up anything (intentionally or otherwise) and Israel and the US would both probably say they did it whether they did or did not. The story would look the same no matter who did it.

> It’s not like Israel to intentionally blow up a hospital full of civilians

They bombed this same hospital on October 14th, three days before the more fatal bombing occurred.

According to the WHO, they have documented 48 attacks on healthcare facilities in Gaza since October 7. Take that with a grain of salt, but I don't see how it's "not like Israel" to bomb hospitals.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#224

Post by jakelazaroff »

mupuff1234 wrote: post #166
jakelazaroff wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The IDF released the recordings in the first place. Are you claiming that they're a reputable source?

No I don't. But instead of providing nameless fake experts to try and dispute the recording content they should just say it's impossible to verify so not acceptable as evidence in either direction. Although I wouldn't mind interviews with actual experts, but saying "independent journalists" with no names or anything definitely turns on red flags. But ignoring the recording I still find the evidence strong enough to a…

I came to the opposite conclusion. We can probably just agree to disagree on this.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#226

Post by SergeAx »

Context: Gaza is ruled by Hamas. Literally, legally speaking. So "Palestinian official" in this case is Hamas official. Hamas is designated as terrorist group by EU, UK, US, Canada, Australia and Japan. So, NYT was literally quoted a high-ranked member of a terrorist organization.

For me there's only one meaning of that: NYT chose a side in this conflict, and that side is of Hamas, terrorist organization. Why NYT doing this - I have not a slightest idea, but judging by their actions I have no other explanation.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#227

Post by seo-speedwagon »

jahewson wrote: post #220
jakeinspace wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought this was a decent video. One of the strongest counterarguments I’ve seen to the failed rocket being the cause of the fireball (rather than merely a coincidence), is the timing. 7 seconds between the rocket breaking up (still unclear if due to failure or interception, someone please correct me if I’m wrong) and impact with the hospital. 7 seconds would certainly not be enough to fall to earth from what appea…

The claim about airburst weapons seems like a massive reach. The tops of the palm trees are unscathed, the nearby buildings have more lower than upper windows blown-out. But if they didn’t make this claim they’d have ruled out all Israeli weapons so they just shoved it in there, despite being vanishingly unlikely. I’m pretty sure this is a self-serving tactic to obfuscate how obviously wrong they were initially and r…

I’ve yet to hear a good explanation for how a fragment of a PIJ rocket could cause vastly, like an order of magnitude+, more damage than any that has ever landed in Israel.

But what I have seen is: Israel bomb UNRWA schools; issue evacuation orders for a bunch of hospitals, including this one in question; provide a number of inconsistent explanations and equivocations in the hours and days since; bomb the southern half of Gaza after demanding everyone evacuate the north. So I’m going with the most obvious explanation that Israel bombed this hospital, and it’s allies in the West plus a bunch of stooges like “the OSINT community” are muddying the waters and desperately trying to do damage control.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#228

Post by ReflectedImage »

hersko wrote: post #105
meiraleal wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By the title, I knew that the article would be about creating a narrative to protect Israeli narrative in lying about their bombing of a hospital. Now how they could go so far to get back to it really got me impressed. Volcanos and lava.

It's wild that people are still pushing the IDF bombed a hospital narrative. You have to be willfully ignorant or just lying.

Israel saying that the hospital contained a Hamas base and their bombing of it was righteous and just didn't exactly help matters.

Since the IDF is known for hospital bombings everyone on all sides (including Israel) just assumed that they did it.

The fact that it wasn't the IDF is quite a surprise for all parties involved.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#229

Post by Izkata »

names_are_hard wrote: post #159
seo-speedwagon wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As soon as the story broke, it was clear to me that whoever did it, it was an accident. So in that sense, it doesn't really matter. It's an unfortunate casualty of war, in which innocent people suffer even when it's not intended. What’s this based on? Vibes? People are upset about this because it, in fact, does matter. Intentionally destroying a hospital is an atrocity; in the context of a war, it’s a war crime. Th…

Lofty even-handedness was not my intention, I have a definite side in this conflict because it personally affects me. I'm not unbiased and make no claim to be. I live in Israel and I'm scared of how this will end because I have skin in the game. It doesn't matter to me who hit the hospital because I don't believe it was intentional. That's not to say the deaths don't matter, they do, and we should mourn them. And tha…

> It doesn't matter to me who hit the hospital because I don't believe it was intentional.

Confounding factor: Hamas puts military bases in civilian areas so they can claim things like this even if the target was military.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#230

Post by seo-speedwagon »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #21
mattmaroon wrote: post #8

I’m still not sure what to believe on that story. It’s not like Israel to intentionally blow up a hospital full of civilians. It’s not unlike them to do it on accident. It’s not unlike Hamas to blow up anything (intentionally or otherwise) and Israel and the US would both probably say they did it whether they did or did not. The story would look the same no matter who did it.

> still not sure what to believe on that story Do this. A lesson from air crash investigations: wait a week. Until then, discount everything. > story would look the same no matter who did it This is not true. Too many countries with disparate motivations had eyes on the area. We haven’t had time for intelligence to be scrubbed for public release. Again, give it a week. In the meantime, observe the meta story; who con…

Turns out the US does not think an international investigation (i.e. not done by us or Israel) would be “appropriate” at this time.

https://x.com/dimitrilascaris/status/1715137246431449451?s=2...

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