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Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

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Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In terms of housing, the $1000 a month group only improved by 6% more than the $50 group. 6 percentage points more, not 6% more. Kind of a big difference. A 26% increase is 30% more than a 20% increase. Group B has a 75% increase in participants finding housing compared to the control group. > That is to say, even if you just give people enough money every month to get an apartment with a roommate, only 6% will act…

>Kind of a big difference. A 26% increase is 30% more than a 20% increase Percentage point changes are the right measurement. If the treatment group rose by 1%, and the control group rose by 0.1%, would you be excited that the treatment group was 1000% higher improvement than control?

> Percentage point changes are the right measurement.

I'm not really contesting what the right measure is, I'm pointing out how substantially different the two are and that its important to be clear which one you're using.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#143
post #83
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is only because we have decided life's necessities should be sold to you with a healthy profit margin. It says a lot about our society when we say that no, poor people should not get more money, it would just be gobbled up by increased rents. Things like socialized housing, medicine, transportation, communication, education, as well as food, would do a lot to solve this, but since we've decided that these essent…

> we have decided life's necessities should be sold to you with a healthy profit margin First, profit margins on things like groceries are pretty small. That's why grocery store chains are heavily consolidated: the only way to make a decent overall income in this business is with volume. Second, both basic economics and all human history teach us that the best way to maximize the quantity and quality of "life's neces…

GP did not articulate their point well, but you've straw-manned them about groceries. GP specifically enumerated housing, healthcare, transport etc - not groceries.

I assume HN users are American unless informed otherwise. I'm glad that your health insurance bureaucrats can make a salary, but it's nonsense to believe that's a good way to run a society, even if it is profitable for some or can be deemed to be "free-market provision". There are better models that still generate income for pharma and doctors and nurses.

America made the car part of its identity. Your society was moulded by automotive lobbying in the twentieth century, on the hill and in town planning. It's great that car makers can generate income, but they've mugged you. All the mandatory spending on that sector could be optional, and the rational actors in your economy could use that money to maximise their personal profit functions in a way that encourages entrepreneurs to create new value.

It simply should not cost six figures to turn a school graduate into a doctor or lawyer. It's great that universities generate income and employ people, but you made bad choices there. A professor spends 10-20 hours a week teaching a class of fifty - research grants come from industry - where's the fucking money gone?

House builders deserve to get paid, but when you condemn a generation to rent slavery, you curtail their economic activity, making yourselves much poorer collectively and individually than you would be if your young could afford to take part in other parts of the economy. It's not like your rent-seekers can't cream income from other capital investments, there are ways to turn money into more money that increase liquidity for businesses. Housing isn't mandated by the laws of the universe to be an income stream.

If we translate Maslow's pyramid into goods and services, at the bottom we have groceries - which moooost people can afford, yay, you win a point; then housing, which is touch-and-go for a large minority; then leisure time and retirement planning and non-vocational education, which are enjoyed by only the wealthy.

And this is because pretty much every move your country makes is individualistic instead of collectivist... where the individuals in question are specifically rich and powerful ones. So you have apparently phenomenal GDP per capita but only 90% functional literacy, and lots of you die indigent because you got cancer. That GDP, I assert, is fucking fictitious. I'm sure America is rich one way or the other but it looks like the books are being cooked. If you claim that a university degree is $50k then your claim of $50k GDP is bollocks. Where is the actual production that you write down as $10k for having a broken arm set?

John Galt shat in your mouths and you're calling it stew.

Sorry if this rambled. GP, please let me know if I've fleshed out your point or missed it entirely.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#144
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think UBI is a politically stable idea. It will be diluted by different initiatives to favour certain groups over others, and the actual UBI income will soon be eaten by inflation. Fast forward 10 years and the same problems will remain.

> Fast forward 10 years and the same problems will remain. I don’t have a strong opinion on UBI, but I want to challenge you on this. If everyone gets $20k per year, let’s say the median earner goes from $40k to $60k. An increase of 50%. And let’s assume that we don’t increase taxes, even though it would definitely play a role. Pretty soon, inflation kicks in and everything goes up 50% in price. But a low income earn…

Yes, and...

