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If the Economy Is So Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking?

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Re: If the Economy Is So Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking?

#41
post #8

This article strongly covers a major SYMPTOM of the problem. https://www.buzzfeed.com/suzystrutner/how-much-you-need-for-... Housing / land valuation is wildly off from the needs of the people. For more than literally my entire life there has been a chronic shortage of housing, with less built than is necessary for multiple decades of time. The issue has compounded. We are at the point where the solution is to litera…

I came to the same conclusion from another place: the nth time seeing news about some block finding it cheaper to live in a cruise ship than in a retirement home anywhere in the US. This is only possible if all land value is inherently overinflated beyond measure that a floating coal burning ship all expenses paid is cheaper than a retirement home that should have 5x less overhead.

This is because the American home buyer isn't competing with other American home buyers anymore.

They're competing with VCs trying to build developments and companies trying to turn a profit. Gone are the days of the "Fixer Upper" that Tim Taylor would buy, drop a reasonable amount in repairs, preform the repairs themselves, and then turn a modest profit.

Everyone who buys a house today wants the value to go up. Nobody who can afford a house needs one. They are not commodities that you utilize and repair. They are now investments, vehicles to grow your money.

That's great for all the snobbish out of touch retirees. But the middle class needs somewhere to hang their hat so they can rest up and make it to work tomorrow.

Re: If the Economy Is So Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking?

#42

The market is: - Down 1.x% the last month - Up 2.x% YTD - About equal over 6months - Up 13% over last year That's "tanking"? The article talks about 52-week lows. The market is up nearly 13% over that 52 week period. How is this even newsworthy? Yes, the market goes up and down. The next time the market goes up 1.X% will they post an article about how much the market is "surging" and how strong the market is?

The article is talking about consumer stocks, not the overall market.

Re: If the Economy Is So Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking?

#43
The article doesn't mention it, but part of the answer is equity risk premium: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/eq...

If I can get ~5% risk free return from treasuries, I need to believe I can get MORE than 5% return on equity to pay for the risk. So prices have to fall.

I'm surprised prices haven't fallen more given we've gone from 0% risk free return in a short period.

Re: If the Economy Is So Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking?

#44
post #8

This article strongly covers a major SYMPTOM of the problem. https://www.buzzfeed.com/suzystrutner/how-much-you-need-for-... Housing / land valuation is wildly off from the needs of the people. For more than literally my entire life there has been a chronic shortage of housing, with less built than is necessary for multiple decades of time. The issue has compounded. We are at the point where the solution is to litera…

I came to the same conclusion from another place: the nth time seeing news about some block finding it cheaper to live in a cruise ship than in a retirement home anywhere in the US. This is only possible if all land value is inherently overinflated beyond measure that a floating coal burning ship all expenses paid is cheaper than a retirement home that should have 5x less overhead.

> This is only possible if all land value is inherently overinflated beyond measure that a floating coal burning ship all expenses paid is cheaper than a retirement home that should have 5x less overhead.

This isn't all land. It's just desirable land - in cities basically. The urban to rural migration has been going on for many decades now and doesn't seem to show any signs of slowing down.

Re: If the Economy Is So Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking?

#45

The market is: - Down 1.x% the last month - Up 2.x% YTD - About equal over 6months - Up 13% over last year That's "tanking"? The article talks about 52-week lows. The market is up nearly 13% over that 52 week period. How is this even newsworthy? Yes, the market goes up and down. The next time the market goes up 1.X% will they post an article about how much the market is "surging" and how strong the market is?

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Re: If the Economy Is So Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking?

#46
post #33
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Housing / land valuation is wildly off from the needs of the people. For more than literally my entire life there has been a chronic shortage of housing If there is a housing shortage then the unaffordability is reflective of proper valuation. If people need more housing than they are getting, a free market would indicate valuations to go higher. I would suspect that you’d like to see housing revalued lower, though

> a free market Housing supply is not a free market. At least in the US, there's a committee reviewing each parcel deciding how many sqft of interior space, how many kitchens, how tall, and what uses.

Exactly. Multifamily housing is banned in most parts of the US (by area).

Re: If the Economy Is So Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking?

#47

The market is: - Down 1.x% the last month - Up 2.x% YTD - About equal over 6months - Up 13% over last year That's "tanking"? The article talks about 52-week lows. The market is up nearly 13% over that 52 week period. How is this even newsworthy? Yes, the market goes up and down. The next time the market goes up 1.X% will they post an article about how much the market is "surging" and how strong the market is?

The article is talking about consumer stocks, not the overall market.

i don't get it. are our attention spans so shot we cannot even read the entire headline, let alone the article?

Re: If the Economy Is So Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking?

#48
post #25
post #8

This article strongly covers a major SYMPTOM of the problem. https://www.buzzfeed.com/suzystrutner/how-much-you-need-for-... Housing / land valuation is wildly off from the needs of the people. For more than literally my entire life there has been a chronic shortage of housing, with less built than is necessary for multiple decades of time. The issue has compounded. We are at the point where the solution is to litera…

>Housing / land valuation is wildly off from the needs of the people. For more than literally my entire life there has been a chronic shortage of housing If there is a housing shortage then the unaffordability is reflective of proper valuation. If people need more housing than they are getting, a free market would indicate valuations to go higher. I would suspect that you’d like to see housing revalued lower, though

1 - market is not free, 2 - some regions have zones, prohibiting building medium to high density buildings, 3 - building materials got more expensive, 4- labor too

Re: If the Economy Is So Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking?

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone have an actual breakdown of how much the younger generations are placing away in a 401k - if that's even possible?

401ks are like ~10% of the stock market: https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/10/25/who-owns-the-st... Boomer 401ks are probably The idea that boomer 401k withdrawals is going to crash the stock market or tamp out future growth is pretty strange. Defined benefit & defined contribution pension plans are both larger chunks of the stock market than 401ks. And all of those together are a smaller chunk than foreigner ho…

"The market is like a large movie theater with a small door. And the best way to detect a sucker is to see if his focus is on the size of the theater rather than that of the door." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game

(This is not to say that you, specifically, are a "sucker", and I don't love the term. But I think Taleb has a lot to offer on considering risk.)

Re: If the Economy Is So Strong, Why Are Consumer Stocks Tanking?

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fun fact, dividend adjusted, over the last 5 years only Google has outperformed something like say, McDonald's.

Something about that doesn't seem right. What about Apple or literally any of the other mega corps that have passed or closed to approach the 1T market cap?

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