Does Market Timing Work? • Hacker News Board

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#231

Post by AnthonyMouse » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 7:33 PM UTC

bumby wrote: post #229

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I agree with this, but the problem is that there is no guarantee of work being available to everyone. With the rise of AI and hyper-specialization of work, that problem is only going to get worse. The key here is to make sure that automation and cost efficiencies make it through to the production of necessities, and we don't prop up artificial scarcity. There are an effectively unlimited number of jobs that employe…

How do you see automation helping housing? I work in an org interested in 3D printed structures and it still seems a long way off. Or are you looking at improvements in logistics that make it easier to live in less expensive areas?

It can be more than one thing. But one of the interesting possibilities for housing is modular construction. You mass produce homes on an assembly line as walls prefitted with plumbing and electrical, put them on a truck and snap them together at the site. Now you can produce them wherever labor costs are low and assemble them in a matter of days or weeks rather than months or years.

This doesn't get you out of zoning restrictions but could allow you to recover from their historical effects more quickly after zoning reform is achieved.

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#232

Post by bumby » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 7:35 PM UTC

pjlegato wrote: post #190

sandworm101 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> 1 - People should be able to retire. Why? Retirement is a very recent phenomena. The idea of someone earning enough during their working life to then fund several decades of non-working life is a very modern thing, maybe only the last sixty years or so. Only a very rarified few were ever wealthy enough to actively stop working prior to becoming physically unable to work. And then, for most all of human history, th…

Too many people here use the drive-by "downvote" as a means of expressing their disagreement. This comment is a perfectly rational and polite contribution to an on-topic intellectual discussion of retirement, yet has received a large number of downvotes. People, if you disagree, that's fine, but make some kind of a (polite, rational) counterargument rather than abusing "downvote" to express your visceral disgust at b…

Also, to tag in, I believe downvoting is best to mark something that goes against the HN guidelines rather than just a sentiment you may disagree with.

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#233

Post by FooBarWidget » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 7:36 PM UTC

sandworm101 wrote: post #149

Devasta wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1 - People should be able to retire. 2 - Their retirement should be financed by 401ks and the like. 3 - Stock Markets can go down as well as up. You can't have all three, so the government will always ensure that the stock market goes up long term.

>> 1 - People should be able to retire. Why? Retirement is a very recent phenomena. The idea of someone earning enough during their working life to then fund several decades of non-working life is a very modern thing, maybe only the last sixty years or so. Only a very rarified few were ever wealthy enough to actively stop working prior to becoming physically unable to work. And then, for most all of human history, th…

Several decades? In Netherlands retirement age is 67. Will probably be 70 by the time I retire. Males live 75 on average so that's less than a decade of retirement.

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#234

Post by FooBarWidget » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 7:38 PM UTC

LapsangGuzzler wrote: post #164

sandworm101 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> 1 - People should be able to retire. Why? Retirement is a very recent phenomena. The idea of someone earning enough during their working life to then fund several decades of non-working life is a very modern thing, maybe only the last sixty years or so. Only a very rarified few were ever wealthy enough to actively stop working prior to becoming physically unable to work. And then, for most all of human history, th…

You could apply this argument to so many modern workforce changes, for example, the 40-hour 5-day workweek. Throughout history, most workers have not had the kind of rights that they do today. I think we all deserve to make progress on things like retirement instead of making arguments like this. Sure, retirement hasn’t always been a guarantee, but can we agree that this isn’t a good thing? We never question the desi…

Retired people can provide a lot of value in ways that can't be expressed in money. A lot of parents will be fscked if they don't have grandparents to help out with kids.

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#235

Post by bumby » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 7:38 PM UTC

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #224

the_gastropod wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current system is mathematically unsustainable pretty much by the design of a certain political faction interested in demonstrating the incompetence of government. Removing the income cap—currently around $160k—on the social security tax would do a great deal to make social security sustainable (and more equitable).

> The current system is mathematically unsustainable pretty much by the design of a certain political faction interested in demonstrating the incompetence of government. The current system is mathematically unsustainable as a result of politics. If you're going to untie benefits from payments then the first sensible thing to do is to make the same payments to everyone instead of giving more to people who made more mo…

>the government owes itself money: it's a debit and a credit in equal amounts and nets to zero

Can you elaborate? It seems like the govt has a liability and the pensioners have an asset.

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#236

Post by kelnos » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 7:39 PM UTC

sandworm101 wrote: post #149

Devasta wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1 - People should be able to retire. 2 - Their retirement should be financed by 401ks and the like. 3 - Stock Markets can go down as well as up. You can't have all three, so the government will always ensure that the stock market goes up long term.

