Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project • Hacker News Board

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#91

Post by LoganDark » Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 9:16 PM UTC

ProjectArcturis wrote: post #84

I'm actually amazed at how little basic income helps people. The study had a control group which only received $50/month in aid (vs treatment groups that got $1000 a month or $6500 upfront and then $500 a month). The control group improved nearly as much as either of the treatment groups! In terms of housing, the $1000 a month group only improved by 6% more than the $50 group. That is to say, even if you just give pe…

> the extra $950 per month does surprisingly little in this population.

It makes sense - housing tends to cost just a bit more than that. Just two or three times more.

It can often be better spent on things that matter more than housing, especially if one doesn't want to live with a roommate.

I wouldn't think this way personally, I would want somewhere to live at the bare minimum. But homeless is an entire spectrum.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#92

Post by deathanatos » Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 9:16 PM UTC

EGreg wrote: post #62

misja111 wrote: post #4

But this is not what basic income is about, is it? As far as I know, basic income means that everybody receives a fixed income, rich or poor. What happens in Denver is just a social project, the only thing mildly special about it is that recipients didn't have to do anything in return. But there have been many of such projects in countries all over the world.

They keep changing the U in Universal to Unconditional, or taking it out altogether, such as with https://mayorsforagi.org which is means-tested

Any UBI proposal is means-tested pretty much by definition.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#93

Post by mongol » Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 9:18 PM UTC

pdonis wrote: post #69

aimor wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is still a study about UBI, it's looking at differences based on how the income is delivered. A part of UBI, different from other types of aid, is that the recipient can spend the money however they see fit. There are question about how well this will work. Will the recipients benefit or suffer by not being restricted in how they spend? Will they benefit or suffer by being given the money all at once at the begi…

> This is still a study about UBI No, it isn't. You can't study UBI by giving income to people who don't currently have income. To study universal basic income, you have to give it to everybody --the same amount--including people who already have income, even people who don't need any additional income. And then you can look at all of the effects, negative (people ceasing to work, or not working as much, because they…

Also, you need to consider how it is payed for. It does not just mean that everyone suddenly have an additional income on top of everything they used to have. You now also have money circulating in the economy in new patterns. And you also have new taxation used to finance it. Taken together, this will impact prices and costs, and will drive inflation. The effect cannot easily be predicted. But looking at individual behaviour in a limited experiment where everything else stays the same does not cut it.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#94

Post by eikenberry » Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 9:18 PM UTC

Aurornis wrote: post #67

misja111 wrote: post #4

But this is not what basic income is about, is it? As far as I know, basic income means that everybody receives a fixed income, rich or poor. What happens in Denver is just a social project, the only thing mildly special about it is that recipients didn't have to do anything in return. But there have been many of such projects in countries all over the world.

> As far as I know, basic income means that everybody receives a fixed income, rich or poor. People frame it like that, but in practice it would be offset by increased taxes for most. For example, everyone gets $20,000 per year as "universal" basic income. However, your taxes go up $20,000 per year or more because you weren't in the lowest tax bracket. We have to pay for the UBI somehow. UBI of a substantial amount w…

A UBI based on an income tax is not feasible due to the feedback cycle it would engender. As the UBI goes up the % of people who would make the same or greater incomes by quitting and taking UBI would go up. Raising UBI would be extremely popular politically and would go up quickly. This would either drive inflation out of control or erode the income tax base over time until it no longer could support the UBI. Either way it dooms the economy.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#95

Post by gruez » Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 9:18 PM UTC

aimor wrote: post #56

misja111 wrote: post #4

But this is not what basic income is about, is it? As far as I know, basic income means that everybody receives a fixed income, rich or poor. What happens in Denver is just a social project, the only thing mildly special about it is that recipients didn't have to do anything in return. But there have been many of such projects in countries all over the world.

This is still a study about UBI, it's looking at differences based on how the income is delivered. A part of UBI, different from other types of aid, is that the recipient can spend the money however they see fit. There are question about how well this will work. Will the recipients benefit or suffer by not being restricted in how they spend? Will they benefit or suffer by being given the money all at once at the begi…

>There are question about how well this will work. Will the recipients benefit or suffer by not being restricted in how they spend? Will they benefit or suffer by being given the money all at once at the beginning of the year vs receiving monthly sums? These are good questions without obvious answers.

Shouldn't they worry more about questions that are related to whether UBI gets implemented in the first place? For instance, whether there's a work disincentive associated with it, or whether the program is cheaper than regular welfare. Figuring out answers to the questions you listed is putting the cart before the horse.

