Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings • Hacker News Board

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#151

Post by keepamovin » Fri, Oct 20, 2023, 12:12 PM UTC

shiroiuma wrote: post #146

chakalakasp wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno. The American Geophysical Union seemed to think it was a BFD in one of their conferences back in the 2000s. Had a whole presentation about how certain parts of the US grid would lose large transformers that would likely take months to years to replace as there are few spares and they have to be wound with miles and miles of copper by hand. Said that large swaths of the US would be without grid power for very…

It sounds like they need some type of automatic or robotic winding system... Even without some catastrophe, they surely have to make new transformers from time to time, and winding miles of copper by hand sounds ridiculously inefficient for a manufacturing process.

Hand winding allows for a high degree of precision and quality control that may be difficult to achieve with automated machinery, particularly for specialized or custom designs. Skilled technicians can closely monitor the process and make adjustments on the fly to ensure that the winding is as precise as possible. This is crucial for large transformers, where even minor imperfections can lead to inefficiencies, increased heat, or failure.

Transformers for electrical grids can vary greatly in their specifications depending on a variety of factors, such as location, usage, and existing grid architecture. Customization is often necessary, and hand winding allows for this level of customization to meet specific criteria, including the number of windings, the type of core used, and other design elements.

Copper wire is both flexible and delicate. It needs to be handled carefully to avoid nicks, kinks, or other imperfections that can compromise the transformer’s performance. Human technicians can adapt to the nuances of the material more effectively than machinery in some cases, ensuring that the wire is handled with care throughout the winding process.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#152

Post by medstrom » Fri, Oct 20, 2023, 1:23 PM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #136

medstrom wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The oldest living tree has seen 9,565 birthdays ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Tjikko ), but it doesn't have 9,565 rings. Even if it did, there's a gap of at least a few thousand years ;-) I'm impressed they got it exact, but wasn't by ring-counting (only).

Trees turn into fossils too sometimes.

You still have to figure out when it did. If there's a tree with 800 rings, but it died 100,000 years ago, then there's 100,000 years you have to date by some other method, and add 800 on top.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#153

Post by foobarian » Fri, Oct 20, 2023, 1:34 PM UTC

s1artibartfast wrote: post #144

foobarian wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This keeps coming up and I keep wondering how in the world are large transformers that complicated to build. And I don't mean that in a dismissive way but a "boy do I have a gap in my knowledge of the world" way :-)

I think that is a pretty common reaction when it comes to physical/mechanical objects. Another way of thinking about it which might be helpful is. Hundreds or thousands of very talented engineers have been working non-stop for 150+ years in a transformer arms race. This has resulted in incredibly high performance designs and incredibly high requirements.

No doubt. But same could be said of, say, automobiles, or microchips, and many other things. Even larger objects like power plant turbines seem relatively frequently manufactured. Large transformers on the other hand appear to be closer to nuclear power plants in rarity/difficulty of replacement, and as a result for me they have a very high difficulty-of-replacement-to-perceived-complexity ratio.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#154

Post by idiotsecant » Fri, Oct 20, 2023, 1:40 PM UTC

breezedream wrote: post #150

idiotsecant wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I won't comment on 1 and 2 but 3) is laughably untrue. I guess the word 'many' might be stretched to mean 'a few' but I've worked at more than one very large utility directly as an engineer responsible for design of large generation and transmission interface systems and these transformers are not only not spare, they're almost impossible to get quickly even at current market demand. If you toasted even 10 percent of…

Any thoughts on how the situation compares in Western Europe? Too many disparate systems, or…?

No idea, my experience is strictly NA. I wouldn't want to speculate

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#155

Post by idiotsecant » Fri, Oct 20, 2023, 1:50 PM UTC

foobarian wrote: post #153

s1artibartfast wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that is a pretty common reaction when it comes to physical/mechanical objects. Another way of thinking about it which might be helpful is. Hundreds or thousands of very talented engineers have been working non-stop for 150+ years in a transformer arms race. This has resulted in incredibly high performance designs and incredibly high requirements.

No doubt. But same could be said of, say, automobiles, or microchips, and many other things. Even larger objects like power plant turbines seem relatively frequently manufactured. Large transformers on the other hand appear to be closer to nuclear power plants in rarity/difficulty of replacement, and as a result for me they have a very high difficulty-of-replacement-to-perceived-complexity ratio.

Large transformers are built to a very specific custom specification. Each one is a custom engineered unit. A transformer is basically a sealed vessel full of volatile oil that you pass an extremely large voltage and current through. The machine has to be perfect. The smallest clearance issue, insulation problem, etc and you have a bomb. And that's just making it safe. We haven't even talked about making it effective.

Transformers are the sort of think that are not rocket science to build, but every single detail is very very important. It requires a team of people to design, construct, and validate and all these people need to have the skills from doing it many times before. These people and facilities simply don't exist in large enough numbers because they are very expensive.

