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Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

nytimes.com

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Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#31

Post by xracy »

jrm4 wrote: post #26
xracy wrote: post #16

I get that there are a lot of arm-chair experts who think this was a lab-leak. But we're making many large jumps here from: Was this created in a lab? Was this leaked from a lab? Is there something inherently dangerous about studying viruses in labs? Full NIMBY. The positive externalities of this are good jobs around virology study to try and prevent the next pandemic. But we're just leaning super hard into fear-mong…

Yeah, nah. You're conflating certainty with risk. Crazy virus comes from where said crazy viruses are literally made and studied. Occams Razor suggests a lot, but more importantly, smart risk management dictates that you treat the lab as if it is the source; absent some sort of clear risk-related reason that these experiments are likely to do more good than harm. So I suppose the correct question is -- what are we ge…

There's literally an alternative proposed leak method that is the current consensus (market) that is more believable than the lab-leak theory.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#32

Post by arcticbull »

xracy wrote: post #16

I get that there are a lot of arm-chair experts who think this was a lab-leak. But we're making many large jumps here from: Was this created in a lab? Was this leaked from a lab? Is there something inherently dangerous about studying viruses in labs? Full NIMBY. The positive externalities of this are good jobs around virology study to try and prevent the next pandemic. But we're just leaning super hard into fear-mong…

I'm not generally opposed to virology research - I do think that it's totally reasonable a lab leak could have lead to this.

Coronaviruses (SARS specifically) have leaked from Chinese labs twice in the last 20 years. These aren't really even controversial incidents, the PRC admitted it. [2]

Lab leaks of pathogens aren't really that uncommon, to the extent Wikipedia has a huge list including labs from all over the world. [1]

tl;dr: viruses escape from labs, so it was never a far-fetched scenario.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity...

[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7096887/

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#33

Post by toomim »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #14
purpleblue wrote: post #5

I'm glad that things are slowing down here. Virology research is one of those things no one ever thought about, but the fact that a single careless lab was able to release a virus that killed tens of millions around the world should be a wake up call that the researchers were outpacing the regulations. The entire industry around the world has to be heavily regulated at this point to prevent this from happening again.

Except of course that isn't what happened. All evidence points to zoonotic spillover, aggravated by our encroachment on previously undisturbed natural areas and global warming. Sadly, it was both political useful ('the Chinese did it!'), and ideologically useful ('a few faulty humans did this, like in the movies'), to blame the lab in Wuhan. By doing so, we can absolve ourselves of blame, and of need to take action -…

It's not absolving anyone from blame. The lab leak theory blames all parties-- it points out that the US NIH funded the research being done in Wuhan, which is public record.

That's leaving aside the specious claim that there's no evidence of lab leak. The evidence of first outbreaks being near the lab are evidence of it being a lab leak, just as the first outbreaks going through a wet market are evidence of natural evolution. We have evidence for both theories.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#34

Post by mdgrech23 »

Ajay-p wrote: post #25

Perhaps I am one of a small group but it still irritates me how politicized the origins of COVID were. It should never have been that way and it should never happen again. Lab leak, deliberate act, accident, or a mutation in the wild, the origins should have been rigorously challenged and pursued no matter the consequence.

[flagged]

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#35

Post by coupdejarnac »

xracy wrote: post #16

I get that there are a lot of arm-chair experts who think this was a lab-leak. But we're making many large jumps here from: Was this created in a lab? Was this leaked from a lab? Is there something inherently dangerous about studying viruses in labs? Full NIMBY. The positive externalities of this are good jobs around virology study to try and prevent the next pandemic. But we're just leaning super hard into fear-mong…

Chinese social media was spreading rumours about the virus being created and spread by the US army even before wuhan was locked down.