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#96

Post by mhb » Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 9:18 PM UTC

itishappy wrote: post #50

Detrytus wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But they are not giving it to everyone, just to homeless people. That does not warrant the "Universal" part of the name. EDIT: I think I misread the whole thing, it really does not say "Universal" anywhere :) Anyway, I think someone, soon will try to use this project as an argument in favor of UBI, which is ridiculous.

> I think someone, soon will try to use this project as an argument in favor of UBI, which is ridiculous. Why's that ridiculous? Testing a small scale trial on the people most likely to be effected by a larger scale program seems pretty reasonable to me.

If you offer free plate glass to all store owners, the stores with already broken windows will have a large benefit. What happens to the glass you gave to stores that don't need the glass? Do they sell it on eBay? Store it somewhere?

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#97

Post by aimor » Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 9:19 PM UTC

LoganDark wrote: post #8

$1,000 a month won't even get you a small apartment where I live. You'd need double that just to rent one. Denver citizens must be lucky. My current home costs around $1,600 a month, utilities not included.

Yes, it's not enough. But read the interviews to see how it helped: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iX4U46CdPIjjQtq0-P5jlHNfloc...

”We were already looking for a spot because I got into a housing program. [...] For the month, I need $3,000 to get through and live paycheck to paycheck. But then getting approved and accepted for it [DBIP], it was definitely a relief. I wasn’t going to have to come up with all the money for the apartment."

"I was actually able to pay off my debts literally just in time for me to get into a place, and I got the receipt just in time saying that I paid off my debt so that I was able to be accepted into housing."

"It's going to rent, to my car, to be able to afford living. To be able to go to this little program I’m going to for 22 weeks [of job training], to be able to make 50-60k a year. For me, that’s living life. That’s where I need to be. [...] Right now, the way I’m striving, I just feel proud."

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#98

Post by WillPostForFood » Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 9:20 PM UTC

Mandatum wrote: post #26

WillPostForFood wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need a small apartment to get out of homelessness, you just need a room What's the cheapest shared room (roommate wanted) where you live? e.g. https://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/roo?max_price=500#search...

You obviously have never lived with unstable people who often live just above the poverty line. There’s a reason why share houses and shelters don’t work.

I totally grant you that $1000 doesn't solve long term homelessness driven by drug addiction and mental illness. That group likely wouldn't spend the money on housing anyway.

But it does offer a viable solution for transient homelessness for working poor who might have lost a job, become disabled, been evicted, etc..

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#99

Post by lawlessone » Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 9:21 PM UTC

asdff wrote: post #82

onion2k wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somewhat counterintuitively, UBI reduces bureaucracy. It's far simpler to just give everyone the same basic income than having government agencies checking who should or shouldn't get welfare, which saves vast amounts of wasted money. In some studies it's been suggested that UBI would actually be cheaper to fund that all government social welfare - in other words, under a system of UBI, taxes could go down .

It allows for profit seeking if you allow it to be used on for profit necessities. This is why socialized housing, healthcare, education, and all else of life's essentials is so important. No one should be allowed to profit on what you need just to exist in the modern world, that seems so perverse while we have this technological society capable of lifting up so many if incentives were merely adjusted from the indivi…

>It allows for profit seeking if you allow it to be used on for profit necessities.

This is a feature. I think a UBI will be necessary in the future to just to maintain capitalism.

If automation eventually means the average person is unemployed who's going to buy your companies products?

Re: Is giving people cash working? Six months of Denver's Basic Income Project

#100

Post by pdonis » Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 9:21 PM UTC

stouset wrote: post #60

webdood90 wrote: post #29

[flagged]

UBI is a practical solution. Education and reproductive changes don’t alter the reality that you can spend years working on developing skills in an industry that rapidly disappears due to technological upheaval. It also doesn’t change the fact that you can’t remedy a plummeting number of jobs for low-educated people by educating everyone. Will pilots be necessary in ten years? Twenty? Fifty? What do we do about the f…

> UBI is a practical solution.

No, it isn't. All of the issues you describe are business realities; they are facts of life that everyone has to deal with. You can't make those issues go away by guaranteeing everyone an income, because those issues are issues of production, not consumption. Guaranteeing everyone an income doesn't magically enable us to predict the future or magically retrain people instantly for new jobs when old ones become obsolete. It doesn't magically get the right goods and services produced for everyone's income to be spent on.

In other words, whether we like it or not, we are all exposed to the risks you describe, and UBI does not magically un-expose us to them. The only really practical way of dealing with those risks is for everyone to take a share of them; that means everyone has to be responsible for their own future planning, for being aware of the extent to which their current skills and jobs are becoming obsolete, and to plan their future accordingly. In other words, every mature adult needs to be able to act like a mature adult and take responsibility for their own lives. There is no magical solution that frees anyone from the need to do that.