Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you had bought something productive like the S&P500 50 years ago, would have outperformed gold easily. No-one wants to long-term just store value unproductively (which is also bad from a macro perspective).
> If you had bought something productive like the S&P500 50 years ago, would have outperformed gold That's correct. Almost everything beats the US dollar (except other fiat currencies).
Costco gold bars are selling out within hours
311–320 of 515 posts
Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours
#312Over 100 years of the value being propped up by a social narrative alone. Boggles the mind. Reminds me of no-vote no-dividend stocks.
Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours
#313Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I have no faith in "yes the law has technical pathological cases but obviously nobody would do that". I used to, but I've just seen enough cases of the letter of the law being twisted with complete disregard to the spirit. E.g. practically any law to do with terrorism I actually count this as the primary positive outcome of COVID. So many people woke up to the reality of state power during that period. No more "thi…
You somehow missed the cold war, the draft, ... Societies have a lot of power and at times use it; and such use might not be wrong. People believing those things don't exist were just ignoring history. If you want to check out of society that will need quite a bit of doing.
What a bizarre non-sequitur.
Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours
#314Earlier quoted context omitted.
You somehow missed the cold war, the draft, ... Societies have a lot of power and at times use it; and such use might not be wrong. People believing those things don't exist were just ignoring history. If you want to check out of society that will need quite a bit of doing.
I did not miss the cold war (I was born under communism), I do believe that societies exist and have power, and I do not want to check out of society. What a bizarre non-sequitur.
But why then complain when societies act? Having strong reactions to pandemics is historically normal nor can I see anything to wake up to in terms of oppression.
Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours
#315Earlier quoted context omitted.
HN seems to have a lot of kooks these days, or maybe the kind of people who would push back have just stopped. I've seen a surprising amount of vaccine denialism, xenophobia, unsubstantiated pop Econ takes, Peter Zeihan bullshit, etc. YC should just cut the cord on this forum tbh. It's not about "Hackers" or "News" anymore.
Segments of HN have been predicting the imminent collapse of the US dollar for at least the last decade. One thing 10-years-ago HN had but today doesn’t is the constant predictions of the imminent collapse of the VC startup model in general, or maybe I’m just looking in the wrong threads these days. That said, you may be correct in that the voices have gotten louder. Also, the Covid conspiracy stuff drives me up the…
Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours
#316Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not exactly. I just sent this link to my (Argentine) friends with a different observation. My observation was: The United States is starting to look like Argentina. You must understand: Most Americans are not accustomed to shoving a third party currency under their mattress, or buying physical gold. The phenomenon of hyperinflation is foreign to them, and there's a steep learning curve. The actual significance of thi…
Comparing the US with Argentina is wild. Americans are buying gold because there's a lot of propaganda about how the country is going to hell, the economy is fucked and there's plenty of marks out there that fall for this, while unemployment is historically low and the mcdonalds close to me is offering 17 an hour for line workers. There's been a huge increase in ads about "buying hold to protect yourself" instead of…
It's clear that it's "wild" in the sense that everyone in the world pegs their economy to USD, and as long as you expect that to continue you have nothing to worry about. Fundamentally, though, in its divided politics and its willingness to oscillate between propping up the economy and going hog-wild with privatization, the US is the same as Argentina and has been for a long time. The only difference is the ability to project military power and enforce the value of its currency through bribery and fear; Argentina doesn't have that ability. (Nor would we think it would be great for the free market if she did).
Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours
#317Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If I had an hour, I'd like to expound on the significance of Americans buying precious metal at a loss through a giant vertical monopoly. Costco occasionally sells gold below spot if Reddit is to be believed. Most of the time it's right around spot. These 1oz bars were going for $1900 give or take, which is spot give or take. It's fairly common to see a small ~$50 ish premium on small quantities like this, around 2…
Costco's not a monopoly by the current definition, but they do occupy a very cozy spot between wholesale and retail, and they do vertically control everything Kirkland from mayonnaise to roast chicken. We have a strange situation right now, in the US, in which any company with at least one major competitor is considered good for the free market; and it takes a hell of a lot of work to show that those two competitors…
Spot on. There doesn't have to be a conspiracy. Like entities with like goals and finite ways to maximize will follow similar or like paths.
The example I like to use are starlings (birds) and murmurations. Obviously, the birds aren't conspiring in any way. And yet they magically move in sync. Business competitors can do the same. So do political parties.
It's not a conspiracy. It's murmuration.
p.s. There's actually a more scientific term. I think it's in the math theory field about the study of such patterns. Starlings are simply the goto example.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uV54oa0SyMc&pp=ygUVc3Rhcmxpbmd...
Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours
#318Earlier quoted context omitted.
I like that Perth Mint considers "Australian legal tender" a feature of a $6,000 coin
The British mint explains that this makes their bullion coins exempt from capital gains tax: https://www.royalmint.com/invest/bullion/uk-coin-ranges/sove... There are probably similar rules in other countries.
Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours
#319Earlier quoted context omitted.
I notice this when travelling the world and it's one of the main reasons I think the many of the arguments for cryptocurrency are flawed. I've used decades old dollar bills in SE Asia that have been pretty much detached from the US economy for decades and have held value better than bitcoin ever has. The value of the dollar is linked not just to the US economy but also a global black economy and that has some unoffic…
This will be true right up until the point it is not. The US dollar dominance is not a feature of the universe, it's a social agreement that, like any such agreement, will eventually come undone.
Re: Costco gold bars are selling out within hours
#320Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’ve lived in two dozen countries and the US is the most community oriented of them all outside major cities. US charitable giving alone suggests your view of the country as individualism run amok is likely not the whole story.
The biggest share of US charitable giving goes to megachurches and other religious institutions who don't need it. A fair amount of the rest goes on political lobbying and influencing. The proportion that goes on direct no-strings plain simple humanitarian work is not all that huge. Most of the US population lives in cities. If the US wasn't "individualism run amok" it wouldn't have tent cities of homeless people, an…
And I don't think it's totally fair to exclude religious donations as somehow "not valid", especially in the context of the critique that Americans don't value community with each other. Religious charities tend have less access to alternative funding sources, so rely on these donations more. Note: I'm very much not religious.
> A fair amount of the rest goes on political lobbying and influencing.
I get a little mixed-up on whether donations to non-tax-deductible non-profits "count" in the metrics (e.g., does my donation to the ACLU which has a lobbying arm count just as my donation to the ACLU Foundation which cannot be used that way?). Nevertheless, I think it's wrong-minded to discredit charitable giving to organizations that influence public policy given the multiplicative impact that policy has on the lives of people and communities. Some of the biggest impacts to the lives of people came out of organized efforts to influence policy.
> If the US wasn't "individualism run amok" it wouldn't have tent cities of homeless people, and its health industry wouldn't be bankrupting half a million people a year.
This feels like a pretty uncharitable and over-simplification of very complex issues that also get into inter-state dynamics. I also think there's an error made in treating US culture as some sort of homogenous cultural construct. More than many other countries, the US is constantly at war with itself culturally.