Earlier quoted context omitted.
>I wondered the other day what the result would be if you strapped a microphone on a baby and every utterance that both the baby and mic heard was fed through speech-to-text and went toward training the baby's personal LLM. I read about a paper[1] a while back, it was a rather unpleasant animal study in cats. Using two kittens, one was free to look around, but the other they immobilised in some way, and made it see w…
LLMs already do this in their own way. It's not like they learn to predict through magic osmosis. They make predictions and depending on how right or wrong they are, their neurons are shifted by grad descent to accommodate this error. Then they predict again. The Text is the environment, The Text is the world and they are very much interacting with it.
John Carmack and Rich Sutton partner to accelerate development of AGI
211–220 of 226 posts
Re: John Carmack and Rich Sutton partner to accelerate development of AGI
#212Earlier quoted context omitted.
>I wondered the other day what the result would be if you strapped a microphone on a baby and every utterance that both the baby and mic heard was fed through speech-to-text and went toward training the baby's personal LLM. I read about a paper[1] a while back, it was a rather unpleasant animal study in cats. Using two kittens, one was free to look around, but the other they immobilised in some way, and made it see w…
I can see us walking into a situation where we make a robot that has motor functions, but we don't give it the equivalent of nerves and nerve endings so and so it doesn't feel pain. That would definitely warp a human's development. But then, is it ethical to build in pain receptors? Feels like we're brushing up against the territory of gods.
I ask this as I think the ethical dilemma should more about implementing suffering as a long term damaging effect of a stimuli.
When I think about pain I see it as a level that triggers a need to change something. Our brains are perceiving this level in a very uncomfortable way so we call this pain.
So I really think that without consciousness we cannot implement pain or suffering as we humans perceive it.
Re: John Carmack and Rich Sutton partner to accelerate development of AGI
#213Accelerate AGI So the hardware has finally become powerful enough to create the super mind. Remember this: John Carmack is a hard working games developer. He is not done great philosopher. By chance, some Armageddon level shot has been put in his hands. All I can say, please stop and think for a while Mr Carmack. You are playing with fire. Don’t kill us all, please.
At this point, it’s not about whether we get AGI or not. It’s about who gets AGI first: USA or China
Re: John Carmack and Rich Sutton partner to accelerate development of AGI
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
Almost certainly not true. Consider pronouns, as they reference other words, therefore cannot be written in isolation. Or simple rules about when to use "an" or "a". Shaping your words to sound correct is very common. Both in speech and in writing. Sometimes it is finding how to fit a word you want to use into a sentence. Sometimes it is building a rhyme. You may feel that you go a word at a time, but that really sho…
Right now we don't know if LLM's are also doing this, or not. In their calculating the 'next' word, as part of that 'weighting', are the 'simple rules' for future words, that you are saying humans do but LLM's can't.
Re: John Carmack and Rich Sutton partner to accelerate development of AGI
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sometimes people use LLMs very broadly to talk about neural networks overall. But to be clear, humans don't have emergent reasoning from language, we learn language as part of our overall reasoning. The short evidence for that being that children are capable of solving logic and spatial puzzles before they learn how to speak. Humans learn concepts like object permanence before we learn language complicated enough to…
Definitely, LLM's have gotten so much press, that many people arguing about 'AI', are thinking about LLM. And, LLM's are not all that a human can do. Language is not everything about a human. But there is an argument that there is part of the brain that produces language, and it has some LLM characteristics. It's just that the brain is bigger and does more than an LLM. So the brain is not an LLM. The brain has many c…
We don't learn to read or write by doing token prediction (if we did, subjects like spelling would be much easier). In fact, there was a movement in schools to teach reading by asking students to predict what words might be based on the context of the sentence, and it was a disaster and led to increased illiteracy rates and schools have started shifting back to phonics. Not only do we not learn that way, when we try to learn that way it leads to worse education outcomes.
