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Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

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Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This will be true right up until the point it is not. The US dollar dominance is not a feature of the universe, it's a social agreement that, like any such agreement, will eventually come undone.

Not to sound hyperbolic but I feel once the US Dollar crashes entirely to the degree that it no longer serves as a "default currency" of sorts, that society will have broken down far enough that even the gold will be relatively worthless and the predominant goods of choice will be cans of dog food and beans.

For a year you will be correct. However after a year what is left will start to rebuild, and gold works better than beans (remember the cans are all eaten by now - we are talking beans someone actually grew). The problem with beans is they spoil (even carefully stored): eventually someone says "I have all the beans I need now, but I still want to sell my shoes". Using something like gold as an agreed medium of exchanges means the bean grower and shoe maker can make an exchange without trying to put together a complex trade involving a dozen people just to get enough of various goods to satisfy the show maker. Instead the shoemaker can get some gold and then buy everything as an individual transaction - and the people he buys from can in turn go to the bean grower if they want beans.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#342
post #15
post #8

I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. Investment gold is usually kept in vault, and you trade ownership arms length. Direct gold ownership is rife with risks: fineness, substitutions and overpriced purchase. Yes, you can always sell at a mall gold trader but that's way way off market price. So it's an inflation hedge with a lot of cost and risk and d…

Physical gold might have value in situation where financial institutions and markets start to lose any trust in themselves. Either by manipulation, government confiscation or fraud. But, things will be pretty bad at that point from every viewpoint. As essentially global markets are crashing. On other hand, in even bigger crisis gold won't be that valuable at least for a while. If food and fuel are first priority peop…

Yes, I don't understand why people think that gold has some sort of intrinsic value.

It only has value because we collectively agree it's valuable. But in itself it's not super useful, yes there are some industrial applications where it's better than other metals but if it was only valued on this basis it would be worth much, much less.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comparing the US with Argentina is wild. Americans are buying gold because there's a lot of propaganda about how the country is going to hell, the economy is fucked and there's plenty of marks out there that fall for this, while unemployment is historically low and the mcdonalds close to me is offering 17 an hour for line workers. There's been a huge increase in ads about "buying hold to protect yourself" instead of…

This isn't some fear grift, just so you know. I lived in Argentina for many years, my family is from there, and I've been saying for awhile that America is on the brink of making the same mistakes that Argentina makes that lead to cycles of hyperinflation, default, and instability. It's clear that it's "wild" in the sense that everyone in the world pegs their economy to USD, and as long as you expect that to continue…

I’m Brazilian and I lived through our hyperinflation over the 80s and 90s, it’s not the same at all, if it was the economy would already be underground given how much money was printed

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just as with the people who wake up every morning expecting the Second Coming, or indeed a Nuclear War, these folks fixate on a hyperinflationary US economy so much they begin to hallucinate. Everything must be a sign. Strong job figures? Those are a precursor to hyperinflation. More mortgages fail than average? Hyperinflation on the horizon. Trump gets elected? He'll certainly cause hyperinflation. Trump loses? Demo…

HN seems to have a lot of kooks these days, or maybe the kind of people who would push back have just stopped. I've seen a surprising amount of vaccine denialism, xenophobia, unsubstantiated pop Econ takes, Peter Zeihan bullshit, etc. YC should just cut the cord on this forum tbh. It's not about "Hackers" or "News" anymore.

I think you're talking about me, for saying America is starting to remind me of Argentina in certain ways? I assure you I'm not a kook, or a doomsayer. I'm just someone who's lived in both countries through several economic crises, each of which had very different characteristics. Maybe I didn't express myself eloquently enough. You're free to rebut anything I said or to contact me personally. I don't think slandering me by way of slandering the entirety of HN is the exact right way to show you know what you're talking about.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#345
post #8

I'd love to see an economists take on the value to a consumer of holding gold in this form, at the price. Investment gold is usually kept in vault, and you trade ownership arms length. Direct gold ownership is rife with risks: fineness, substitutions and overpriced purchase. Yes, you can always sell at a mall gold trader but that's way way off market price. So it's an inflation hedge with a lot of cost and risk and d…

Laypeople hear professionals talk about how gold is a good investment, but they don't realize that professionals are trading gold ETFs and futures. Ill informed lay people then go buy a gold bar from Costco.

