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Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

phys.org

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Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#31

Post by mytailorisrich »

KMag wrote: post #30
mytailorisrich wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe that solar storms able to cause widespread havoc on our modern infrastructure are a much more frequent occurance. The Carrington event in 1859 caused serious damage to telegraphs, for instance. It's a risk that is more once a century than once a millenium... so we may very possibly see one this century. Considering how reliant we are on electricity, if everything goes down for more than a couple of days at…

I'm aware of the Carrington event, which is why I mentioned being prepared for 100-year or 1,000-year events. The GP was specifically asking if any governments had plans for "a similar storm today", where the referenced storm is this one found in tree rings, not the Carrington event.

Similar event has to be understood as meaning able to cause havoc because that's what matters over the specific strength.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#32

Post by KMag »

civilitty wrote: post #13
dakial1 wrote: post #2

>A similar solar storm today would be catastrophic for modern technological society—potentially wiping out telecommunications and satellite systems, causing massive electricity grid blackouts, and costing us billions of pounds. I wonder if any country has a disaster recovery plan for this kind on event.

FEMA's got you covered: https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/fema_incide... That's not the disaster recovery plan itself, it's FEMA instructing a bunch of agencies and departments to make their own. Ordered by Executive Order 13744 signed by President Obama in 2016.

I believe the FEMA plans are for Carrington event-level storms, not a once-in-15,000-years storm.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#33

Post by londons_explore »

keepamovin wrote: post #9
londons_explore wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. A large solar storm is unlikely to damage many transformers. Transformers have low impedance, yet solar storms have the biggest impact on high impedance systems (like copper telephone cables, especially when 'on hook'). The only time a power network is high impedance is when it isn't connected (ie. when part of the power network is switched off). Trivial operational changes could be made to ensure that of…

Even a Carrington-level event, which refers to a solar coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in 1859, is indeed a concern for modern electrical infrastructure. During such an event, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) could flow through electrical grids, potentially overheating transformers and causing them to fail. These GICs are particularly harmful to transformers because they can lead to half-cycle saturation,…

> geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) could flow through electrical grids, potentially overheating transformers and causing them to fail.

yes, but such currents are typically measured in milliamps or, during the biggest storms, amps. Most utility scale transformers would be needing DC currents of the order of thousands or tens of thousands of amperes before failure.

Even then, overheat sensors would detect such a condition, and operationally the circuit could be de-energised and connected to earth to protect it.

Also, where there are perhaps thousands of transformers connected to a particular distribution grid, the load from the GIC's is shared amongst them, further reducing impact.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#34

Post by bennettnate5 »

callalex wrote: post #8
dakial1 wrote: post #2

>A similar solar storm today would be catastrophic for modern technological society—potentially wiping out telecommunications and satellite systems, causing massive electricity grid blackouts, and costing us billions of pounds. I wonder if any country has a disaster recovery plan for this kind on event.

We could always fall back to running the internet with RFC1149 https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/rfc1149

You'll still get packet loss on any long distance communication, though:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/solar-storms-can-...

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#35

Post by ortusdux »

londons_explore wrote: post #4
ortusdux wrote: post #3

The US needs to fund the Strategic Transformer Reserve! DOE estimated the cost would be $500m in 2017, but it would be a bargain at 4x the price. https://www.energy.gov/ceser/articles/strategic-transformer-...

I disagree. A large solar storm is unlikely to damage many transformers. Transformers have low impedance, yet solar storms have the biggest impact on high impedance systems (like copper telephone cables, especially when 'on hook'). The only time a power network is high impedance is when it isn't connected (ie. when part of the power network is switched off). Trivial operational changes could be made to ensure that of…

IIRC, the main argument for spare transformers is that the lead time on them back in 2017 was 2+ years, and we have no domestic sources. I can't imagine the covid era supply chain issues have improved things. If North America is facing the sun during a major event, many countries would be fighting for replacements, and it could easily take a decade to get everything back online.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#36

Post by KMag »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #31
KMag wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm aware of the Carrington event, which is why I mentioned being prepared for 100-year or 1,000-year events. The GP was specifically asking if any governments had plans for "a similar storm today", where the referenced storm is this one found in tree rings, not the Carrington event.

Similar event has to be understood as meaning able to cause havoc because that's what matters over the specific strength.

> because that's what matters over the specific strength

... but the specific strength does come into play when discussing the costs of hardening and mitigation.

This event is twice as powerful as the previously known largest event.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#37

Post by MisterTea »

divan wrote: post #17
callalex wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We could always fall back to running the internet with RFC1149 https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/rfc1149

Some hope on Colapse OS [1] perhaps? [1] http://collapseos.org

The only hope is one can find the now obsolete computing parts needed after the last modern computer stops working. Collapse OS is a fantasy.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#38

Post by akomtu »

dakial1 wrote: post #2

>A similar solar storm today would be catastrophic for modern technological society—potentially wiping out telecommunications and satellite systems, causing massive electricity grid blackouts, and costing us billions of pounds. I wonder if any country has a disaster recovery plan for this kind on event.

Unless this precious tech is used against the people: surveillance, control, etc.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#39

Post by londons_explore »

izend wrote: post #16
londons_explore wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. A large solar storm is unlikely to damage many transformers. Transformers have low impedance, yet solar storms have the biggest impact on high impedance systems (like copper telephone cables, especially when 'on hook'). The only time a power network is high impedance is when it isn't connected (ie. when part of the power network is switched off). Trivial operational changes could be made to ensure that of…

The 1989 solar storm did cause damage to some Quebec transformers: https://hackaday.com/2017/04/10/lights-out-in-quebec-the-198...

> The ground connections of Hydro-Québec’s transmission system of high-tension lines and transformers eventually started conducting some of these earth currents, and at 2:43 AM, protective circuit breakers tripped at the Chibougamau substation in central Québec. This caused an imbalance on a 750 kV transmission line, which tripped breakers 150 km away.

> Within one minute, the cascading failures ...

So the actual problem was that all their power grid was turned off... ie. disconnected... ie. high impedance... ie. the most vulnerable state.

Operational changes could be made so that all 'tripped breakers' lead to at least one or other side of the breaker being grounded rather than left open circuit, which would solve the problem. That only needs to be the case during a solar storm, and electrical power lines are frequently grounded during maintenance for safety anyway.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#40

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

KMag wrote: post #24
sgu999 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hardening infrastructure against extremely rare disasters likely means less infrastructure, and probably fewer social programs. Or less dividends. This solar storm is a very extreme example, but we've all witnessed how greed got us very unprepared for a pandemic, climate changed induced weather events, new wars, etc.

But lower dividend yields mean lower yielding retirement funds, with quality of life effects downstream from that. Now, there's plenty to be said about the funding side of the equation to improve wealth inequality and/or increase budgets, but that's orthogonal to the spending-side necessary tradeoffs to harden against extremely rare disasters. In other words, supposing you had the political pull to get more money ent…

Why does it have to be either/or?

Planetary GDP is around $85tn annually.

The US military budget on its own is around $1tn.

One-off mitigation costs followed by annual maintenance would barely be a rounding error on that.

They'd have the added benefit of hardening systems against hostile EMP, which is a more likely threat.

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