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Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu arrested in Singapore airport

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Re: Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu arrested in Singapore airport

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> some from people who operate outside of the law... also from people who lack access to good banking and payments infrastructure What do you suppose that ratio to be in terms of e.g. transaction volume? Personally I think it's >90 : <10 (scams : sympathetic). Others seem to think the balance is very different, or that it _could_ be different some day and that alone is a reason to "leave it alone".

I personally don’t have an opinion on the ratio, but there are many reports estimating that the illicit to legal ratio is much lower than you suspect. Either way I actually don’t care that much, I think access to the financial system is a human right, and not one that governments or US corporates should be able to arbitrarily remove. Crypto is the only thing we have that is remotely close to preserving the rights tha…

> preserving the rights that we have with cash in the digital realm

I think it goes quite a bit beyond that, or rather, the digital and physical realm are not mere 1:1 mirror images of each other.

For example in the physical realm it is really difficult to move millions of dollars of cash from one place to another particularly across prominent geographic or national boundaries (oceans, mountains, countries); the difficulty scales with the amount. Do people have this "right"? Sure, I guess, but in practice and as history has shown us, they've never been able to exercise it.

It's more or less trivial to move huge sums with crypto.

Re: Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu arrested in Singapore airport

#102
post #14
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I work in this area and to me, the tech is still super interesting. In particular, things like zero knowledge proof and related scaling/privacy solutions are at the forefront of cryptography in my opinion.

We just need to find some non-speculative and non-scammy uses for that tech.

Drugs usually aren't a scam.

Re: Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu arrested in Singapore airport

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally don’t have an opinion on the ratio, but there are many reports estimating that the illicit to legal ratio is much lower than you suspect. Either way I actually don’t care that much, I think access to the financial system is a human right, and not one that governments or US corporates should be able to arbitrarily remove. Crypto is the only thing we have that is remotely close to preserving the rights tha…

> preserving the rights that we have with cash in the digital realm I think it goes quite a bit beyond that, or rather, the digital and physical realm are not mere 1:1 mirror images of each other. For example in the physical realm it is really difficult to move millions of dollars of cash from one place to another particularly across prominent geographic or national boundaries (oceans, mountains, countries); the diff…

Certainly they are not 1-1 the same. Cash has better privacy properties, crypto lets you move large sums more easily.

In general, when it comes to a monetary technology, I view being able to quickly and easily make transfers as a feature not a bug.

Re: Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu arrested in Singapore airport

#104
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's conjectured that this is due to Bitcoin's subsidy halving schedule, which is every 210000 blocks or ~4 years. The reasoning is that the supply shock trends prices upwards and the rest of the market tracks Bitcoin due to many trading pairs between it and other cryptos. But the shock gets weaker over time and hopefully the nonsense will as well.

It is interesting, because while the shock does get weaker in relative terms it's getting stronger in absolute terms. i.e. a billion dollar shock to a billion dollar asset is relatively bigger than a 100 billion dollar shock to a 500 billion dollar asset (bitcoin's current "market cap"), but the latter requires 100x the size of wealth flow. The next supply shock will also be interesting in its own right, specifically…

This is great analysis. The only caveat I would add is that while bitcoin is commonly priced in $ (fiat USD) it is much more commonly bought and sold in USDT. In fact, if a bunch of actors decided to sell bitcoin there might be plenty of USDT for that but not US$.

Some of that is due to the fact that exchanges don't due proper KYC and have trouble maintaining US banking arrangements. Some of it may be that the market is propped up by less fiat then it would need to be liquid in fiat.

I am not saying that as a problem-- maybe-- I don't know. I am just saying that as if you say bitcoin currently requires $9b usd a year to maintain its price that is not actually true.

Re: Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu arrested in Singapore airport

#105
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm ready to spend it all to not go to prison You said you were ready > give a significant percent of my assets just to defend myself So why not? Or get a cheaper lawyer yourself that's more fair to the other side. There's a lot of rich people out there who get away with some really bad crimes just because they have really clever private attorneys.

> So why not? Or get a cheaper lawyer yourself that's more fair to the other side. Because that is money I could and should be able to use to defend myself. And should my defense be successful that's my retirement money and financial security. I don't care about fair for the government, they accused me of something I didn't do. There is a 0% chance that a states attorneys salary will get me a private attorney of the…

> There is a 0% chance that a states attorneys salary will get me a private attorney of the same caliber.