>> 1 - People should be able to retire. Why? Retirement is a very recent phenomena. The idea of someone earning enough during their working life to then fund several decades of non-working life is a very modern thing, maybe only the last sixty years or so. Only a very rarified few were ever wealthy enough to actively stop working prior to becoming physically unable to work. And then, for most all of human history, th…

Why not? Why is working all (or nearly all) of your life the default?

I forgot which, but one of the more popular economists of the last century believed that, with productivity gains, people would be working much, much shorter work-weeks by now.

He was only sorta wrong: the productivity gains did actually happen, but we decided to use the extra time to do more work, not do the same amount of work and take the rest in leisure.

There's nothing that says that we as a civilization couldn't decide to slow down and relax more. I know that this won't happen; capitalists run the world, and they'll never accept this sort of arrangement. But it's not like this is some sort of inherent natural must-do state of existence.

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#237

Post by bumby » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 7:40 PM UTC

yterdy wrote: post #202

dh2022 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they remove the cap on retirement contributions they should also remove the cap on retirement payouts. I would love to see social security pay former CEOs millions of dollars per year:)

No, they shouldn't. SS is meant to prevent destitution, not enable luxury. Wealthy Americans owe the working and consumption classes whose sacrifices make their riches possible; there is no such obligation to ensure those elite earners get back even what they paid into that particular channel, at the expense of people who are much less well off, when they have other resources to draw from. You might not think that's…

Devils advocate: by subsidizing the “consumption class” you enable more consumption. I get that’s how our current economy works but there are probably a lot of negative externalities associated with increasing consumption.

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#238

Post by kelnos » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 7:41 PM UTC

bumby wrote: post #182

LapsangGuzzler wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could apply this argument to so many modern workforce changes, for example, the 40-hour 5-day workweek. Throughout history, most workers have not had the kind of rights that they do today. I think we all deserve to make progress on things like retirement instead of making arguments like this. Sure, retirement hasn’t always been a guarantee, but can we agree that this isn’t a good thing? We never question the desi…

While I agree that most of society should be the beneficiary of productivity gains, I’m not sure retirement is still a net positive. It seems like a lot of health and well-being is related to being a valuable member of society and fortunately or unfortunately, for many, work provides that function.

Ugh, I hate this way of thinking. Perhaps we've all been brainwashed to believe this by capitalism?

I'm perfectly happy pursuing my own interests, at my own pace, without having some overlord making sure I'm maximizing value for some corporation. Sure, I don't want to just sit around doing nothing, but there's a wide gulf of possibilities between that and full-time employment.

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#239

Post by bumby » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 7:43 PM UTC

pjlegato wrote: post #188

wolverine876 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet it works so well that the public overwhelmingly supports it. > borderline unaffordable It's funded by your own income; it's a compulsory savings plan.

This is a common and fundamentally incorrect misconception about Social Security. Many subsequent policy debates are then misinformed. Your money is not ever saved for you. Your retirement is NOT funded by your own past taxes. Your retirement is funded by those younger people who are then working and paying taxes. You can see the details at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_Trust_Fund Payments to retirees…

Isn’t the implication that solvency can be maintained by increasing the age of claimants? It doesn’t have to be a drastic step function, it could be slowly phased in.

Re: Does Market Timing Work?

#240

Post by vineyardmike » Sun, Oct 08, 2023, 7:50 PM UTC

tlarkworthy wrote: post #137

rr808 wrote: post #113

The problem with buy and hold and pretty much every current strategy is that its distorted by the huge 40 year bull market we've seen in the USA. Every American asset has gone up big time - of course "time in the market" is a good thing. If you look at Japanese or European stock markets they tell a very different story. Similarly the next 40 years in the USA could be a miserable time for investors. I can't believe ho…

I believe human ingenuity and power over the elements goes up 7% a year, of which, the stock market is a proxy for. We are a networked organism and good at leveraging innovation at a global scale through supply chains. I see no reason to be pessimistic, we have AI, we have better space flight, we constantly improving energy sources.

One thing to consider though is that our nation has taken a lot of debt -in many philosophical forms- to fuel that growth.

Government deficit spending of course helping the economy. But we eventually have to pay taxes to cover that.

Citizens debt fueled spending on homes and goods. Corporate debt similarly. Student loans of course. Individuals and companies can only tolerate so much debt.

Our oil dependence never accounted for the cost of global warming and pollution, but we’re about to pay for that soon. This applies to many materials we consume, oil being the most prominent.

Corporations have systematically slowed pay growth while increasing prices, eventually consumers will be unable to afford enough goods to keep the machine spinning at full (growing 7%) capacity.

Our shrinking population from historic highs means each working person will need to contribute a bigger share to reach that 7%, while having more people to support.