There are also supply chain issues to consider - the steel used in transformer magnetic circuits for example is a very specific metallurgy and construction. During COVID it was quite difficult to find. Poor steel means poor efficiency which at the scale of these machines can mean millions of wasted mwh of power over time.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#156

Post by foobarian » Fri, Oct 20, 2023, 2:13 PM UTC

idiotsecant wrote: post #155

foobarian wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No doubt. But same could be said of, say, automobiles, or microchips, and many other things. Even larger objects like power plant turbines seem relatively frequently manufactured. Large transformers on the other hand appear to be closer to nuclear power plants in rarity/difficulty of replacement, and as a result for me they have a very high difficulty-of-replacement-to-perceived-complexity ratio.

Large transformers are built to a very specific custom specification. Each one is a custom engineered unit. A transformer is basically a sealed vessel full of volatile oil that you pass an extremely large voltage and current through. The machine has to be perfect . The smallest clearance issue, insulation problem, etc and you have a bomb. And that's just making it safe . We haven't even talked about making it effecti…

Thanks for the detail, this is very neat. I wonder if transformers like this are in an "uncanny valley" of manufacturing where there is barely not enough demand to bootstrap mass production like for example turbines. Turbines have very exact tolerances as well, but it seems that with higher unit counts orgs like GE managed to churn them out.

Perhaps the liquid piece is also making things more difficult; I'm sure a dry object is a lot easier to warehouse until needed.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#157

Post by ryanblakeley » Fri, Oct 20, 2023, 4:41 PM UTC

idiotsecant wrote: post #114

ryanblakeley wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I interviewed a guy from the NOAA to ask about that. The gist is 1) the military has hardened satellites 2) they have a phone-tree system for alerting grid operators and 3) many high voltage transformers have back-up systems in hardened storage. [1] https://ryanblakeley.net/p/solar-flare

I won't comment on 1 and 2 but 3) is laughably untrue. I guess the word 'many' might be stretched to mean 'a few' but I've worked at more than one very large utility directly as an engineer responsible for design of large generation and transmission interface systems and these transformers are not only not spare, they're almost impossible to get quickly even at current market demand. If you toasted even 10 percent of…

I appreciate your perspective. Perhaps I should have said "few" instead of "many" and "parts" instead of "systems". But it does sound like your overall impression of backup and restorative capacity differs from what I gathered in that interview.

He did say damaged HV transformers would be a big deal and repairs would take weeks, but maybe that was an optimistic take. Talking about solar storms and grid damage, the range of possibilities is very large, depending on the storm's intensity and where it hits.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#158

Post by s1artibartfast » Fri, Oct 20, 2023, 5:03 PM UTC

foobarian wrote: post #156

idiotsecant wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Large transformers are built to a very specific custom specification. Each one is a custom engineered unit. A transformer is basically a sealed vessel full of volatile oil that you pass an extremely large voltage and current through. The machine has to be perfect . The smallest clearance issue, insulation problem, etc and you have a bomb. And that's just making it safe . We haven't even talked about making it effecti…

Thanks for the detail, this is very neat. I wonder if transformers like this are in an "uncanny valley" of manufacturing where there is barely not enough demand to bootstrap mass production like for example turbines. Turbines have very exact tolerances as well, but it seems that with higher unit counts orgs like GE managed to churn them out. Perhaps the liquid piece is also making things more difficult; I'm sure a dr…

I thought turbines had lead times on the order of years

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#159

Post by foobarian » Fri, Oct 20, 2023, 5:34 PM UTC

foobarian wrote: post #156

idiotsecant wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Large transformers are built to a very specific custom specification. Each one is a custom engineered unit. A transformer is basically a sealed vessel full of volatile oil that you pass an extremely large voltage and current through. The machine has to be perfect . The smallest clearance issue, insulation problem, etc and you have a bomb. And that's just making it safe . We haven't even talked about making it effecti…

Thanks for the detail, this is very neat. I wonder if transformers like this are in an "uncanny valley" of manufacturing where there is barely not enough demand to bootstrap mass production like for example turbines. Turbines have very exact tolerances as well, but it seems that with higher unit counts orgs like GE managed to churn them out. Perhaps the liquid piece is also making things more difficult; I'm sure a dr…

12GW at 1100kVDC. [1] That's bonkers! I wonder what the spare part plan is for this beast.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pGH1B863oI&ab_channel=Engin...

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#160

Post by namibj » Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 7:47 AM UTC

foobarian wrote: post #156

idiotsecant wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Large transformers are built to a very specific custom specification. Each one is a custom engineered unit. A transformer is basically a sealed vessel full of volatile oil that you pass an extremely large voltage and current through. The machine has to be perfect . The smallest clearance issue, insulation problem, etc and you have a bomb. And that's just making it safe . We haven't even talked about making it effecti…

Thanks for the detail, this is very neat. I wonder if transformers like this are in an "uncanny valley" of manufacturing where there is barely not enough demand to bootstrap mass production like for example turbines. Turbines have very exact tolerances as well, but it seems that with higher unit counts orgs like GE managed to churn them out. Perhaps the liquid piece is also making things more difficult; I'm sure a dr…

They are dry until delivered, because they already max out the transport vehicle's capability (often highly specialized transformer carrier train cars with like 16 axles at each end to spread the weight).