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It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

natesilver.net

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Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Professional journalists have the responsibility to be epistemologically correct—to accurately say "X told us Y", "our reporter observed Z", etc. You can't jump the gun and launder speculation into truth. That's what Silver's complaining about in the OP: not that the NYT got it wrong, but how in particular they got it wrong, making claims of confidence and certainty that weren't supported by what they had.

It's a more subtle mistake than that - they did say "X told us Y": > Israeli Strike Kills Hundreds in Hospital, Palestinian Officials Say The problem isn't that they presented an unverified claim as fact - they told us that this was a claim by an official . The problem is one of framing and headline crafting. All people took away from the headline was the "fact", because the headline did not adequately stress the pro…

The headline is not the story. The headline is never the whole story. If the headline was the whole story you wouldn’t need the story.

People who claim ‘they write the headline to get you to click’ are onto something. You’re meant to click on the headline and read the story.

A heck of a lot of news reports take this form, and all it takes to read them accurately is basic media literacy:

CLAIM, PARTY SAYS

Claim was made today by party.

More detail about claim, and how newspaper came to be aware of claim.

But counterclaim, according to other party.

Opinion on trustworthiness of parties, according to expert, with credentials.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#182
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel did not pretend they hadn't fired the missile in that case. You may disagree with whether it was deliberate or not but you have no evidence that it was. Which fine, that's a mental framework you are choosing for yourself. Hamas, meanwhile, has been caught lying multiple times over the years with actual evidence of those lies. Objectively one of these is far more reliable than the others in their relationship t…

Tell me you didn't bother reading the substance of my comment without telling me.... JFC, you're in a mental prison. Hate.

I'm curious, if you have an actual example where I'm wrong or if you just want to win on opinion here. Because I'm fine having a different opinion than you but pretending like, in this example, the behavior of the two groups in the past and the facts does not indicate a statistically higher likelihood that a shoddy Hamas missile caused this and not Israel requires you ignore the history here. Your comment moved the goal posts and make a statement with no evidence in support. The actual facts in the article meanwhile continued to support my own point.

1. Hamas is proudly on the record that they want their people to die as human shields.

2. Hamas is proudly on the record that they seek the genocide against the jews.

3. Isreal does not typically lie and say it wasn't their missile when they fire them.

4. Isreal's munitions are very effective and Hamas is using homemade rockets made from water pipes and are much more consistent with the type of damage caused in the hospital parking lot.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#183
Writing with an American perspective:

The graph of decline in trust in the media over time is interesting. I'm not sure it's necessarily because the media is less trustworthy, although that's probably the case given increased partisanship about every subject nowadays. But like "yellow journalism" is a term from the 19th century; this isn't a new phenomenon. I think a better explanation for the decrease in trust in the media is an increase in information enabled by the internet. Sometimes this information is false and the media is reporting the truth, but people are more willing to believe what lines up with their narrative so seeing the media disagree with their belief decreases their trust in the media. Sometimes information from outside the media is true and the media is reporting falsehoods; this also damages people's trust in the media's credibility. This is a feedback loop then where instances of false reporting cause doubts on instances of thurthful reporting, and instances of truthful reporting that don't align with a group's biases are attacked as possibly false.

Back when there was only one real source of truth, the media, any alternative sources of information were so few in number that their combined efforts couldn't induce any doubt in the media's veracity. At that point the feedback loop couldn't get started, so it didn't matter if what the media reported turned out to be true or not. We romanticize that time period by assuming that journalists of the time were more trustworthy; that may or may not be true, but I have a hard time believing that human proclivities -like twisting the story to fit the journalist's biases or to hide stories that go against the narrative- have changed significantly for the worse since then. Journalists of the time probably did many of the same things as modern media is accused of doing, but without anyone else to point it out there was no decrease in trust.

The media has mostly responded by trying to insist that they're always trustworthy. This probably isn't the best move. It definitely increases partisanship as it moved people into one of two camps: believers of everything the media says or disbelievers of anything the media says. I don't know what a new agency that somehow emphasizes that it's not totally trustworthy or that its articles may be flawed looks like, but it'd probably get too much flak from both camps to survive currently. So I think that "fixing" the media involves a decrease in partisanship first.

(In my opinion the biggest thing we could do to decrease partisanship would be to revamp the political system to favor smaller parties that have to compromise and form a coalition to govern. The current US voting system, first past the post, mathematically favors two parties only (https://ncase.me/ballot/), so the first step would be to reform the voting system to something that allows third and fourth and fifth parties.)

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#184
How can we explain that WaPo used the term "detained" to describe Hamas kidnapping children? I thought a published article would go through reviews by editors and fellow reporters? I'm not sure how that can be explained as "screw up on breaking news".

