September was the most anomalously hot month ever • Hacker News Board

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#251

Post by nsxwolf » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:21 PM UTC

gjulianm wrote: post #114

flagrant_taco wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The debate over exact causes has always felt misguided to me. The planet is extremely complex, human impact on the planet is largely based on estimates and modeling, and at the end of the day an understanding of why it's getting hotter isn't itself a course correction. There are such obvious first steps we could take without a complete understanding of cause if we really cared. We could easily cut our use of fossil f…

> There are such obvious first steps we could take without a complete understanding of cause if we really cared. That's the issue, a lot of people just don't care or refuse to believe it. Questions like the one in the parent comment are starting to seriously annoy me because they're demanding an unachievable level of evidence before doing anything, a level that's never asked for in any other kind of intervention (for…

Everyone leaves out a large cohort - people that believe it, but don't want the solutions you're selling. We typically put forth constructive solutions like nuclear, which get shouted down / laughed out of the room instantly.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#252

Post by useless999 » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:22 PM UTC

esarbe wrote: post #110

mattdeboard wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> assuming that we all agree that civilizational stability is a desirable goal. Sadly this assumption does not seem to hold.

Not if that it requires me to reduce my conspicuous consumption by one cent! I've been trained all my life by media and advertisment to equate the acquisition of cheaply produced, low quality trash with freedom, and you can take it from my cold dead hands. I need to continue buying all that useless crap to feel I have status!

I’m afraid conspicuous consumption predates consumerism by a few millenia :(

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#253

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:22 PM UTC

flagrant_taco wrote: post #91

nologic01 wrote: post #50

> Two main factors are at play in driving temperatures to such extremes: their inexorable increase from burning fossil fuels and an El Niño event that is shaping up to be a strong one. It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it…

The debate over exact causes has always felt misguided to me. The planet is extremely complex, human impact on the planet is largely based on estimates and modeling, and at the end of the day an understanding of why it's getting hotter isn't itself a course correction. There are such obvious first steps we could take without a complete understanding of cause if we really cared. We could easily cut our use of fossil f…

[deleted]

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#254

Post by nradov » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:24 PM UTC

ericmay wrote: post #131

nemo44x wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asking people to have less, experience less, and do less isn’t an argument that can ever win. The winning argument is to show how you can consume more energy for less money by using sustainable technology. Cramped trains will rarely win politically but electric cars that go fast and look cool do win. In essence I believe the only politically viable way to reduce carbon is to engineer and tech our way to systems that…

> Asking people to have less, experience less, and do less isn’t an argument that can ever win. Yes and no. I agree that if your approach is to ask people to do this, you aren't going to win the argument. But instead you can reframe the argument. Does that $70,000 truck that you have to make payments on while you do back-breaking or soul-crushing work to afford it really make you happy? Do you really get use out of t…

The people that I know with those $70K trucks seem to really enjoy them and get a lot of use out of them. Especially for towing trailers they work really well.

If they didn't buy those trucks I don't think they would work any less. They would just spend the money on something else.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#255

Post by esarbe » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:25 PM UTC

useless999 wrote: post #252

esarbe wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not if that it requires me to reduce my conspicuous consumption by one cent! I've been trained all my life by media and advertisment to equate the acquisition of cheaply produced, low quality trash with freedom, and you can take it from my cold dead hands. I need to continue buying all that useless crap to feel I have status!

I’m afraid conspicuous consumption predates consumerism by a few millenia :(

Not on this scale.[0]

[0] https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/a-brief-history-of-consum...'

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#256

Post by nradov » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:26 PM UTC

vixen99 wrote: post #239

nemo44x wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So a government that violently suppresses dissent and only wealthy people can emit CO2? Yeah, sounds great! I don’t think eco-fascism is going to get broad support…

Not sure about that. Announce a climate emergency with huge implications I don't need to detail and you might get away with anything irrespective of support.

A government foolish enough to abuse emergency powers that way would be voted out in the next election.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#257

Post by vlz » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:27 PM UTC

ljf wrote: post #137

jonhohle wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where in the world would this event take place? In the hottest parts of the US the temperature gets to 46ºC regularly during the summer and people have lived there for hundreds of years. Do people die of heat stoke? Sure, at a rate of hundreds per year. Elsewhere in the world there are places where people love in the same heat with less means of cooking and less access to water. Millions of people may have to adapt.…

Where would this take place? In places where the wet bulb temperature is already getting close to the limits of human endurance: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jul/31/why-you-need... People can survive amazingly hot temperatures, as long as they can sweat - once the wet bulb temp gets far above 31c people are in trouble - the theoretical maximum is 35c. We won't hit these wet bulb temps in places like the U…

Thank you! It is really important to emphasize that heat and humidity have both to be taken into account. To quote a relevant passage from the article you linked:

> Concern often centres on the “threshold” or “critical” WBT for humans, the point at which a healthy person could survive for only six hours. This is usually considered to be 35C, approximately equivalent to an air temperature of 40C with a relative humidity of 75%. (At the UK’s 19 July peak temperature, relative humidity was approximately 25% and the wet-bulb temperature about 25C.)

(WBT is Wet Bulb Temperature)

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#258

Post by dragonwriter » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:28 PM UTC

nradov wrote: post #256

vixen99 wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure about that. Announce a climate emergency with huge implications I don't need to detail and you might get away with anything irrespective of support.

A government foolish enough to abuse emergency powers that way would be voted out in the next election.

Abuse emergency powers sufficiently, and there is no next election, at least not on terms where it is possible for you to lose.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#259

Post by bratbag » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:28 PM UTC

maipen wrote: post #210

TheBigSalad wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our power grid is naturally getting more energy efficient and the human population will hopefully start to decline soon.

[flagged]

You understand they were talking about people having fewer children than they used to. Right?

Just on that basis, some people alive right now will live to see the global population shrink.

Re: September was the most anomalously hot month ever

#260

Post by stjohnswarts » Thu, Oct 05, 2023, 4:30 PM UTC

flagrant_taco wrote: post #91

nologic01 wrote: post #50

> Two main factors are at play in driving temperatures to such extremes: their inexorable increase from burning fossil fuels and an El Niño event that is shaping up to be a strong one. It would be quite educational to attribute in more detail the impact of these two factors. The degree of "El Nino" influence is presumably known, and if its strength is not related with global warming in complicated and unknown ways it…

The debate over exact causes has always felt misguided to me. The planet is extremely complex, human impact on the planet is largely based on estimates and modeling, and at the end of the day an understanding of why it's getting hotter isn't itself a course correction. There are such obvious first steps we could take without a complete understanding of cause if we really cared. We could easily cut our use of fossil f…

I always figured that if more liberal politicians enact all at once the grueling regime required for current climate deadlines that it might work for a while but then the citizenry will then just revolt and vote right wing and it will set back all progress that has been made the past couple of decades. I already see it in American politics.