September was the most anomalously hot month ever • Hacker News Board

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#421

Post by lobocinza » Fri, Oct 06, 2023, 3:59 PM UTC

southernplaces7 wrote: post #403

flagrant_taco wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I sincerely hope that we aren't at a point where most people's guiding principles are minimizing their own poorness or misery. Those should be a given and self interest is backed into us, but we're in for a world of hurt if those are the only deciding factors take into account. Some things are in fact worth dying for.

Bullshit. Nobody can factually, concretely state that climate change will go a specific, certain way to cause a specific certain amount of misery over the next century. There are too many technological, social, economic, and extremely complex climate variables at play for that to be a concrete assertion. This isn't to say that measures to reduce carbon emissions can't or shouldn't be taken, they can and they should,…

That and those that dominate the narrative around climate change are the ones who sabotaged nuclear power in the first place. We don't understand the problem/solution space enough so the most sensible is to invest in climate research and monitoring.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#422

Post by krmboya » Fri, Oct 06, 2023, 4:40 PM UTC

Corrado wrote: post #406

I have a question; if some of the worlds trillionaires suddenly decided to dedicate massive amounts of funds to fighting climate change, would it work? Could we solve this problem simply by throwing money at it? For example, nuclear power plants generally take a lot of resources and time to build. Is there enough money in the world to throw at the problem to build 1,000 nuclear power plants in the next 5 years? Or wh…

The exceedingly wealthy live lives that are most disconnected from hard reality. In a sense, they've abstracted themselves from concerns of a typical human being because they are very atypical, extreme outliers, in view of human history. Thanks to technological development.

If one wants to solve problems of the masses, find one of the masses who lives and breathes it

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#423

Post by majesticglue » Fri, Oct 06, 2023, 4:51 PM UTC

flagrant_taco wrote: post #91

nologic01 wrote: post #50

> Two main factors are at play in driving temperatures to such extremes: their inexorable increase from burning fossil fuels and an El Niño event that is shaping up to be a strong one. It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it…

The debate over exact causes has always felt misguided to me. The planet is extremely complex, human impact on the planet is largely based on estimates and modeling, and at the end of the day an understanding of why it's getting hotter isn't itself a course correction. There are such obvious first steps we could take without a complete understanding of cause if we really cared. We could easily cut our use of fossil f…

well there are easier solutions than "blaming consumers". stop it at the supply. Enforce regulations and demands of the companies importing those "new cloths" and make them responsible for the damage caused.

America loves to gaslit consumers but companies never EVER get the blame, even worse is the CEOs of the companies who make these decisions always get scot free.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#424

Post by olifante » Fri, Oct 06, 2023, 4:55 PM UTC

Fricken wrote: post #383

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USA: Polling shows that US voters favor climate bills – yet assume fellow Americans don’t https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/01/us-vot... UK: > The UK has some of the highest levels of concern regarding the climate emergency in the world with 81 per cent of people ‘believing’ in the climate emergency, with over three-quarters (77 per cent) saying we must do ‘everything necessary, urgently as a respons…

I've read those numbers, and my anecdotal experience more or less corresponds to them. I know plenty of people who acknowledge climate change and think it is serious. They've all had their whole lives to make climate conscious lifestyle decisions, they could all stop eating meat tomorrow, but they ain't done squat. Not as individuals nor as a group. The few who have are weirdos who live at the margins.

Putting the burden on invididuals for averting the climate crisis is a form victim-blaming. It’s long been clear that only concerted collective action will be effective in producing real change.

This is why so many free-market, minimal-state absolutists are so prone to putting their fingers in their ears and pretending climate change is not a problem, or if it is, that individuals as free agents are responsible for creating it and therefore fixing it. They cannot accept the logical conclusion of the necessity of state action, as it contradicts their core beliefs.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#425

Post by esarbe » Fri, Oct 06, 2023, 7:20 PM UTC

holbrad wrote: post #369

esarbe wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I posit that any deliberate misinformation by the oil and gas lobby can and will be equally matched The economic and political power of the oil and gas lobby is magnitudes larger than the economic and political power of the wind and solar lobby. We're talking about entrenched interests here. Also, wind and solar didn't spent more than fifty years spreading misinformation and denialism about an existential threat to…

When discussing market forces and renewables keep in mind, Levelized cost of electricity is a largely useless metric because it doesn't take into account the prohibitively high costs of storage and redundant infrastructure needed for intermittent sources.

I'm not sure that this is completely true.

Yes, it's true that levelized cost is not giving the full picture. But that's not quite the point here. The point is to show that the "free market" is not the solution we're looking for and that waiting for the market to solve this will closely resemble Waiting for Godot.

So sure, that infrastructure needs to be built. But that was also the case for fossil fuels. Think of the massive infrastructure required to get gas to a power plant. Much of that infrastructure is subsidized, it's already there and thus any energy source trying to get into the market cannot just be slightly cheaper; the cost advantages of the established system is just to great.

So in a way, your statement supports my argument that the market will not able to fix this for us.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#426

Post by esarbe » Fri, Oct 06, 2023, 7:28 PM UTC

gottorf wrote: post #372

esarbe wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I posit that any deliberate misinformation by the oil and gas lobby can and will be equally matched The economic and political power of the oil and gas lobby is magnitudes larger than the economic and political power of the wind and solar lobby. We're talking about entrenched interests here. Also, wind and solar didn't spent more than fifty years spreading misinformation and denialism about an existential threat to…

Before you read my detailed response below, my tl;dr point is not that wind and solar suck, or that we need to hold on to oil and gas forever. My most salient point is that proclaiming an "emergency" of an "existential threat" that requires centralized authority (held by decisionmakers who usually pay no cost for being wrong) is a playbook that's as old as history, and one that almost always resulted in great human t…

Then please let me keep this topic focused on your most salient point. If you are interested, I'll happily also discuss your other points in other reply threads.

