>Russia have thrown everything they have at Ukraine over the last year-and-a-half.
I don't believe that's the case. Russian military doctrine has always been to reserve the best systems for the end-game, and front 'fodder' in the beginning stages of things.
I see Russia's war theatre manifest also in Syria, where the very same tactics are utilized to suppress the field.
"Shock and Awe" is a US doctrine. Russian is more "Shake and Hold".
"Massively overestimating themselves/underestimating themselves", is very difficult to contextualize, if you don't actually speak Russian.
>The cupboard is empty.
I'm sorry, I really don't agree. You might want to take a deeper look:
https://www.cna.org/reports/2021/10/Russian-Military%20-Stra...
You must, of course, steel yourself for some whiplash. The world is not entirely as it "seems".