But does the other side get the resources to have an attorney of the same caliber? If not, it's not a fair trial, and that's not how a justice system should work.

In your system, the rich will always have better lawyers, and will get away with crimes, and that's precisely what I'm trying to say we need to change. The rich should NOT have better lawyers just because they're rich. They can have better houses, better cars, better vacations, and better Michelin food, but no, they should not have better lawyers than everyone else.

Re: Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu arrested in Singapore airport

#106
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So why not? Or get a cheaper lawyer yourself that's more fair to the other side. Because that is money I could and should be able to use to defend myself. And should my defense be successful that's my retirement money and financial security. I don't care about fair for the government, they accused me of something I didn't do. There is a 0% chance that a states attorneys salary will get me a private attorney of the…

> There is a 0% chance that a states attorneys salary will get me a private attorney of the same caliber. But does the other side get the resources to have an attorney of the same caliber? If not, it's not a fair trial, and that's not how a justice system should work. In your system, the rich will always have better lawyers, and will get away with crimes, and that's precisely what I'm trying to say we need to change.…

> But does the other side get the resources to have an attorney of the same caliber? If not, it's not a fair trial, and that's not how a justice system should work.

I don't consider the sides equal coming in. The state is the accuser, with an exclusive right to file charges and they can do full investigations. They have taxpayer funding so they are far richer than all but the very richest people they go after. They also make the extremely complex system of laws that only experienced professionals can navigate. The deck is already stacked extremely in their favor in almost every way. I don't get your obsession with making sure the accused person has their money taken to level anything that might be in their favor.

> In your system, the rich will always have better lawyers, and will get away with crimes, and that's precisely what I'm trying to say we need to change. The rich should NOT have better lawyers just because they're rich. They can have better houses, better cars, better vacations, and better Michelin food, but no, they should not have better lawyers than everyone else.

I'm not disputing that the poor do get shafted in the current system and the rich are at an advantage. The fact that you want a better justice system doesn't make the idea you proposed any less insane.

Re: Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu arrested in Singapore airport

#107
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the moment, you can buy drugs with it online. Don't know if that will last, though.

Can you still!? It's so incredibly traceable these days and every iteration of Silk Road gets busted, no?

Dark web markets absolutely still exist. The traceability problem is at least partially solved using mixers. I don't know everything there is to know here, like how easy it is to get back fiat.

Re: Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu arrested in Singapore airport

#108
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

History of economics disagrees with the last -- hopeful I will assume -- statement. The world was and is full of scammers and fraudsters. Also respectfully I am not sure I get the zero interest rates arguments. There seems to be a subgroup of HN community that believes low interest rates (below some arbitrary threshold?) to be immoral. Maybe there is a Crime, scams and ponzi schemes correlation study over hundreds of…

Zero interest rates will most likely return one day, but crypto will be heavily regulated by then. That’s what I meant — the combo isn’t coming back where crypto is an unregulated sink for ZIRP speculation money.

Thank you for the clarification follow-up.

Re: Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu arrested in Singapore airport

#109
post #11

This just reminded me that cryptocurrencies is a thing, this has not been a prominent topic here for some time, I would say. Is the entire cryptocurrencies stuff eventually on the way out or would that be a misperception? Just checked Google trends, that also indicates a downward trend for terms like Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, NFT or Ethereum for the last year or two.

Just getting started with cryptocurrency I would say. Bitcoin Spot ETFs decisions being delayed by SEC, Ether Futures ETFs were just approved by SEC. Crypto will likely be part of our everyday lives eventually, we just won’t know it.

Re: Three Arrows Capital co-founder Zhu arrested in Singapore airport

#110
post #96
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every claim in your comment is factually false.

Bitcoin did factually fail at its stated goal, as laid out in the original whitepaper. Bitcoin has not succeeded at being a peer-to-peer currency, because the "peer-to-peer" part went out the window when users stopped hosting their own nodes, and the currency part was abandoned when people realized that transaction throughput is fatally low.

Well, more like it’s no longer p2p after the 2017 hard fork and people are being pushed to use Lightning which centralizes over time through hub and spoke model, and many people prefer to use custodial wallets.
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