Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Type 2 diabetes rates in US youth rose 62% after Covid pandemic began

cidrap.umn.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

101–110 of 153 posts

Re: Type 2 diabetes rates in US youth rose 62% after Covid pandemic began

#101

Post by lamontcg »

verisimi wrote: post #96
lamontcg wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ...Binding of circulating S protein... Vaccines don't cause circulating S protein at any levels that could cause damage to organs. We can measure some S in the blood after vaccination, but it is at levels of picograms per milliliter. Spike is confined within the cells that the vaccine enters and isn't sprayed around the circulatory system by the vaccine. What is displayed on the surface of those cells is the T-cell…

[flagged]

You should really start by asking the parent comment where they got their information or any papers showing the biological effect of spike on ACE2 receptors after vaccination.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-vaccine-safe-idUSL...

This is the actual scientific article:

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/74/4/715/6279075?login=...

Sorry, after 2.5 years I misremembered pg/mL as fg/mL but its all too small to matter.

Re: Type 2 diabetes rates in US youth rose 62% after Covid pandemic began

#102

Post by throwaway290 »

lamontcg wrote: post #101
verisimi wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

You should really start by asking the parent comment where they got their information or any papers showing the biological effect of spike on ACE2 receptors after vaccination. https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-vaccine-safe-idUSL... This is the actual scientific article: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/74/4/715/6279075?login=... Sorry, after 2.5 years I misremembered pg/mL as fg/mL but its all too small t…

What are your thoughts on https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.061025 (AFAICT, correlation between post-vaccine myocarditis and detectable free spike, possibly due to individual differences in some adolescents causing slower(?) spike clearance)? Credible?

Re: Type 2 diabetes rates in US youth rose 62% after Covid pandemic began

#103

Post by haldujai »

fbdab103 wrote: post #4

>Rates of type 2 diabetes were 62% higher (IRR, 1.62) in 2020 to 2021 than in 2016 to 2019. The incidence of type 2 diabetes rose from 14.8 to 24.7 per 100,000 person-years over that time. That is a huge jump. Is it possible there was more widespread testing of at risk populations? If they are simultaneously reporting no notable changes in average BMI, my knee jerk thought is populations cannot change that quickly.

> Is it possible there was more widespread testing

Yes, they mention two variations of this possibility in the discussion.

> If they are simultaneously reporting no notable changes in average BMI,

Why would you expect average BMI of diabetics to change?

Re: Type 2 diabetes rates in US youth rose 62% after Covid pandemic began

#105

Post by CiteXieAlAlyEtc »

defrost wrote: post #16

Diabetes is complex and a simplistic jump to "Covid directly causes Diabetes" is very likely incorrect. From the article itself: Diabetes risk factors may have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic including limited physical activity, increased sedentary behaviors, sleep disturbances, and increased intake of processed foods. and note that diabetes has increased in very specific groups, not generally at the sa…

To be sort of nitpicky: the underlying study [0] does not argue a direct causal connection. This is one of many current observational studies reporting on population level trends and measuring associated incidence ratios/risk ratios/hazard ratios.

That said, dismissing the COVID correlation entirely out of hand also feels wrong here; in part because there are meta analysis in the literature [1] that show risk ratios very comparable to increases here.

To compare from the quote in the article:

> Rates of type 2 diabetes were 62% higher (IRR, 1.62) in 2020 to 2021 than in 2016 to 2019. The incidence of type 2 diabetes rose from 14.8 to 24.7 per 100,000 person-years over that time.

To this in Ssentongo et al:

> Of the 8 studies that characterized the risk of incident diabetes among survivors of COVID-19, the pooled point estimates was 1.66 (95% CI 1.38; 2.00, Fig. 2), implying a 66% higher risk of diabetes.

covid-19 is a complex disease that is correlated to problems with almost every major system in the body (See any of the cites implied by my handle), to suggest it's not a factor at all is very likely incorrect.

[0] Mefford et al, "Incidence of Diabetes Among Youth Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic" https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle... [1] Ssentongo et al, "Association of COVID-19 with diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-24185-7

Re: Type 2 diabetes rates in US youth rose 62% after Covid pandemic began

#107

Post by haldujai »

throwaway290 wrote: post #102
lamontcg wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should really start by asking the parent comment where they got their information or any papers showing the biological effect of spike on ACE2 receptors after vaccination. https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-vaccine-safe-idUSL... This is the actual scientific article: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/74/4/715/6279075?login=... Sorry, after 2.5 years I misremembered pg/mL as fg/mL but its all too small t…

What are your thoughts on https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.061025 (AFAICT, correlation between post-vaccine myocarditis and detectable free spike, possibly due to individual differences in some adolescents causing slower(?) spike clearance)? Credible?

