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Why the singularity may never arrive

maximise.dk

41–50 of 51 posts

Re: Why the singularity may never arrive

#41
The people actually working on general-purpose AI, exactly what the heck are they doing?

It seems to me we:

* Don't have a clear idea what consciousness is * Have very pathetic attempts at creating it so far.

But machine learning has achieved some seriously impressive stuff. Although I wouldn't call that intelligent. I'm into machine learning because it works and it is of great help to humanity.

If someone told me to design a general-purpose AI, I wouldn't really know what to do.

So what are these singularitans doing? Only philosophy or something real?

They strike me more as the alchemists of our time rather than serious scientists.

Re: Why the singularity may never arrive

#42
post #11
post #4

Interesting suggestion that resources for computing will eventually run out in some fashion, thereby invalidating the Singularity prediction. But what resources? I wonder where energy costs fit into this. Already, Internet companies are seeing energy as a significant part of the costs for running their business. How much energy would be consumed by a $1000 computer with the same computing capacity as the entire human…

Perhaps this cost will be the overhead of managing the increasing amount of information, with its storage, indexing, and relationships.

Perhaps you should be able to make the overhead logarithmic with clever coding.

Re: Why the singularity may never arrive

#43
The question of the singularity isn't whether it will happen, it's if it will happen as the big overhaul of civilization people predict. I mean the best example I can think of for the 'singularity phenomena' comes from Charles Stross' book Singularity Sky in which a super-advanced race comes along and basically asks everyone in an entire civilization "what do you dream of and we'll do it for you?" Revolutionaries ask for self-replicating weapons and use them, the governments policy is to pretend the super-advanced race isn't there and lets the planet get destroyed.

Essentially the above is as predicted. However, what is likely to happen is that fundamentally no human being will notice a difference between now and post-singularity. It's like video games, people criticize the graphics today for being too fake or not realistic enough when if you look back even a couple of years the improvement is immense. If you look back to the NES the improvement is fucking unbelievable, just like looking back from post-singularity it will be fucking unbelievable but when you're in it you're still going to complain that computers aren't fast enough, that something in a video game doesn't seem realistic enough, etc.

We might have humanoid robots in 20 years time, but it isn't going to be holy crap they magically appear. It'll be like in the movie iRobot, each new model is better than the last just like with PC's, but it still took them like 40 years from the founding of the company before the supercomputer that ran them decided to take over things.

Re: Why the singularity may never arrive

#44
post #24
post #14

Kurzweil deals with this "S-curve" phenomenon extensively in his books. He shows that each individual computing technology follows an S curve, but the exponential price-performance of computation continues through a smooth transition to the next method. For example, as vacuum tube computing saturated, transistor computing picked up. This is not a coincidence; as one technology reaches saturation, resources flow to th…

Actually Intel did not really "find a way around the problem". CPU speeds have barely improved since then, instead it's all about multi-core. If passively parallel was all it took, we could have AI today, but we can't. And it doesn't look like CPU's are going to get any faster. The curve did exactly what the linked article said: it turned into an S curve. Moore's law still works because that's a measure of cost, but…

I don't want to jump to conclusions, but the way you throw around the term "CPU speeds," (how do you even measure that?) you sound to me like a programmer for whom computation is a magical process composed of functions, arguments, processes and files.

Moore's Law is only indirectly related to CPU speed. Instead, it predicts the MOST ECONOMICALLY PROFITABLE minimum feature size of a semiconductor manufacturing process.

To a lot of people, those two things are one and the same, but in reality, computing power tends to grow because of innovations in processor architecture. In other words, material and device engineers will wring lots of improvements out of a given process, giving the architecture guys more transistors to implement bigger caches, longer pipelines, branch prediction, and the like.

So while "Moore's Law" continues apace, "CPU speeds" (however you measure those) have stalled a bit. This is because the current slate of architectural improvements has been exhausted, and there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding how to implement the Next Big Thing (core-level parallelism). This shouldn't be terribly worrisome to us, as it's happened before.

From the 1970s to the early 1990s, CPU manufacturers focused on "bit-level" parallelism, basically throwing in bigger registers and more instructions to burn through growing hardware budgets. When it became obvious that this approach wasn't improving performance any more, we got tghe RISC processors that enabled pipelining, upclocking, and caching.

If you didn't already know all of this -- and a lot more background besides -- your opinions about "programming an AI" are worse than useless. You're contributing zero information, and adding a little more noise (in the form of unsubstantiated certainty) to a field that's already debated too hotly.

Re: Why the singularity may never arrive

#45
post #17

I don't think the hole for the singularity argument is necessarily that technological progress, measured by CPU speed or accessible memory or bandwidth or whatever, will necessarily slow. I think that the hole is probably "We have virtually inexhaustible amounts of X and THIS MEANS MAGIC HAPPENS." There are many resources for humans which were, in certain times and places, very, very finite. Let me give you a trivial…

This defines the phrase "a good argument until you think about it."

