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Fine, I'll run a regression analysis but it won't make you happy

natesilver.net

131–140 of 341 posts

Re: Fine, I'll run a regression analysis but it won't make you happy

#131
It was a hard thing to broach at the time without people frothing at the mouth about how I must be anti vaccine or something:

Has there been any attempt to calculate the cost-benefit of all the various measures and how extreme we should go with them?

I’m guessing it’s hard to quantify and compare. A lot of things like general depression, isolation, kids missing half a year of school, etc. can’t really be evaluated against people dying. And on its surface it seems obvious: uh, people dying is much worse than any of those things.

But if I said that everything we did was to save one life, people probably would generally agree it wasn’t worth it (obviously so: people don’t seem too interested in preventing all kinds of deaths at all costs). What about ten lives? One thousand? Ten thousand? There’s some subjective level where it starts to feel obvious to more and more of us, until a majority of us agree.

But do we have any general sense what that number is? How do we decide how much to care? It might seem ghoulish to decide how many dollars is worth a life, but we do it every day.

With the data we have now, I imagine we can somewhat quantify this given enough sample jurisdictions with different rules? “Masking saves x lives per 1000.” “Closing schools saves y lives per 1000” etc. And perhaps then we’re able to decide “is x lives worth the qualitative harm done?” Probably. “What about y?” Maybe not.

Re: Fine, I'll run a regression analysis but it won't make you happy

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typical narcissist. I'll always think of Nate Silver as the bedraggled man with a mid-range stare on election night 2016. Silver's utility is limited to knowing what the establishment talking points are.

Considering the incredibly close vote margins that carried 2016, Nate had one of the most accurate models of interpreting poll data available.

Or he got lucky, as next time he wasn’t even close in his predictions

Re: Fine, I'll run a regression analysis but it won't make you happy

#133
post #25

I really don't trust any of the numbers on covid. A vaccine for a dangerous illness that can affect billions of people is a very big payday. There's lots of money to spread around to politicians, corrupt scientists, and corrupt media. I'd like to see a real scientific debate with adversarial inquiry so we could know if numbers are being fudged and which ones they are. I trust science, but not greed driven capitalists…

Occam's Razer man. Covid is super infectious, so it infected everyone. This is not that complicated.

Re: Fine, I'll run a regression analysis but it won't make you happy

#134
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have been approved by the national health agencies of dozens of countries, and China has approved a very similar home grown mRNA Covid vaccine. No amount of money in the world could pay to do that and keep it secret.

I don't know about the order/process elsewhere, by the time they were up for the approval process in the US there really wasn't another option simply because of the outcry after so many people had taken it, if it wasn't approved.

As a counterpoint to that, 20 million people took the Johnson and Johnson vaccine under the emergency authorization, but the FDA didn’t approve it.

Also buying the emergency approval process in the first place would have required an epically massive conspiracy.

Re: Fine, I'll run a regression analysis but it won't make you happy

#135

It was a hard thing to broach at the time without people frothing at the mouth about how I must be anti vaccine or something: Has there been any attempt to calculate the cost-benefit of all the various measures and how extreme we should go with them? I’m guessing it’s hard to quantify and compare. A lot of things like general depression, isolation, kids missing half a year of school, etc. can’t really be evaluated ag…

It doesn't matter. You can't have these conversations without being censored anymore.

My works HR department got sick of having people use "logic" and "evidence" to argue against their policies. After kicking a few people out the door and generally saying you can't talk about this at work anymore, nobody talks about it.

