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It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

natesilver.net

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Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#71

Post by meiraleal »

Pxtl wrote: post #44
mattmaroon wrote: post #8

I’m still not sure what to believe on that story. It’s not like Israel to intentionally blow up a hospital full of civilians. It’s not unlike them to do it on accident. It’s not unlike Hamas to blow up anything (intentionally or otherwise) and Israel and the US would both probably say they did it whether they did or did not. The story would look the same no matter who did it.

The evidence from reputable OSINT orgs like Bellingcat is pretty-much showing evidence that this was an accident on the part of Palistinian fighters. There are multiple videos showing a volley of rockets were launched from within Gaza (not from Bellingcat, but other OSINT groups -- Bellingcat not ready to make a final conclusion here). One of the rockets appeared to fail while it was rising - it swerved wildly and th…

The most laughable moment of those big concerted lies is this, when the perpetrators call "the specialists" to prove they aren't guilty. "Check this calculation here, it matches the terrorists signature".

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#72

Post by cma »

mkmk wrote: post #9

A long time ago, I worked for a brand that bought expensive advertisements in the nytimes. The sales team invited me to be a silent attendee of the 'page one meeting', a meeting during which the editors decide which stories will be on the front page of the paper and how they will be presented. By that time, they were also discussing if certain stories warranted a push notification, and how tweets would be presented.…

> A long time ago, I worked for a brand that bought expensive advertisements in the nytimes. The sales team invited me to be a silent attendee of the 'page one meeting',

Is this normal? So when they were reporting on tobacco cancer and deciding if it went on the front page there would be like a silent Philip Morris employee in the room staring them down and sitting with the sales team? Or was there one-way glass or something?

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#73

Post by stronglikedan »

threeseed wrote: post #22

I just find this all so pointless. News organisations can't be expected to verify every claim. And so all they can do is report the claims of what should be trusted sources i.e. governments, NGOs etc. And to be fair every country spins the truth so it's not like this incident is without precedent. So you get to choose. Either you have breaking news or you don't. But you can't ask for breaking news and have them verif…

> Either you have breaking news or you don't.

I choose "don't". I give everything the 48 hour rule. I won't even talk about events with other people if the events are less than 48 hours old. As far as I'm concerned, it's all just speculation that muddies the waters.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#74

Post by hcks »

swader999 wrote: post #20
frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #15

I actually think Nate is wrong on this, especially on how he states the wrong-ness of the two parts of the story. It seems very likely to me that initial death counts were overstated. But the probability that it was an Israeli bomb that went off in the parking lot carries a lot more uncertainty and I think there's still a decent chance that it's true. There's still a lot of investigation to be done but, if when all i…

An Israeli munition would have left a crater.

This doesn’t make any sense.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#75

Post by bombcar »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #45
mattmaroon wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure what will change in a few more days but I do already discount everything. I’m not sure what your second comment means exactly, can you elaborate?

> not sure what will change in a few more days One, the people who think before speaking will start talking. Two, intelligence will start being released.

Anyone who claims to see through the fog of war without evidence and even sometimes with should be suspect; they have already determined what they want to see and found it.

The hardest part is that we are all that way, and we naturally love to see things that confirm our knowledge, biases, suspicions, etc; and hate to be challenged.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#76

Post by [deleted] »

mattmaroon wrote: post #8

I’m still not sure what to believe on that story. It’s not like Israel to intentionally blow up a hospital full of civilians. It’s not unlike them to do it on accident. It’s not unlike Hamas to blow up anything (intentionally or otherwise) and Israel and the US would both probably say they did it whether they did or did not. The story would look the same no matter who did it.

[deleted]

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#77

Post by mcphage »

cornercasechase wrote: post #69
mcphage wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Aside, the doctors at the hospital said Israel bombed them, they are not Hamas. How on earth would they know who bombed them?

Maybe it was the same people that bombed the rest of the city? The parent said Hamas made the claim, but it was doctors at the hospital.

Yep, maybe it was the same. And maybe it wasn't. I'm don't know how doctors at a hospital would be able to determine that. I'm pretty sure it's not one of the things they're taught in medical school.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#78

Post by paganel »

Comparing a fake image of some volcano and lava in the middle of the ocean (?!?) with the real deaths of people now dying in Gaza is peek Western journalism. It's why the West has ideologically lost its grip on the Global South, and deservedly so.

Later edit: It might have helped if the author or the article had included his ethnicity at the start of the article, that way the stupid Gaza comparison and the futile attempts to white-wash the IDF would have made more sense.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#79

Post by bombcar »

bendhoefs wrote: post #16

At this moment there is still a headline up on BBC: Hospital Blast in Gaza City Kills Hundreds - Health Officials. In addition to the problems Nate mentions with this wording a reasonable person could think that these "health officials" are a disinterested party, rather than what they are, an appendage of the Hamas run government.

Maybe it was always the case, but it feels like reporting what people say instead of what happened (independently verified) is way, way up.

Most people looking at that headline will take away that a hospital exploded, and the clear implications from it. Reading the article won't really dissuade you from that.

I don't even really thing it's entirely malicious (which is part of the problem), it's the absolute desire to get the "scoop" in a world where everything is broadcast live on Xitter.

Re: It's easy to screw up on breaking news but you have to admit when you do

#80

Post by vxNsr »

woodruffw wrote: post #17
readthenotes1 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I. e., "We are a gossip rag and not to be trusted for credible journalism." It is no better a disclaimer than the "Palestinian officials say" clause

What is your actual counterposition here? That news outfits shouldn’t publish anything until it’s incontrovertible? This is not a practical position to hold; the NPR’s qualification seems reasonable to me in light of the situation.

> What is your actual counterposition here?

That yelling fire in a theater is dangerous and that is quite literally what the NYT and NPR did.

The falsehoods they repeated caused immediate panic and rioting in many Muslim communities and countries, they’ve burned down synagogues and Israeli embassies over a false story.

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