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Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

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Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#391

Post by tim333 »

japanuspus wrote: post #278
cf141q5325 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its not just a belief. The ratio is something in the region of 100x. Its also not just a precious metal thing, most markets function that way due to long and short positions. The paper market is always quite a lot larger then the actual one.

[[citation needed]]

When people say things like that what they usually mean is the volume of bets on the price of gold in the futures markets is much larger than the trading in either physical gold or ETFs representing physical gold.

Which doesn't mean ETFs like GLD are not real. It just means that if I say I'll bet you the price goes up, we settle the bet at $100 for each dollar the price moves, that is independent of us actually owning any gold.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#392

Post by eli_gottlieb »

idiotsecant wrote: post #268
altacc wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I notice this when travelling the world and it's one of the main reasons I think the many of the arguments for cryptocurrency are flawed. I've used decades old dollar bills in SE Asia that have been pretty much detached from the US economy for decades and have held value better than bitcoin ever has. The value of the dollar is linked not just to the US economy but also a global black economy and that has some unoffic…

This will be true right up until the point it is not. The US dollar dominance is not a feature of the universe, it's a social agreement that, like any such agreement, will eventually come undone.

Well yeah, but of course it's kinda hard to just go ask the people who make monetary policy for the global black-market economy, since they wouldn't want to admit to any of it.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#393

Post by cf141q5325 »

tim333 wrote: post #391
japanuspus wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[[citation needed]]

When people say things like that what they usually mean is the volume of bets on the price of gold in the futures markets is much larger than the trading in either physical gold or ETFs representing physical gold. Which doesn't mean ETFs like GLD are not real. It just means that if I say I'll bet you the price goes up, we settle the bet at $100 for each dollar the price moves, that is independent of us actually ownin…

>Which doesn't mean ETFs like GLD are not real. It just means that if I say I'll bet you the price goes up, we settle the bet at $100 for each dollar the price moves, that is independent of us actually owning any gold.

Whats your definition of real if it doesnt involve physical gold? An ISIN existing? Sorry if that sounds passive aggressive, i cant figure out how else to word it.

There seems to be another definition of paper gold i am missing? I always assumed it was clear we are talking about derivatives.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#394

Post by chiefalchemist »

noduerme wrote: post #346
chiefalchemist wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But they don't actually need to be price-fixing with each other in a classical way. Spot on. There doesn't have to be a conspiracy. Like entities with like goals and finite ways to maximize will follow similar or like paths. The example I like to use are starlings (birds) and murmurations. Obviously, the birds aren't conspiring in any way. And yet they magically move in sync. Business competitors can do the same. S…

Thank you for reading what I was actually saying. Yes; flocking behavior is sufficient to explain how two or three supposed competitors can simulate a free market while profiting from monopolistic behavior. And it's also a fantastically nifty adaptation to allow any one entity to skirt the legislative hammer.

Cronie Capitalism does help as well. When the gov puts it thumb on the scale and clears a clear-enough path, only a fool wouldn't follow the path of least resistance.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#395

Post by marcosdumay »

noduerme wrote: post #304
pjc50 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Argentina has 100% annual inflation and going up while the US has less than 10% and going down. The USD is not going anywhere spectacular, because there is no more stable country to flee to. The one thing that can reliably trigger inflation in almost any country is oil/gas shortages on the global market, and you can't hedge that with precious metals nor store a 20 year supply in your house.

>> the US has less than 10% and going down First of all, there's no evidence it's going down. Secondly, 10% is a wild figure. That's far over the breach for the population to begin to alter their behaviour by either hoarding or spending. My point was, the mentality of coping with even 10% inflation is very foreign to Americans. But it's a learned skill, and people will learn it. When they do, it will resemble Argenti…

Yes, it's a wild figure for the US (as a comparison, the US had an year with higher inflation than Brazil). But that lasted for a short period, and it's been measured going down.