Poor people buy goods, driving a productive economy. Rich people buy financial vehicles. Yeah yeah yeah liquidity makes it easier for businesses to raise capital... tired old bollocks. However seductive the reasoning may sound, it's turned out to be bullshit every time it's tried. If the financial sector is the most profitable part of your economy, you've got it precisely the wrong way round.

Predicating your economy on appeasing the rich is like putting accountants in charge of a company - the headline numbers look good for two years, then it dawns on you that you don't have any products to sell.

You get a more vigorous economy when the poor people can take part, because while they may not spend much, there's a lot of them.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#146
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't give everyone $20K without raising taxes. The money has to come from somewhere. Taxes would go up to pay for it. You can't have both UBI and the current tax rates.

Realistically you may be correct - however, it is within the realms of possibility that enabling poor people to take part in the economy will drive value creation, and that this increase to the tax base could fund UBI. Stock buy-backs don't create any value, or, if they do, it is obscure to me. You may get a one-time bump in capital gains tax, but it's nothing to build an economy on. A million new dishwashers, though…

A very fair question, but the possibility of such happenings could probably not be used for the initial funding stream

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#147

I'm all about _private_ people giving their money away to those less fortunate, but guys... We're talking about a city that is a mile high in altitude and has exotic Winter and Snow seasons, and this is a 6 month study?

If you are asking why the study isn't covering a period of time including winter, it's because the study goes for a full year and this is only a report at the half way point. > On Tuesday, the group released data on the halfway mark of the pilot program, showing that rates of homelessness and food insecurity decreased, while shelter and employment rates increased over the past six months.

I was pointing out I think it's a little early to draw any conclusions, even if they are positive.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#148
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does if he has a job. Which he must since he says he pays taxes. Having a job means you are producing something that's of enough value to others that people will pay you for it. That's contributing to society.

People are paid for all sorts of things that are harmful to society.

Harmful according to whom?

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#149
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we have decided life's necessities should be sold to you with a healthy profit margin First, profit margins on things like groceries are pretty small. That's why grocery store chains are heavily consolidated: the only way to make a decent overall income in this business is with volume. Second, both basic economics and all human history teach us that the best way to maximize the quantity and quality of "life's neces…

If only things were so simple as suggested by the 60 year old textbooks! Supermarket chains are heavily consolidated because they can use a high margin on unnecessary luxuries like packaged foods and off-season produce to undercut local grocers who had otherwise been profitable selling seasonal produce and regional meat. “But clearly, consumers end up ahead if the necessities are cheaper at the supermarket!” you say.…

> The consumer spends more overall because they are coaxed into buying the luxuries that they wouldn’t have cared much about otherwise.

If only things were so black and white as suggested by your rhetoric.

A consumer who buys the same things as they were buying before, just at cheaper prices, is better off, even by your criteria. Nobody holds a gun to people's heads and forces them to buy "unnecessary luxuries".

A consumer who chooses to spend additional money on what you are pleased to call "unnecessary luxuries" that they could not buy at all before, because nobody was selling them, is also better off--not by your gerrymandered criterion, but by the standard criterion of economists, from those "60 year old textbooks" to today: they have options they didn't have before, and they are choosing to exercise those options. That is what "wealth" is--people having more choices.

> Supermarkets are not a good example if you’re trying to champion capitalism!

I said "free market", not capitalism. They're not the same thing. Large supermarket chains happen to be an example of both, but not all examples work out that way.

In fact, even the large supermarket chain example is not completely a free market example, because the government messes with food prices by subsidizing particular food crops in order to favor large agribusinesses over small farmers. To the extent that helped to enable large supermarket chains to undercut local grocery stores, that is an illustration of capitalism being against free markets.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#150

The problem with UBI is the landlords will just jack the rents accordingly. That's what happened in the UK when the govt introduced Housing Benefit. The landlords jacked the rent. So effectively the taxpayer subsidizes landlords.

I tend to worry about this too; if UBI has a chance in hell at working we’d have to pair it will a wild increase in the availability in housing including in the biggest and most desirable population centers.

And even if that occurred and the housing cost issue is avoided, companies of all stripes will be angling hard to capture people’s new additional income.

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