The reason why brains are not like an LLM is not because we also have eyes and an LLM doesn't, it's because just isolating out our language "models", we are trained differently and interact with the rest of our brains differently.
If our language centers of our brain worked like an LLM, we would expect language skills to develop faster than reasoning capabilities within our writing/speaking. A primitive LLM like GPT-2 has very limited processing ability but is still able to imitate a wide range of styles and is still able to "speak" in a grammatically correct way. Humans are the opposite: we start out communicating complex ideas poorly and we start out using language poorly. We master language as a processing tool before we become competent at using language in general.
Re: John Carmack and Rich Sutton partner to accelerate development of AGI
#216Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah but do you write that one word based on the past 1000 or so words that come before it and how each of those words relate to each other with a perfect recollection of each word at the same time? And if you believe you do that subconsciously, then how can you be sure you don’t subconsciously plan a few words ahead?
I don't think I do. To a large degree, GPT does write better.
But it doesn’t write better as in has new, challenging ideas. Or ways to move/relate to humans on a personal level.
GPT writes clear, concise, authoritative, boring, and generic text.
Re: John Carmack and Rich Sutton partner to accelerate development of AGI
#217Earlier quoted context omitted.
Perhaps there is some belief in this that an AGI can save us from our biggest problems? Energy Crisis, Environmental Pollution, Waging Wars. But I agree with you ... it is not really urgent since we know answers for the most of the problems but do not like the solution.
A true AGI would determine the only solution to our crisis is the elimination of the human race...
Re: John Carmack and Rich Sutton partner to accelerate development of AGI
#218Earlier quoted context omitted.
I know by repeatedly by starting anywhere at all and asking "but why is that ?", if you will. Furthermore by pondering it and realizing that even if I ever found a perfectly harmonious explanation for all my observations, I would have no clue if reality wasn't even more complex beyond of what I can perceive of it. So, I'm still only really dealing with my own observations and narratives, and even if I got the answer…
> Maybe gravity makes things fall down, sure, but maybe there are tiny kobolds in the spaces between all particles with little clipboards that calculate the correct motion and cast spells to move them. I'm not trying to be a smartass, but I honestly tried and could not find bedrock. Can you name (or even just think) something that doesn't rest on something else or an assumption? I honestly can't. I'm not sure how a "…
As I said, just keep asking "why?" or "what does that mean?", then repeat that with the answer. Sooner or later you hit an assumption and a shrug. I wouldn't understand Gödel's proof even if I tried to, I'm sure -- it "rings true" because it matches my own intellectual observations regardless where I turn.
> As long as those assumptions align with reality to the best of our knowledge and the end result passes all tests we can think of, what does it matter whether there might be more to know?
It matters for the question whether you can fully describe a system from within that system, that's all. But I'd argue even whether we made an effort or no effort, whether it passes all the tests we came up with or doesn't, doesn't really matter (in regards to that question) because any ground we cover won't bridge what remains an infinite distance. I still think it's good, but it's more like going for a walk each day: you always arrive where you started out, you're just getting fresh air and what other temporary benefits come with it. It beats just staying where you started out.
I can't find the quote but apparently Werner Heisenberg said something along those lines, that we basically set out to find the bed rock of reality, but more and more are just facing ourselves, that is, our instruments of measurement and ways to conceptualize things. And again, I don't know jack about quantum mechanics and don't want to call on the authority of Heisenberg and Gödel. But I hear they know their fields, right, and it matches everything I know in any area, both the ones I am bad in and the ones I am really bad in.
I'm not saying it's a problem, just that that's how it is. But thinking you know the ultimate and final truth because it passes all tests (e.g. witches sink), and thinking software is actually intelligent because it convinces you it is, when it really isn't, can be super mega dangerous. And comments how picking the statistically most likely word is "basically what our brain does" [0] etc. show an even worse possibility; where we take the shortcut of just confusing what we are creating with us, because then it's easy and now we know how we think (when we really don't, not remotely). It just generally seems backwards to start out with the goal of "AI" when we can't even describe what we're looking for, much less how to build or find it. Having no more than "we'll know it when we have it", plus eagerness to claim we have it, is a recipe for at least a lot of circus, if not disaster.