For laypeople there are two reasons to trade gold: to show it off, or in event of society collapse. Both of them require you to have the physical gold in your possession. Professionals can trade gold futures and make money, but that is a very different type of investment that laypeople generally should stay out of because of how complex it is.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Costco's not a monopoly by the current definition, but they do occupy a very cozy spot between wholesale and retail, and they do vertically control everything Kirkland from mayonnaise to roast chicken. We have a strange situation right now, in the US, in which any company with at least one major competitor is considered good for the free market; and it takes a hell of a lot of work to show that those two competitors…

> But they don't actually need to be price-fixing with each other in a classical way. Spot on. There doesn't have to be a conspiracy. Like entities with like goals and finite ways to maximize will follow similar or like paths. The example I like to use are starlings (birds) and murmurations. Obviously, the birds aren't conspiring in any way. And yet they magically move in sync. Business competitors can do the same. S…

Thank you for reading what I was actually saying.

Yes; flocking behavior is sufficient to explain how two or three supposed competitors can simulate a free market while profiting from monopolistic behavior. And it's also a fantastically nifty adaptation to allow any one entity to skirt the legislative hammer.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#347
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d guess threat model is less “there is a zombie apocalypse” and more “you need to flee to another country”.

But then you need cold coins, not a gold bar. Or, multiple foreign currencies.

Bars can be traded for coins. There are not many who can do that, but you can find them anywhere if you look. You won't always get a great deal, but I'm confident that you can find someone who buy your gold bars for cash most places in the world.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#348
post #175
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a 'feature' 49 coins @ $200 each is less than $10,000 in legal tender and doesn't have to be declared as a cash transaction or carry on cash. Also handy for reducing transfer taxes on house purchases - you can have a higly qualified QC (fancy lawyer) swear affidavits that they witnessed the purchase of a house for an absurdly low amount and therefore the required tax is correct despite being so low.

I don't think I'll be retaining you as my tax advisor.

As a point of law it comes down to jurisdiction and whether the gold loophole has been closed.

If a seller offers a house for $6,000,000 and an offer is made to pay $200,000 in legal tender of that country .. and the seller accepts ... what is the sales tax?

Is it calculated from the $200,000 in legal tender which was witnesed by officers of the highest standing, or is it calculated from the metal value of the coins ($6 million)?

You really don't want a tax advisor on this, you want an authoritive legal opinion.

It is a loophole that has been exploited in various countries at various times - but you'd want to be sure of current laws if you're tempted to go that route.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#349
post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN seems to have a lot of kooks these days, or maybe the kind of people who would push back have just stopped. I've seen a surprising amount of vaccine denialism, xenophobia, unsubstantiated pop Econ takes, Peter Zeihan bullshit, etc. YC should just cut the cord on this forum tbh. It's not about "Hackers" or "News" anymore.

> YC should just cut the cord on this forum tbh. It's not about "Hackers" or "News" anymore. It's a marketing tool for them, always was. Probably fairly cheap to run, too.

It was PG's pet project. Plenty of YC startups don't use HN anymore aside from their 1 Demo post and on the outside it looks like Bookface and other initiatives are given more headcount than HN within the entire YC organization.

Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours

#350
post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Costco's not a monopoly by the current definition, but they do occupy a very cozy spot between wholesale and retail, and they do vertically control everything Kirkland from mayonnaise to roast chicken. We have a strange situation right now, in the US, in which any company with at least one major competitor is considered good for the free market; and it takes a hell of a lot of work to show that those two competitors…

> We have a strange situation right now, in the US, in which any company with at least one major competitor is considered good for the free market; (...) Wasn't Amazon just sued by the FTC due to anticompetitive practices?

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