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When journalists hear hoof beats, you want them to think ‘horses’ not ‘zebras’, though, right? When party A is causing a lot of explosions in general in land controlled by party B, and party B is broadly not trying to cause explosions in its own land, when an explosion happens in land controlled by party B you should have a strong prior that the most likely culprit is party A. Journalists should be allowed to assume…

Sometimes it's not horse and zebras, but horses and donkeys - both are reasonably plausible. This is generally the case in a war zone, where stuff goes wrong and friendly fire occurs all the time . If a journalist tells me that it's horses I'd hope they've done the leg work and checked that it's not donkeys first. The way that the NYT reported on this isn't technically incorrect or *obviously wrong ("Israeli Strike K…

When NYT put a source attribution in the headline, that is them saying that this information is unverified, but the fact that the claim was made by that party is newsworthy.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Former news junkie here. The GP is correct. Unless you are making concrete decisions based on those conflicts on a day to day basis, there is little to gain following it on a day by day basis. He says wait a week. I actually used to wait a month - at the beginning of the month I would catch up on all the news. Compared to when I would follow things on a daily basis, I got more accuracy, and less haze. When you go thr…

> When you go through your RSS feed all at once for a month, you'll see how crazy often things are inaccurate in the first few days You may also enjoy browsing old microfiches.

Not sure if that was sarcasm, but the thought does tickle me!

Thankfully, I've rid myself of the "must follow news" curse. But yeah, looking at decades old newspapers it's fun to see the stuff there.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure what will change in a few more days but I do already discount everything. I’m not sure what your second comment means exactly, can you elaborate?

> not sure what will change in a few more days One, the people who think before speaking will start talking. Two, intelligence will start being released.

I’m not sure I’ll trust the intelligence any more in a week than I do now. I think that if Israel accidentally blew up the hospital, they and the US will still say otherwise. I don’t imagine any other country in that region telling me the opposite would be very persuasive.

I suppose if there’s an admission against interest I’d be more inclined to believe it, such as if Jordan says Hamas did it. But I don’t imagine they’d do that.

If the runup to our invasion of Iraq taught me anything, it’s that intelligence can be incorrect or misrepresented to the public for quite some time.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#188

The reason everyone believed it was Israel is because they do it all the time. Today they bombed a church. I find it funny (as long as you ignore that these events involve dead people) that Silver here is up in arms for an alleged misattribution when it happens otherwise every day and nobody is bothered. A novel thought: maybe stop bombing civilians and the chance of you unjustly being accused of bombing civilians go…

Do you mean this Church you can clearly see still standing in the photo? https://nitter.net/Osinttechnical/status/1715361491006747073

So you believed a Church was bombed today when in fact it was a building next to it and Church is fine. What does that tell you about sources you use for news?

> maybe stop bombing civilians

There are missile barrages incoming from Gaza daily, civilians dont shoot rockets. Civilian buildings dont experience secondary explosions when collapsing.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#189

I don’t have a dog in the fight and have been a long time NYT subscriber but I concur with Nate on this one. The NYT coverage here has become even worse in the last few hours. It’s truly bizarre. Here is their latest: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/20/briefing/gaza-hospital.ht... The headline is: Gaza and the Trudeau Problem It begins with an inexplicable few paragraphs about Canada and India before taking a sharp l…

I try to limit my intake of news, and so most of the story I only hear from my Tangle subscription[0] which has had a pretty even take on it. I've been impressed with them, so far, but of course everyone has biases and you have to take everything with a grain of salt, etc, etc. Anyway, I agree that "Hamas said so" is one side, and it's weak. And on the other side you have the still-standing hospital. You also have Bi…

If you were some shadowy organisation conducting psy-ops and you were gonna go to the effort of constructing a credible fake video for something like that, would you not bother to get the friggin' timestamp right?

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#190
post #78

Comparing a fake image of some volcano and lava in the middle of the ocean (?!?) with the real deaths of people now dying in Gaza is peek Western journalism. It's why the West has ideologically lost its grip on the Global South, and deservedly so. Later edit: It might have helped if the author or the article had included his ethnicity at the start of the article, that way the stupid Gaza comparison and the futile att…

[flagged]

Don’t you think that pointing out that a person of Jewish ethnicity taking the side of the IDF in killing 1,000 Palestinian kids and counting would have helped with the discussion? And what’s the point of bringing in the subject of the German State killing Jewish children in Europe during WW2. If anything, that should stopped the current Israeli citizens from killing those Palestinian children. Apparently it didn’t.

Meaning, what’s that got to do with the Israeli Army killing Palestinian kids in Gaza right at this moment?

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