[0] And that's on HN. Now ponder, for example, the average opinion of HN on say, whether banks should limit your passwords in all sorts of weird way that imply they're not hashing them, and how much worse the "real world" is. In this case, even the people at the forefront are so keen to move fast and break things, so the "real world" is pretty much doomed I'd say.
Re: John Carmack and Rich Sutton partner to accelerate development of AGI
#219Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I lived through the Cold War. I don't need this exercise because, the bottom line is, no one knows what existential risk - if any - will happen. The worst of the Cold War never happened, yet many of us thought it would. Likewise, you might choose to focus on AI as your existential risk, go through all the sacrifices and immoral behaviors that longtermism leads you to do in order to mitigate AI, and then a giant met…
> Your claim seems to boil down to two things: First, people sometimes make very incorrect predictions, so you've stopped worrying about them. Didn't say I stopped worrying about them: global warming worries me. Ubiquitous microplastics worry me. Heavy metals in our food supply & PFAS in our water worries me. > Second, instead, you focus on "doing the right thing" based on your ethical criteria (which, as I say in si…
> Please, remember this: using poor logic and FUD to sully a serious book (based on some vague implied connection to a crook) is not ok.
I wrote this because of your original comment about [William MacAskill]: "Creator of "Centre for Effective Altruism"? Longtermism? No thanks. I thought that philosophy has been debunked as a scam after the likes of Sam Bankman and others. I mean, living unethically today in order to affect future lives positively is not for me."
I'm not going to elaborate in detail about what I've already written, but your comment suggests that Sam Bankman's reputation "debunks" a book (which happens to consist of some moral philosophy, some history, and some application of the ideas to future scenarios). This is poor logic. I hope you would recognize and own this mistake.
Also, yes, I have enjoyed discussing. I have strived to not make any personal attacks, and I apologize if I'm come across as rude.
Re: John Carmack and Rich Sutton partner to accelerate development of AGI
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I lived through the Cold War. I don't need this exercise because, the bottom line is, no one knows what existential risk - if any - will happen. The worst of the Cold War never happened, yet many of us thought it would. Likewise, you might choose to focus on AI as your existential risk, go through all the sacrifices and immoral behaviors that longtermism leads you to do in order to mitigate AI, and then a giant met…
> Your claim seems to boil down to two things: First, people sometimes make very incorrect predictions, so you've stopped worrying about them. Didn't say I stopped worrying about them: global warming worries me. Ubiquitous microplastics worry me. Heavy metals in our food supply & PFAS in our water worries me. > Second, instead, you focus on "doing the right thing" based on your ethical criteria (which, as I say in si…
> Didn't say I stopped worrying about them: global warming worries me. Ubiquitous microplastics worry me. Heavy metals in our food supply & PFAS in our water worries me.
On what basis do you worry about them? Why worry about some more than others? (I know my answers, but I'm interested in how you do it.)
Do you factor in the probability of their occurrence? I'd expect you do, this is sort of inevitable for people, though people aren't typically very well calibrated in probabilities, especially on the upper (near 100%) and lower ends (near 0%).
I'm trying to understand what I perceive as your pushback against moral reasoning that involves probabilities over future scenarios.
Here is my rough overall take at this point: given your ethical foundations (DE or close to it) and life experience (hard to know, often not driven by logic and reason -- such is the human condition) you bristle against consequentialism and longtermism in particular. I get it, but I don't think this is a good place to end up, even when I factor in your core beliefs. I 'chalk it up' to the high cost of mental reorgnization. My hypothesis is this: the 'wedge' examples that people use against consequentialism have had an outsized effect on how you view it. I don't detect any antipathy towards logic or probabilistic reasoning in general, but I also don't perceive a relentless drive towards it.