There's a very detailed commentary on that article you may find interesting.

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.0...

Re: Type 2 diabetes rates in US youth rose 62% after Covid pandemic began

#108

Post by lamontcg »

throwaway290 wrote: post #102
lamontcg wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should really start by asking the parent comment where they got their information or any papers showing the biological effect of spike on ACE2 receptors after vaccination. https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-vaccine-safe-idUSL... This is the actual scientific article: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/74/4/715/6279075?login=... Sorry, after 2.5 years I misremembered pg/mL as fg/mL but its all too small t…

What are your thoughts on https://doi.org/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.061025 (AFAICT, correlation between post-vaccine myocarditis and detectable free spike, possibly due to individual differences in some adolescents causing slower(?) spike clearance)? Credible?

I've suffered viral pericarditis before due to a cold, so I'm very aware of how the immune system can cause autoimmune inflammatory conditions (onset of my symptoms were weeks after my cold symptoms had completely cleared--the virus wasn't still around banging on my pericardium).

You don't need circulating spike to explain vaccine caused myocarditis. The vaccine produces an immune response. The initial immune response are low affinity antibodies. Those antibodies can sometimes target host cells accidentally. As somatic hypermutation happens in the months following the exposure to the antigen the high affinity antibodies that form (and which are boosted by a 2nd exposure to the antigen) are less likely to accidentally target host cells. This is presumably why I had a complete recovery after around 2 months and all I needed was an NSAID to tamp down the inflammation.

The obvious objection to that article is that correlation is not causation. It needs to be replicated, and there needs to be more than just speculation about a mechanism. There already exists a very well-known mechanism (autoimmunity) for the alternative explanation.

Re: Type 2 diabetes rates in US youth rose 62% after Covid pandemic began

#109

Post by nvm0n2 »

lamontcg wrote: post #101
verisimi wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

You should really start by asking the parent comment where they got their information or any papers showing the biological effect of spike on ACE2 receptors after vaccination. https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-vaccine-safe-idUSL... This is the actual scientific article: https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/74/4/715/6279075?login=... Sorry, after 2.5 years I misremembered pg/mL as fg/mL but its all too small t…

You're overlooking the cases where the vaccine enters the bloodstream and itself is circulating, or gets transcribed and yields permanent spike production. Especially if combined with immune tolerance this can cause the observed effects where vaccines are directly triggering t1 diabetes (see my comments on another thread for study links showing this, including one from moderna itself).

Re: Type 2 diabetes rates in US youth rose 62% after Covid pandemic began

#110

Post by defrost »

CiteXieAlAlyEtc wrote: post #105
defrost wrote: post #16

Diabetes is complex and a simplistic jump to "Covid directly causes Diabetes" is very likely incorrect. From the article itself: Diabetes risk factors may have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic including limited physical activity, increased sedentary behaviors, sleep disturbances, and increased intake of processed foods. and note that diabetes has increased in very specific groups, not generally at the sa…

To be sort of nitpicky: the underlying study [0] does not argue a direct causal connection. This is one of many current observational studies reporting on population level trends and measuring associated incidence ratios/risk ratios/hazard ratios. That said, dismissing the COVID correlation entirely out of hand also feels wrong here; in part because there are meta analysis in the literature [1] that show risk ratios…

> To be sort of nitpicky: the underlying study [0] does not argue ...

To be sort of nitpicky at the time I made that comment there were only four (IIRC) other comments here all of which were making direct causal connections.

It was less the article I was addressing and more those commenters that felt the need to jump straight into "COVID ate my homework" stories.

I can see that both yourself and I appear to agree that covid-19 is a complex disease with a great many correlations and it certainly factors into to at least some kind of indirect connection.

Of interest, perhaps, is this quote from the link I provided above:

    After adjusting for differences in the age structure of the population, the proportion of people living with type 2 diabetes almost doubled between 2000 and 2013, and has remained relatively stable in the last decade.
There was no covid in the post 2000 decade, something in that time period caused type-2 diabetes to double (rise by 100%) all the same.

I hope you and I both share a similar degree of wariness towards the conclusions of meta-analysis reviews.

Post reply on HN