Live data from Hacker News

Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

nytimes.com

171–180 of 253 posts

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#171

Another lesson we should learn from the pandemic, aside from the risks of GoF research, is that searching for novel viruses in animals can be extremely dangerous. WIV collected samples from bat populations to find novel coronaviruses. Processing those samples was not done in a BSL-4 facility, but instead in BSL-2 labs. Some of those samples, like RaTG13, were as close as 96% similar to SARS-CoV-2. Even if COVID didn'…

Don't they still collect wild bats for food in China?

If so, it seems a bit misguided to be taking issue with BSL-this-vs-that handling wild bats when BSL-fuck-all members of the public are still using them as a food source.

Pre-COVID it was already well understood that bats are viral reservoirs. It didn't prevent wet markets from selling wild bats. The labs are of focus due to GoF, in lieu of GoF there's already that level of exposure happening in the Chinese food supply.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#172
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We've still not proven that COVID was a lab-leak We also haven't proven it wasn't a lab leak. > so we're attempting to say that something that otherwise has a very safe record is dangerous based on what might have happened. I'm not sure how good the record really is[0]. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity...

> We also haven't proven it wasn't a lab leak. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof_(philosophy)#P... Your second point is better taken.

GP is totally right to point to you that it hasn't been proven it wasn't a lab leak either.

Your burden of proof would make some sense if, of all the places in the world, the outbreak didn't happen near a "leading" lab in GoF research on bat viruses.

I mean: if people were to die due to irradiation near some uranium-enrichment facility but there was no proof that any radioactive material leaked, the reasonable stance would still be that some fuck up happened in that uranium-enrichment facility.

People would have to proof it was a lab-leak if the outbreak happened in some city where there weren't any research done on viruses.

But as it is an undisputable fact that the biggest pandemic in modern history happened due to a virus outbreak beginning in a place exceptionally close to a lab doing research on similar viruses, the burden of proof is on those claiming it's not a lab leak.

Moreover it's a known fact communism uses propaganda as one of its most powerful tool so nothing coming out of chinese officials can be trusted.

You want to point out it wasn't proven it was a lab leak, which is true. But people can point out it wasn't proven it wasn't a lab leak either. And that is totally on-topic.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certain gain of function experiments, e.g. modifying an animal virus to be able to infect humans could create viruses that might behave very similar to SARS-CoV2 if leaked. We now know more about the potential consequences of such a leak, we have a full-blown pandemic as a benchmark. If those experiments have a chance to repeat a similar pandemic, I don't think any of them are worth that risk.

Unfortunately, that sort of GOF research is at the top of the list of GOF utility. Because animal virii making the jump to humans is the risk factor the international epidemiology community tries to protect against, for the very reasons you've highlighted: the harm when it occurs and the frequency with which it occurs (rare, but often enough to create a once-a-century firestorm, at least). Spanish Flu was likely an a…

> If COVID was human-made and not an animal-jump

These are not the only two options. An animal virus could be enhanced in a lab, then jump to humans, and then the “animal-jump” terminology is just a misdirection away from the lab work. “Human-made” as a term is a similar misdirection in this scenario, trying to make the human involvement claims sound overstated, again trying to point away from the lab.

I’m not saying you are doing misdirection, but I think some people framing it that way are.

I think it’s important to recognize the full nuance of what is likely in the middle, instead of just looking at highly unlikely and opposed extreme scenarios.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#174

Another lesson we should learn from the pandemic, aside from the risks of GoF research, is that searching for novel viruses in animals can be extremely dangerous. WIV collected samples from bat populations to find novel coronaviruses. Processing those samples was not done in a BSL-4 facility, but instead in BSL-2 labs. Some of those samples, like RaTG13, were as close as 96% similar to SARS-CoV-2. Even if COVID didn'…

>96% similar what does this mean

Less similar than a human and a chimp, who share 98.8% of their DNA (American Museum of Natural History).

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#175
post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> According to the virologists who do it, not anyone else. That's not true. > Virologists conspicuously had no role in fighting COVID and didn't seem to contribute any particular knowledge to the NPIs or vaccines. I can't imagine your basis for saying this. Virologists isolated the signature genetic sequences for COVID-19. That was the basis for the development of testing & vaccines for COVID-19 (...and if you think…

Sequencing is something done by many types of biologist, there's nothing special about virologists there. No, this is a profession that really should not exist at all. GoF was banned in the past without consequence beyond causing them to engage in coverups of their own psychotic experimentations, it can be banned again with no loss to humanity. COVID simply wouldn't have happened if these experiments were banned.

There is not sufficient evidence to support the hypothesis that COVID would not have happened if these experiments were banned.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NIMBYism isn't exactly a good measure of whether something should or shouldn't be done.

Please do not conflate people concerned about epidemics with narcissistic assholes.

Describing NIMBYism as "narcissistic assholes" is a gross oversimplification, and misses the point I'm getting at.