Re: Fine, I'll run a regression analysis but it won't make you happy

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’ve never heard someone use the word arbitrary to mean anything other than “a random choice”, or even “a poorly thought-out choice”. That's shocking, I use it to mean "the result of a judgement or decision" about a dozen times a day, such as "it's not random, it's arbitrary". I had no clue people had an alternative definition for it. I'm even more surprised that otherwise ostensibly-educated people have no clue ab…

Can you find any recent dictionary with your definition, or modern printed example of the word used in this way? Etymonline cites a 1640s dictionary with the present-day definition: https://www.etymonline.com/word/arbitrary

> Can you find any recent dictionary with your definition, or modern printed example of the word used in this way?

sure, https://www.wordnik.com/words/arbitrary: "Based on or subject to individual judgment or preference." is the second definition on the page. You clearly didn't even bother googling.

Regardless, I'd argue that arbitrary as distinct from "random" only has one definition—the one where judgement, choice, or preference is exercised. This is the useful way to use the word, hence my shock. Especially in a technical context where the connotation of petty abuse of judgement makes no sense.

Finally, there are cases where it's indistinguishable from arbitrary. For instance, if you're defining a pure computation on some integer, the distinction between arbitrary and random is meaningless.

Throwing the word away (as I interpret your sentiment to argue for) seems like the worst possible interpretation and just as likely to lead to confusion.

Re: Fine, I'll run a regression analysis but it won't make you happy

#137

It was a hard thing to broach at the time without people frothing at the mouth about how I must be anti vaccine or something: Has there been any attempt to calculate the cost-benefit of all the various measures and how extreme we should go with them? I’m guessing it’s hard to quantify and compare. A lot of things like general depression, isolation, kids missing half a year of school, etc. can’t really be evaluated ag…

Yes, there are papers attempting that, such as this recent one, which looked at whether shelter in place policies reduced overall excess mortality: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/hec.4737 .

"Using an event study approach and data from 43 countries and all U.S. states, we measure changes in excess deaths following the implementation of COVID-19 shelter-in-place (SIP) policies. We do not find that countries or U.S. states that implemented SIP policies earlier had lower excess deaths. We do not observe differences in excess deaths before and after the implementation of SIP policies, even when accounting for pre-SIP COVID-19 death rates."

Re: Fine, I'll run a regression analysis but it won't make you happy

#138
post #126

I don't know about other countries but in Austria nurses were highly incentivized to report deaths immediately following a vaccination or weeks after an infection has passed as a covid death in the sense of national statistics. I would not be surprised if this "nudging" of on the ground reports over the course of the pandemic has rendered the data around covid deaths unreliable.

Overall death rates shouldn’t be affected by this. Were they?

Re: Fine, I'll run a regression analysis but it won't make you happy

#139

It was a hard thing to broach at the time without people frothing at the mouth about how I must be anti vaccine or something: Has there been any attempt to calculate the cost-benefit of all the various measures and how extreme we should go with them? I’m guessing it’s hard to quantify and compare. A lot of things like general depression, isolation, kids missing half a year of school, etc. can’t really be evaluated ag…

It doesn't matter. You can't have these conversations without being censored anymore. My works HR department got sick of having people use "logic" and "evidence" to argue against their policies. After kicking a few people out the door and generally saying you can't talk about this at work anymore, nobody talks about it.

Thats the company’s choice to make. A workplace isn’t exactly meant to be a town square.

Luckily my workplace was mature enough to decide to leave those topics for the pub and social media so we didn’t have to be told that.

Re: Fine, I'll run a regression analysis but it won't make you happy

#140
post #2

This is all fine, but the focus on deaths is sort of missing the larger societal problem. The COVID devastation is also about long COVID, and even people who had COVID but either recovered “fully” or never displayed symptoms. None of this is over, and we are so, so fucked. edit: Which is to say: The Great Barrington Declaration was wrong directionally as well. We really needed to optimize to eliminate COVID as much a…

These numbers vindicate the GBD - the change here isn't big enough to justify the society-level responses, coercion or mass human rights violations. We're seeing that the vaccine didn't even bring COVID down to sub-exponential growth. If a 3% risk of death in West Virginia justifies parking up society then a 1% risk of death in Vermont would. Neither does.

If the outcome lands on people who choose to take risks, there is no need for the police to step in.

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