> My most salient point is that proclaiming an "emergency" of an "existential threat" that requires centralized authority (held by decisionmakers who usually pay no cost for being wrong) is a playbook that's as old as history, and one that almost always resulted in great human toll.

We've known for more than 100 years that there might be an impact on our global climate from our use of fossil fuels. We've known for almost 50 years that there is an impact from our use of fossil fuels. After years of stalling and ignoring the ever stronger signals that something is amiss, the world came together in 2015 and agreed to limit the warming of the climate to 1.5°C.

Now in 2023 we've blown through that self-imposed limit.

The list of likely and dreadful consequences is long and known. I won't repeat them here. Many of them have grave consequences to our global society, some of them are very threatening to social stability. This will have dire consequences.

Up to now we've not really been acting. And we should, because with every passing day, the potential outcome slowly but surely slides more and more into the direction of global systemic collapse.

For me this is not a "climate crisis". It's a climate crisis, period.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#427

Post by Fricken » Fri, Oct 06, 2023, 8:14 PM UTC

olifante wrote: post #424

Fricken wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've read those numbers, and my anecdotal experience more or less corresponds to them. I know plenty of people who acknowledge climate change and think it is serious. They've all had their whole lives to make climate conscious lifestyle decisions, they could all stop eating meat tomorrow, but they ain't done squat. Not as individuals nor as a group. The few who have are weirdos who live at the margins.

Putting the burden on invididuals for averting the climate crisis is a form victim-blaming. It’s long been clear that only concerted collective action will be effective in producing real change. This is why so many free-market, minimal-state absolutists are so prone to putting their fingers in their ears and pretending climate change is not a problem, or if it is, that individuals as free agents are responsible for c…

For even longer it's been clear that any collective (or state for that matter) is made up entirely of individuals. In this case millions of individuals who can't help but give tens of thousands of dollars to the fossil fuel industry each year. I'm really not apt to regard a bunch of people enjoying the fruits of their ill-gotten gains as victims.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#428

Post by flagrant_taco » Fri, Oct 06, 2023, 8:52 PM UTC

majesticglue wrote: post #423

flagrant_taco wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The debate over exact causes has always felt misguided to me. The planet is extremely complex, human impact on the planet is largely based on estimates and modeling, and at the end of the day an understanding of why it's getting hotter isn't itself a course correction. There are such obvious first steps we could take without a complete understanding of cause if we really cared. We could easily cut our use of fossil f…

well there are easier solutions than "blaming consumers". stop it at the supply. Enforce regulations and demands of the companies importing those "new cloths" and make them responsible for the damage caused. America loves to gaslit consumers but companies never EVER get the blame, even worse is the CEOs of the companies who make these decisions always get scot free.

Oh companies are absolutely to blame, but so are the politicians we'd need to actually regulate them.

Enforcing regulations requires quite a few steps first, from defining the scope and likely granting new authority to regulators to actually drafting regulations that are complete and not full of loop holes.

Your argument is also based on the premise that consumers aren't able to make the best choices for themselves and must be forced into it by regulators. I simply refuse to believe this, what are we even doing here if we think real reform can only come from all powerful authorities forcing it upon us?

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#429

Post by flagrant_taco » Fri, Oct 06, 2023, 8:56 PM UTC

southernplaces7 wrote: post #403

flagrant_taco wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I sincerely hope that we aren't at a point where most people's guiding principles are minimizing their own poorness or misery. Those should be a given and self interest is backed into us, but we're in for a world of hurt if those are the only deciding factors take into account. Some things are in fact worth dying for.

Bullshit. Nobody can factually, concretely state that climate change will go a specific, certain way to cause a specific certain amount of misery over the next century. There are too many technological, social, economic, and extremely complex climate variables at play for that to be a concrete assertion. This isn't to say that measures to reduce carbon emissions can't or shouldn't be taken, they can and they should,…

I think we may have a difference in degree when it comes to what we think may be coming. I don't expect the planet to burst into flames over night, but we have already done unimaginable damage to soil, water, and life on this planet. It can probably bounce back and maybe humans will even be here to see it, but in the nearer term I don't see it as a question of mitigating pain while the systems we have today continue to chug along.

I could very well be wrong, and if core systems don't break then I do understand the goal of just being less miserable today.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#430

Post by flagrant_taco » Fri, Oct 06, 2023, 8:59 PM UTC

lobocinza wrote: post #421

southernplaces7 wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bullshit. Nobody can factually, concretely state that climate change will go a specific, certain way to cause a specific certain amount of misery over the next century. There are too many technological, social, economic, and extremely complex climate variables at play for that to be a concrete assertion. This isn't to say that measures to reduce carbon emissions can't or shouldn't be taken, they can and they should,…

That and those that dominate the narrative around climate change are the ones who sabotaged nuclear power in the first place. We don't understand the problem/solution space enough so the most sensible is to invest in climate research and monitoring.

To what end? What will more data do when it's inevitably going to be incomplete and largely based on modeling?

We won't ever understand the problem space of the entire ecosystem well enough to make a complete solution. But there are easy things that can be done if we actually cared to, and we certainly don't need to keep piling on more things that almost certainly make things worse.