In the US, you'll reliably get a lot more NIMBY response from "set up a nuclear power plant in the neighbourhood" vs. "set up a gas power plant in the neighbourhood". However, if you look at the risk assessment, the gas power plant is far more lethal to the neighbourhood.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#177
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NIMBYism isn't exactly a good measure of whether something should or shouldn't be done.

NIMBYism != People being concerned about their neighbors possessing weapons of mass destruction/super viruses capable of killing them and millions/billions of other people.

No, but it does equal a people being concerned about the effects of making a change while completely ignoring the effects of NOT making a change.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, that sort of GOF research is at the top of the list of GOF utility. Because animal virii making the jump to humans is the risk factor the international epidemiology community tries to protect against, for the very reasons you've highlighted: the harm when it occurs and the frequency with which it occurs (rare, but often enough to create a once-a-century firestorm, at least). Spanish Flu was likely an a…

> HIV was a multi-virus infection followed by an animal jump Can you expand on the multi-virus infection thing?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3234451/

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#179
post #42
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There has been little or no new physical evidence. We have seen new evidence of coverup, though, where scientists privately said there was high likelihood of lab leak in slack messages before publicly signing publications claiming there was no likelihood of lab leak. The leaked slack messages are damning.

That’s a complete mischaracterization of that situation. The conversation DID ask if it was a leak. Then they studied the evidence and only after studying the evidence did they publicly sign that it was probably of natural origin.

That's not true at all.

They had already studied the evidence on February 2 when they had the slack conversations. No new evidence appeared.

Then they said out loud that they were changing the paper's conclusions away from their actual beliefs because of the political consequences:

> “Given the shit show that would happen if anyone serious accused the Chinese of even accidental release, my feeling is we should say that given there is no evidence of a specifically engineered virus, we cannot possible distinguish between natural evolution and escape so we are content to with ascribing it to natural processes.”

> “Yup, I totally agree that’s a very reasonable conclusion,” Andersen responded. Although I hate when politics is injected into science – but it’s impossible not to, especially given the circumstance. We should be sensitive to that.”

https://theintercept.com/2023/07/21/covid-origin-nih-lab-lea...

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I literally can't think of a more dangerous kind of research that we could be doing as a species than messing around and making viruses more dangerous. You have a very limited imagination. ;-) I assure you that extensive research into biological (not involving viruses), chemical, and nuclear weapons... and really a wide variety of weapons research is easily more dangerous. There's plenty of opportunity in other are…

> I assure you that extensive research into biological (not involving viruses), chemical, and nuclear weapons... and really a wide variety of weapons research is easily more dangerous. They very much are not. Viruses and bacteria are unique in the fact that they can harm the whole globe as opposed to chemical and other disasters that will likely only harm the immediate area. And harming the whole globe is all the mor…

> Viruses and bacteria are unique in the fact that they can harm the whole globe as opposed to chemical and other disasters that will likely only harm the immediate area.

First of all, you added in bacteria, which are not viruses.

However, this statement isn't a useful statement "X is unique because it can harm the whole world, as opposed to Y that will likely only harm the immediate area".

The implication is that X will almost always harm the whole world, and Y will almost always impact the immediate area, but that's not necessarily true.

(I would remind you the "1% chance we'll ignite the entire atmosphere" of the Manhattan Project. Fortunately, any future nuclear weapons we might develop will almost certainly be less powerful... oh wait.)

It also implies that the risk of X and the risk of Y doing harm are equivalent, and that's undoubtedly not true. It's ignoring the reality that nature is already doing X all the time, and primarily in high population centers.

> And harming the whole globe is all the more certain for infectious diseases if you put them in the middle of a large city with lots of air travel.

I would think it'd be all the more certain if you're regularly putting the researchers working in the lab, along with any biological samples they might have, on flights to and from such large cities.

Pandemic risk is a systemic problem and has to be evaluated as such. Controls/mitigations you have in place generally have way more impact than where the experiments are run, and it's really not as simple as "well if the lab is away from people that reduces the risk".

> Why would you need to transport things at high speed for speculative research involving newly generated viruses/bacteria?

Because this research is not isolated from reality. Much of what they do is take samples from the real world, observe virology in the real world (both human and non-human populations), and work with front line healthcare workers who are usually the first to see new viral threats. Without that you pretty much eliminate the value of the research entirely.

> I never said anything about analysing things involving people who are actively infected, but there the disease is already out in the public, so the risk profile is completely different.

The threat doesn't come directly from a virus that is already out in the public. It comes from how a virus that is already out there might evolve. You appear to believe that nature is conducting fewer and less significant experiments in evolving viruses than people in labs. I don't think that is supported by the evidence.

The pandemic risk profile with a virus that is already out in the public is that it might evolve into something that has never been out in public before. Nature is conducting these experiments every day, all day. I'd be more worried about the outcomes of those experiments than anything going on in a lab.

Post reply on HN