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OpenAI is too cheap to beat

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Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#191

Post by msikora »

adam_arthur wrote: post #179
appplication wrote: post #106

The premise of this is flawed. OpenAI is cheap because of has to be right now. They need to establish market dominance quickly, before competitors slide in. The winner of this horse race is not going to be the company with the best performing AI, it’s going to be the one who does the best job at creating an outstanding UX, ubiquitously presence, entrenching users, and building competitive moats that are not feature d…

The winner is going to be the consumers of AI. It's a race to the bottom on pricing on the provider/infra side. It seems very unlikely that any single LLM provider will achieve a sustained and durable advantage enough to achieve large margins on their product. Consumers can swap between providers with relative ease, and there is very little stickiness to these LLM APIs, since the interfaces are general and operate on…

Yep. I wonder why there is not more features that would differentiate your LLM API, like for example the Functions in OpenAI LLM APIs. While not perfect it is extremely useful and not aware of a similar offering (I do know that there are Python packages offering similar functionality but it is my understanding that they don't work as well as the OpenAI Functions).

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#192

Post by londons_explore »

filterfiber wrote: post #169
blackoil wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>OCR is seamless Wasn't that solved about a decade ago. Does anyone suck at that?

> Does anyone suck at that? Does android even have native OCR? Last I checked everything required an OCR app of varying quality (including windows/linux). On ios/macos you can literally just click on a picture and select the text in it as if it wasn't a picture. I know for sure on iOS you don't even open an app to do it, just any picture you can select it. Last I checked the Opensource OCR tools were decent but behin…

Android has had built in OCR for a few releases. You can copy and paste text from any image/app you can display on the screen.

To use, go to the app switcher and just start selecting text.

It's funny trying to select text in a video while the video is playing...

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#193

Post by diogenes4 »

appplication wrote: post #106

The premise of this is flawed. OpenAI is cheap because of has to be right now. They need to establish market dominance quickly, before competitors slide in. The winner of this horse race is not going to be the company with the best performing AI, it’s going to be the one who does the best job at creating an outstanding UX, ubiquitously presence, entrenching users, and building competitive moats that are not feature d…

> They need to establish market dominance quickly

It's not clear there's any more of a long-term market for this any more than there is for compilers. I'm kind of scratching my head trying to figure out where this assumption there is one comes from.

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#194

Post by wkat4242 »

pests wrote: post #181
jdminhbg wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of places where you can reliably walk out onto the street and hail a taxi is pretty small. Everywhere else, the relevant decision is whether calling a dispatcher or using a taxi company's app is faster/cheaper/more reliable than Uber/Lyft.

Living in the Detroit Metro area seeing that interaction in movies always blew my mind. Just walk outside and get a taxi? Crazy talk.

Here in Barcelona it works like that. 2-3 free taxis pass my place per minute or so. Just wave and you've got one. They're also very cheap.

But yeah the movie thing is not at all unrealistic here. Though at night I usually wave the torch on my phone to attract attention because they don't always see a raised hand.

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#195

Post by CamperBob2 »

layer8 wrote: post #92
CamperBob2 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just yesterday, while driving: "Read last message." Siri: "Sorry. Dictation service is unavailable at the moment." It's past time for excuses. High-level people at Apple need to be fired over this. Hello? Tim? Do your job. Hello? Anybody home...?

Apple is ramping up spending in that area: https://www.macrumors.com/2023/09/06/apple-conversational-ai... It’ll probably take a while though.

Yeah, at this rate they'll be at parity with Infocom by 2030.

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#196

Post by vlod »

Havoc wrote: post #45

Yep. Building a project that needs some LLMs. I'm very much of the self-hosting mindset so will try DIY, but it's very obviously the wrong choice by any reasonable metric. OpenAI will murder my solution by quality, by availability, by reliability and by scalability...all for the price of a coffee. It's a personal project though & partly intended for learning purposes so there is scope for accepting trainwreck level t…

Isn't it very expensive to do this? Don't you need a jacked up PC with multiple expensive NVidia cards?

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#197

Post by wkat4242 »

jdminhbg wrote: post #170
wkat4242 wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I kinda wonder why people even use them anymore. I've long gone back to real taxis because their cheaper and I don't have to book them, I can just grab one on the street. Much more efficient than waiting for slowly watching my driver edge his way to me from 3 kilometers away.

The number of places where you can reliably walk out onto the street and hail a taxi is pretty small. Everywhere else, the relevant decision is whether calling a dispatcher or using a taxi company's app is faster/cheaper/more reliable than Uber/Lyft.

Here in Barcelona it's great, I really never have to call one. It's always faster just waiting.

At the busiest time it's a bit harder but at that time the ride-sharing services are also overloaded so it's still faster to just wait for a green light (free taxi). We don't get Uber as far as I know but we do have a similar thing called Cabify. But it's useless if you need something quick and they've put the prices up too much. I now only use them for scheduled stuff like airport dropoffs.

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#198

Post by AussieWog93 »

appplication wrote: post #106

The premise of this is flawed. OpenAI is cheap because of has to be right now. They need to establish market dominance quickly, before competitors slide in. The winner of this horse race is not going to be the company with the best performing AI, it’s going to be the one who does the best job at creating an outstanding UX, ubiquitously presence, entrenching users, and building competitive moats that are not feature d…

>hungry-hungry-hippos market grab

That is a beautiful metaphor, seriously.

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#199

Post by zarzavat »

YetAnotherNick wrote: post #140
zarzavat wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI doesn’t own transformers, they didn’t even invent them. They just have the best one at this particular time. They have no moat. At some point, someone else will make a competitive model, if it’s Facebook then it might even be open source, and the industry will see price competition downwards .

The difference between openai and next best model seems to be increasing and not decreasing. Maybe Google's gemini could be competitive, but I don't believe open source will match OpenAI's capability ever. Also OpenAI gets significant discount on compute due to favourable deals from Nvidia and Microsoft. And they could design their server better for their homogenous needs. They are already working on AI chip.

Being ahead in a race doesn’t mean you’re going to win. Open source models will win eventually because they have the lowest marginal cost to run.

People will figure out what OpenAI is doing and duplicate it. There’s many people working at OpenAI, it’s going to leak out.

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#200

Post by oezi »

PaulHoule wrote: post #160
ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Completely wrong, the best AI will win. There is insane demand for better models.

Depends how you define quality. This paper reflects my own experience https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.08377 and shows how LLM technology has a lot more to offer than "ChatGPT". The real takeaway is that by training LLMs with real training data (even with a "less powerful" model) you can get an error rate more than 10x less than you get with the "zero shot" model of asking ChatGPT to answer a question for you the same way…

If you look back just 2 years we had the grinds build those specialized models for QA, NER, Sentiment, Classification etc. and all their deep investment was rug-pulled by GPT-3 and then GPT-4.

You say that training datasets will win, but this is where OpenAI is currently have a big leg up: Everyone is dumping tons of real data into them, while the LocalLLM crowd is using GPT-4 to try to keep up.

We will see who is faster.

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