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The Man Who Broke Atlantic City

theatlantic.com

91–93 of 93 posts

Re: The Man Who Broke Atlantic City

#91
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but it appears that while he doesn't "count", He plays a more general "averages" game. Per the article: "More useful, for his purposes, is running a smaller number of hands and paying attention to variation. The way averages work, the larger the sample, the narrower the range of variation. " Edit: I would guess he's developed some algorithm for keeping track of swings and general variation, so he plays not h…

What struck me as very odd was the description of the 800k play: He had two tens and two elevens, and decided to stand. That makes no sense to me, as he would have lost nothing by getting four more cards. Also, the article made some reference to variation, without explaining the edge. I'm guessing there was a real point lost there.

When you double down, you have to stand, and you can only double down on your first hit. The article makes it seem that he doubled after getting the card, when reality he made that decision before he got the 2's and 3's.

He split his 8's to 4 $100k hands, and then doubled down on each, for 4 $200k hands. He just got really unlucky on each hand, that the point value was so low.

Re: The Man Who Broke Atlantic City

#92
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The shuffles needn't be poor. The existence of the hand-shuffled shoe just means he has the opportunity to count or shuffle track. The former is impossible if they use a continuous shuffle machine and I imagine the latter is either impossible or too difficult to use effectively. I agree it makes no sense for the casino to agree to that if that's outside their normal rules. I guess they want high rollers to think they…

another factor: as an inside guy, he probably knew their precise algorithm for catching counters. I suspect he does count, but knows exactly how to vary his play to keep just south of the model targeting him as a counter.

What are you talking about? A CEO got fired because of this. Anyone and everyone was watching this guy.

Re: The Man Who Broke Atlantic City

#93
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

another factor: as an inside guy, he probably knew their precise algorithm for catching counters. I suspect he does count, but knows exactly how to vary his play to keep just south of the model targeting him as a counter.

What are you talking about? A CEO got fired because of this. Anyone and everyone was watching this guy.

What I'm saying is, they have mathematical models that they follow to decide whether someone is counting. I suspect this guy was in fact using information about cards played to vary his future bets -- in effect counting, but he was doing it in a way that did not fit the house's models for what card counters normally do.

He clearly knew more than the people who were watching him, so the fact that all the 'experts' were paying attention doesn't mean he wasn't following a winning strategy.

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