Muscle burns more energy than fat. As people age, their muscle mass declines without sufficient exercise, so we'd naturally expect the average person's metabolism to decline via this even if "metabolism per kg muscle" didn't change.
So we could easily expect the average person's metabolism to increase as well, simply to support the extra body mass regardless of composition.
Balancing out the two effects can only really be determined through careful statistics, and is going to be extremely variable per-person.