OpenAI is too cheap to beat • Hacker News Board

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#31

Post by SkyMarshal » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:02 PM UTC

sarchertech wrote: post #25

SkyMarshal wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Probably the first two, plus first-mover brand recognition. Millions of $20 monthly subs for GPT4 add up. They might also be operating at a loss afaik, but I suspect they're one of the few that can break even just based on scale, brand recognition, and economics.

I haven’t heard any evidence that they have millions of Plus subscribers. I’ve seen 100 to 200 million active users, but nothing about paid users from them. The surveys I saw when doing a quick google search reported much less than 1% of users paying.

Yeah I don't know what the actual subscription numbers are, would be surprised if OpenAI is publishing that info.

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#32

Post by Eumenes » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:02 PM UTC

"too cheap to beat" sounds anti-competitive and monopolistic. Large LLM providers are not dissimilar to industrial operations at scale - it requires alot of infrastructure and the more you buy/rent, the cheaper it gets. Early bird gets the worm I guess.

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#33

Post by BudaDude » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:03 PM UTC

grahamplace wrote: post #28

SkyMarshal wrote: post #15

I think OpenAI may eventually have to go upmarket, as basic "good enough" AI becomes increasingly viable and cheap/free on consumer level devices, supplied by FOSS models and apps. Apple may be leading the way here, with Apple Silicon prioritizing AI processing and built into all their devices. These capabilities are free (or at least don't require an extra sub), and just used to sell more hardware. OpenAI is clearly…

> OpenAI is clearly going to compete in that market with its upcoming phone What phone are you referring to? A quick google didn’t seem to pull up anything related to OpenAI launching a hardware product?

They are most likely referring to this in collaboration with Jony Ive:

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/openai-jony-ive-talks-ra...

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#34

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:04 PM UTC

grahamplace wrote: post #28

SkyMarshal wrote: post #15

I think OpenAI may eventually have to go upmarket, as basic "good enough" AI becomes increasingly viable and cheap/free on consumer level devices, supplied by FOSS models and apps. Apple may be leading the way here, with Apple Silicon prioritizing AI processing and built into all their devices. These capabilities are free (or at least don't require an extra sub), and just used to sell more hardware. OpenAI is clearly…

> OpenAI is clearly going to compete in that market with its upcoming phone What phone are you referring to? A quick google didn’t seem to pull up anything related to OpenAI launching a hardware product?

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#35

Post by bitcurious » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:04 PM UTC

mensetmanusman wrote: post #27

SkyMarshal wrote: post #15

I think OpenAI may eventually have to go upmarket, as basic "good enough" AI becomes increasingly viable and cheap/free on consumer level devices, supplied by FOSS models and apps. Apple may be leading the way here, with Apple Silicon prioritizing AI processing and built into all their devices. These capabilities are free (or at least don't require an extra sub), and just used to sell more hardware. OpenAI is clearly…

Please Apple let me replace worthless Siri with ChatGPT on my iPhone. Would completely change how I use the device.

If you have the new iPhone with the action button, you can set a shortcut to ask questions of ChatGPT. It’s not as fluid as Siri, and can’t control anything, but still much more useful.

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#36

Post by cainxinth » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:04 PM UTC

minimaxir wrote: post #18

When the ChatGPT API was released 7 months ago, I posted a controversial blog post that the API was so cheap, it made other text-generating AI obsolete: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35110998 7 months later, nothing's changed surprisingly. Even open-source models are trickier to get to be more cost-effective despite the many inference optimizations since. Anthropic Claude is closer to price and quality effecti…

These are still early days. All the major players are willing to lose billions to be top of mind with consumers in an emerging market.

Either there will be some major technological breakthrough that lowers their costs, or they will all eventually start raising prices.

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#37

Post by MillionOClock » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:04 PM UTC

awesomeMilou wrote: post #29

SkyMarshal wrote: post #15

I think OpenAI may eventually have to go upmarket, as basic "good enough" AI becomes increasingly viable and cheap/free on consumer level devices, supplied by FOSS models and apps. Apple may be leading the way here, with Apple Silicon prioritizing AI processing and built into all their devices. These capabilities are free (or at least don't require an extra sub), and just used to sell more hardware. OpenAI is clearly…

> OpenAI is clearly going to compete in that market with its upcoming phone. Excuse me, I'm not an english native, you mean like a smart phone? Or do you mean some sort of other new business direction? Where did you get the info thtat they're planning to launch a phone?

I believe there has been rumors that OpenAI was working with Jony Ive to create a wearable device, but it was unclear wether it would be a phone or something else.

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#38

Post by shrubble » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:05 PM UTC

dekhn wrote: post #23

daft_pink wrote: post #7

I’m confused don’t a100s cost 10,000 to buy? Why would you pay 166k per year to rent?

How much does an A100 consume in power a year (in dollar costs)? How much does it cost to hire and retain datacenter techs? How long does it take to expand your fleet after a user says "we're gonna need more A100s?" How many discounts can you get as a premier customer? Answer these questions, and the equation shifts a bunch!

Not really.

A full rack with 16 amps usable power and some bandwidth is $400/month in Kansas City, MO. That is enough to power 5x A100s 24x7, so 10k plus $80 per month each, amortized, of course many more A100s would drop the price.

Once installed in the rack ($250 1 time cost) you shouldn't need to touch it. So 10k plus $1250 per A100, per year including power. You can put 2 or 3 A100s per cheapo Celeron based CPU with motherboards.

Of course if doing very bursty work then it may well make sense to rent...

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#39

Post by SkyMarshal » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:05 PM UTC

awesomeMilou wrote: post #29

SkyMarshal wrote: post #15

I think OpenAI may eventually have to go upmarket, as basic "good enough" AI becomes increasingly viable and cheap/free on consumer level devices, supplied by FOSS models and apps. Apple may be leading the way here, with Apple Silicon prioritizing AI processing and built into all their devices. These capabilities are free (or at least don't require an extra sub), and just used to sell more hardware. OpenAI is clearly…

> OpenAI is clearly going to compete in that market with its upcoming phone. Excuse me, I'm not an english native, you mean like a smart phone? Or do you mean some sort of other new business direction? Where did you get the info thtat they're planning to launch a phone?

Yes a smartphone, /corrected. It's a recent announcement:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/28/technology/openai-apple-s...

Re: OpenAI is too cheap to beat

#40

Post by layer8 » Thu, Oct 12, 2023, 7:06 PM UTC

awesomeMilou wrote: post #29

SkyMarshal wrote: post #15

I think OpenAI may eventually have to go upmarket, as basic "good enough" AI becomes increasingly viable and cheap/free on consumer level devices, supplied by FOSS models and apps. Apple may be leading the way here, with Apple Silicon prioritizing AI processing and built into all their devices. These capabilities are free (or at least don't require an extra sub), and just used to sell more hardware. OpenAI is clearly…

> OpenAI is clearly going to compete in that market with its upcoming phone. Excuse me, I'm not an english native, you mean like a smart phone? Or do you mean some sort of other new business direction? Where did you get the info thtat they're planning to launch a phone?

https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-jony-ive-talks-rai...