Anyway, hoarding gold is not a natural behavior for a population at 10% inflation. It's natural for a population that distrusts the government and the financial markets. Inflation by itself pushes people into banks.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#396

Post by marcosdumay »

noduerme wrote: post #316
mlinhares wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comparing the US with Argentina is wild. Americans are buying gold because there's a lot of propaganda about how the country is going to hell, the economy is fucked and there's plenty of marks out there that fall for this, while unemployment is historically low and the mcdonalds close to me is offering 17 an hour for line workers. There's been a huge increase in ads about "buying hold to protect yourself" instead of…

This isn't some fear grift, just so you know. I lived in Argentina for many years, my family is from there, and I've been saying for awhile that America is on the brink of making the same mistakes that Argentina makes that lead to cycles of hyperinflation, default, and instability. It's clear that it's "wild" in the sense that everyone in the world pegs their economy to USD, and as long as you expect that to continue…

Brazilian here, I've also experienced the hyperinflation at the 80's and 90's.

The US has recently been moving on the exact opposite direction from hyperinflation. At least on the short term, they don't have exploding debits, they are removing money from the economy, and have a concerned monetary regulator.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#397

Post by dukeyukey »

ToucanLoucan wrote: post #319
idiotsecant wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This will be true right up until the point it is not. The US dollar dominance is not a feature of the universe, it's a social agreement that, like any such agreement, will eventually come undone.

Not to sound hyperbolic but I feel once the US Dollar crashes entirely to the degree that it no longer serves as a "default currency" of sorts, that society will have broken down far enough that even the gold will be relatively worthless and the predominant goods of choice will be cans of dog food and beans.

It's possible another power will peacefully take that place, kinda like how the US Dollar usurped the British Pound without a war between those countries.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#398

Post by [deleted] »

ArtTimeInvestor wrote: post #46
e63f67dd-065b wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can see it happening right now in Argentina: the local currency is worthless, and people are flocking to ... US Dollars. Not gold, not bitcoins, but good old benjamins. So gold isn't even a good inflation hedge: if you walked the streets of a failing economy (pick one: Argentina, Venezuela, Sri Lanka, there's plenty more) and tried to exchange gold for goods, you're not gonna get far (and will probably get mugged…

Why do you think that people in Argentina are flocking to Dollar and not to Bitcoin or Gold? When I look at the search trends in Argentina, I see Bitcoin in a very volatile longterm uptrend, Gold in a longterm downtrend and the Dollar being constantly a distant third: https://trends.google.de/trends/explore?date=all&geo=AR&q=go... Over the 20 years which the Peso has been devaluing, Bitcoin has outpaced the others by…

[deleted]

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#399

Post by marcosdumay »

cf141q5325 wrote: post #141
wodenokoto wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have some friends who are into owning gold. Their rule of thumb is: You can own gold mines on paper, but gold, only in hand. There is a belief that there exists a lot more paper gold than actual gold. So when the run on the reserves starts, the price of gold will explode as billions of dollars worth of gold in the market disappears. Although I’m not sure if Costco buyers are thinking like that.

Its not just a belief. The ratio is something in the region of 100x. Its also not just a precious metal thing, most markets function that way due to long and short positions. The paper market is always quite a lot larger then the actual one.

> due to long and short positions

Those cancel each other. The important number is how it compares to the net amount. I don't think anybody does fractional reserves of commodities.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#400

Post by takinola »

noduerme wrote: post #111
e63f67dd-065b wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can see it happening right now in Argentina: the local currency is worthless, and people are flocking to ... US Dollars. Not gold, not bitcoins, but good old benjamins. So gold isn't even a good inflation hedge: if you walked the streets of a failing economy (pick one: Argentina, Venezuela, Sri Lanka, there's plenty more) and tried to exchange gold for goods, you're not gonna get far (and will probably get mugged…

Not exactly. I just sent this link to my (Argentine) friends with a different observation. My observation was: The United States is starting to look like Argentina. You must understand: Most Americans are not accustomed to shoving a third party currency under their mattress, or buying physical gold. The phenomenon of hyperinflation is foreign to them, and there's a steep learning curve. The actual significance of thi…

> If I had an hour, I'd like to expound on the significance of Americans buying precious metal at a loss through a giant vertical monopoly.

The only thing Costco has a monopoly on is $1.50 hotdogs. Also, inflation in the US has dropped by more than half in the last year. I think this is the opposite of countries like Argentina.

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