Your opinion has been shaped by a massive disinformation campaign.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#36

Post by xracy »

anon291 wrote: post #23
xracy wrote: post #16

I get that there are a lot of arm-chair experts who think this was a lab-leak. But we're making many large jumps here from: Was this created in a lab? Was this leaked from a lab? Is there something inherently dangerous about studying viruses in labs? Full NIMBY. The positive externalities of this are good jobs around virology study to try and prevent the next pandemic. But we're just leaning super hard into fear-mong…

Your argument here boils down to 'we shouldn't care if it's created in a lab, because even if it were, the benefits of studying viruses outweigh the risk'. It's funny that you accuse others of being 'armchair experts', when you yourself are being an armchair expert on the topic of the risk/benefit analysis of gain-of-function research. Moreover, your idea is even more dangerous because it necessitates that there will…

You're misrepresenting my argument at the top.

My argument here is "We don't know that this was created in a lab, and it's unreasonable to assume it was when we have evidence that it wasn't created in a lab." It's even more unreasonable to create policy based on this wild speculation.

> How is anyone supposed to prove or even provide evidence of such a thing if China doesn't cooperate? And that's really the reason this has exploded. China is not cooperating. No one knows, and that's suspicious.

Difficulty in obtaining evidence doesn't change the burden of proof from "proving a positive" to "disproving a negative".

"Suspicious" is not "damning evidence." But also my understanding is that scientists have studied the virus and determined it doesn't have any of the hallmarks they would expect from a human-altered virus.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#37

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Ajay-p wrote: post #25

Perhaps I am one of a small group but it still irritates me how politicized the origins of COVID were. It should never have been that way and it should never happen again. Lab leak, deliberate act, accident, or a mutation in the wild, the origins should have been rigorously challenged and pursued no matter the consequence.

This entire topic has gotten harebrained, so I’ll add to the fire: the part of our population that had a problem getting vaccinated would have responded much better to a perceived threat from a tangible adversary.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#38

Post by toomim »

tmaly wrote: post #19
xracy wrote: post #16

I get that there are a lot of arm-chair experts who think this was a lab-leak. But we're making many large jumps here from: Was this created in a lab? Was this leaked from a lab? Is there something inherently dangerous about studying viruses in labs? Full NIMBY. The positive externalities of this are good jobs around virology study to try and prevent the next pandemic. But we're just leaning super hard into fear-mong…

I have not kept up with this topic. What does the evidence point to? Has any new evidence surfaced in the past year?

There has been little or no new physical evidence. We have seen new evidence of coverup, though, where scientists privately said there was high likelihood of lab leak in slack messages before publicly signing publications claiming there was no likelihood of lab leak. The leaked slack messages are damning.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#39

Post by xracy »

WatchDog wrote: post #29
xracy wrote: post #16

I get that there are a lot of arm-chair experts who think this was a lab-leak. But we're making many large jumps here from: Was this created in a lab? Was this leaked from a lab? Is there something inherently dangerous about studying viruses in labs? Full NIMBY. The positive externalities of this are good jobs around virology study to try and prevent the next pandemic. But we're just leaning super hard into fear-mong…

> We've still not proven that COVID was a lab-leak We also haven't proven it wasn't a lab leak. > so we're attempting to say that something that otherwise has a very safe record is dangerous based on what might have happened. I'm not sure how good the record really is[0]. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_laboratory_biosecurity...

> We also haven't proven it wasn't a lab leak.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof_(philosophy)#P...

Your second point is better taken.

Re: Lab leak fight casts chill over virology research

#40

Post by wredue »

galangalalgol wrote: post #27
pmarreck wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the fact that a single careless lab was able to release a virus that killed tens of millions around the world Wait, is this canon now? If so, how is China going to not garner the hatred of the entire world?

I haven't read much in the last year that didn't consider it extremely likely. The lab was receiving funding from other nations including the US, so I don't think hatred specifically and only for China is rational, but being rational is so cliche. What is 100% accepted and documented is that the lab in question had a history of repeated leaks and failures to follow protocol. When a Chinese nuke plant doesn't follow p…

Sorry, where is this documented that this lab is known for leaks?

To my knowledge, as of 3 months ago, the only “tangible” evidence for a lab leak was that china cleaned up before the WHO arrived and could better investigate.

You are the first person I have ever seen, after hundreds of articles, claim that the lab is known for leaks.

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