I mean, you really can't think up a good use for enough computing power to compute a Mersenne prime every few seconds?

Let me give it a shot:

Discretize a space about the size of a big protein plus a ribosome plus a few hundred nucleotides. Run the time-dependent Schrödinger Equation. It might be necessary to approximate, say with ion cores and valence electrons. The fact that, on some level, biochemistry "works" suggests that the problem is tractable. Enumerate space of final states, pruning the boring or repetitious cases as needed. Congratulations, you've just solved Protein Folding. Have fun scanning your new Database of All Possible Proteins for drug applications, or as the prerequisite for simulating a full-sized human body down to the protein level.

And let's not even start talking about building abstract neural networks the size of human brains...

I do agree that a lot of talk about the singuarity is irrational hype -- rapture for the geeks, and all that -- but unless I've missed your point somewhere, this strikes me as only slightly less irrational hype-aversion.

Re: Why the singularity may never arrive

#46
post #24
post #14

Kurzweil deals with this "S-curve" phenomenon extensively in his books. He shows that each individual computing technology follows an S curve, but the exponential price-performance of computation continues through a smooth transition to the next method. For example, as vacuum tube computing saturated, transistor computing picked up. This is not a coincidence; as one technology reaches saturation, resources flow to th…

Actually Intel did not really "find a way around the problem". CPU speeds have barely improved since then, instead it's all about multi-core. If passively parallel was all it took, we could have AI today, but we can't. And it doesn't look like CPU's are going to get any faster. The curve did exactly what the linked article said: it turned into an S curve. Moore's law still works because that's a measure of cost, but…

I wish I could find where, but I remember Don Knuth saying that he didn't think that the multicore was really the only answer, only that its almost lazyness or hubris that has stopped innovation in other areas (he used nicer wording then that). Perhaps as a result of there being really no competition in architectures anymore?

Or maybe I dreamed it all up, and multicore it is !

Re: Why the singularity may never arrive

#47
post #24
post #14

Kurzweil deals with this "S-curve" phenomenon extensively in his books. He shows that each individual computing technology follows an S curve, but the exponential price-performance of computation continues through a smooth transition to the next method. For example, as vacuum tube computing saturated, transistor computing picked up. This is not a coincidence; as one technology reaches saturation, resources flow to th…

Actually Intel did not really "find a way around the problem". CPU speeds have barely improved since then, instead it's all about multi-core. If passively parallel was all it took, we could have AI today, but we can't. And it doesn't look like CPU's are going to get any faster. The curve did exactly what the linked article said: it turned into an S curve. Moore's law still works because that's a measure of cost, but…

Use of the term "the singularity", particularly your use here sets my teeth on edge. It's not about technology, it is about our models.

The North Pole is a singularity - coordinates converge there to become a single point (singular). They only do this because we chose a coordinate system that makes this happen. It is silly to talk about how you coils go there and then not be able to go any further north, as if that means it is the edge of the world.

Likewise "the singularity" is not a magical threshold of AI and immortality or transhumanism, it's where a given model of the future predicts nonsense because you have pushed it too far. Pick a different predictive model, get different results.

To claim, then, that the singularity may never happen is to claim either that change with feedback will stop, or a perfect model.

Better to claim that AI or genetically enhanced people, or neural prostheses, or smart matter, or superconductivity, or antigerones, or quantum computing, or virtual reality or whatever game changing technology won't happen - if that's what you mean.

(I for one think good PDA keyboards will never happen. :( hurry up Gunilla Alsio and senseboard, and that new t9 thing)

Re: Why the singularity may never arrive

#48

This is not exactly on-topic, but here's a question that I still haven't gotten a good answer to: People who are excited about a potential singularity: why? Doesn't the idea of being obsolete scare you?

Just upgrade. If the singularity gets here, cybernetic grafts should be easy to figure out.

Re: Why the singularity may never arrive

#49

A $1000 computer with the equivalent knowledge of the whole human race won't happen because it is physically impossible. There are 10^11 neurons or so in the brain. There are 10^10 (say) people in the world (more like 0.5 X 10^10 but anyway). So loosely there is an order of 10^20 neurons in humans on earth total. Avogadro's number has approx. 6 * 10^23 atoms in 12 grams of carbon, so, basically, you'd have to have 1…

Why would the 10^10 neuron simulation take up more space than an actual human brain? We would at least get to that level of technological advancement; we do, after all, exist, so the technology can't be that far-fetched ;)

Re: Why the singularity may never arrive

#50
post #41

The people actually working on general-purpose AI, exactly what the heck are they doing? It seems to me we: * Don't have a clear idea what consciousness is * Have very pathetic attempts at creating it so far. But machine learning has achieved some seriously impressive stuff. Although I wouldn't call that intelligent. I'm into machine learning because it works and it is of great help to humanity. If someone told me to…

Note that Isaac Newton was seriously into alchemy, and that chemistry evolved out of alchemy...
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