This reminds me of the claw machines you see in malls. They look like something you can be good at - place the claw more accurately, choose a toy placed at a cleaner angle - but what they actually do internally is randomly give you a (say) 10% chance, if you hit it you will grab the toy (unless you're REALLY far from one), if not you won't. The illusion is there, but the profit is stable and guaranteed.
I was encouraged recently to find that Mountain Mike's chain pizza restaurants seem to have mini-arcades with emulated retro cabinets from Arcade1Up.