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Lumber prices down 11% YoY

calculatedriskblog.com

101–110 of 156 posts

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#101
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love the tradingeconomics site for tracking commodities prices. Indeed, lumber is at pre-pandemic prices from 5 years ago https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Cripes what is going on with orange juice.. there’s some seasonal patterns in the last 25 years, but the last year has just kept climbing.

It's the Dukes

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Labour is the biggest cost of house building. And during a pandemic, that is almost free, since many people are stuck at home with nothing to do.

I assume it varied greatly by region, but my experience was that it was extremely difficult to find workers during the pandemic response. It seemed like a combination of fear and restrictions, plus free money at least in the US. I saw hourly rates for physical labor jobs go through the roof, double the pre-response rates and still couldn't fill positions.

GP was suggesting that many people found a supply of labor in the mirror while brushing their teeth.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#103
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few factors - labour markets are very tight generally, new housing construction has increased, WFH and hybrid has increased the demand for renovating existing housing to make space for home offices (and improve the amenity of housing more generally).

Constriction of foreign-born labor as well https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/tough-immigration-laws...

There were almost 200k people who crossed into the US illegally in August. It's over 2M people per year now, pouring into the US.

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/cbp-rele....

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right - demand was up because people had more money.

No, people had more time, DIY projects exploded, and that was compounded additionally by supply chain issues (and closures) like everything else with COVID.

Yes this is correct.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#105
post #56
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Metric makes the math easier, but it is much easier for me to relate to 40 board-feet of lumber than to 0.0944 cubic-meters.

Just like temperature. F is easier for me to relate to. 0 is very cold. 100 is very hot. We like it pretty warm, so 70-72 is great. Also F has a much finer scale for adjustments. I don't have to set my thermostat to 22.5 degrees to be comfortable. I don't really care about the boiling point or freezing point of water in my day to day life.

I am quite interested in knowing if it is going to rain or snow, if there might be ice on the road, if my hot tub might freeze if it is not turned on, etc.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

metric system is so much easier: m³

I don’t think you can have a 1m^3 of wood. Life is not Minecraft.

In forestry road use agreements payments are made based on m^3 of wood hauled in the format of logs

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#107
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And money was being printed left and right

How does that end up in the hands of regular people doing renovation or home builds?

I'm sure some of it is down to LLCs owned in their names that took out PPP loans from which contractors building a home office were paid out.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does that end up in the hands of regular people doing renovation or home builds?

I'm sure some of it is down to LLCs owned in their names that took out PPP loans from which contractors building a home office were paid out.

What fraction do you expect that was? Even just giving a completely unfounded guess.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure some of it is down to LLCs owned in their names that took out PPP loans from which contractors building a home office were paid out.

What fraction do you expect that was? Even just giving a completely unfounded guess.

The useful question isn't that fraction, though I'd bet it's larger than you'd expect, but how much free money was injected into the economy this way. I'm sure that's a consequential sum, especially if you expand the money we're looking at to include corporations paying other corporations inflated rates, coordinated by having execs/board members in common.

Re: Lumber prices down 11% YoY

#110
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love the tradingeconomics site for tracking commodities prices. Indeed, lumber is at pre-pandemic prices from 5 years ago https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

Cripes what is going on with orange juice.. there’s some seasonal patterns in the last 25 years, but the last year has just kept climbing.

Welcome to climate change: Citrus trees take a while to bear fruit, so uncommon weather patterns lead to bad harvests.

Something similar happens with Spanish olives, and with them, olive oil. Most Olive groves are not irrigated, because they historically don't need to be, and we've had two very dry years. Production is down to 50% of what it was, and irrigating isn't cheap or easy. And again, replanting isn't a sensible choice, as the trees don't mature in a season. We can plant different kinds of corn and wheat in different places as weather changes: A winter that is a little too short, and too long, and big ag will sell you a different bag to adapt to your updated planting date with minimal yield losses. But not with trees.

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