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The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

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Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#41
Why do people borrow so much money to go to school? I don't understand why kids do this shit, are they just stupid? I'm not special but family was poor and when I graduated HS, I went to work for 2 years to earn enough to go to a local State School. It cost approx 5k a semester. I did live at home but continued to work part time. I managed to graduate in 4 years without owing a single penny to anyone.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#42
post #16

It’s so ridiculous that economists, policymakers and even the fed is so out of touch with the reality of the market. The housing market highs are a result of less supply and not high demand. 90% of mortgages are locked in under 3% rates which ensures the lack of supply will continue in this high interest market, and in some sense even make it worse. A very low percentage of people will be so stretched with student pa…

housing is NOT a market.

Its not an ideal market, but no real markets are.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think usury is?

Lending money out at unreasonably high interest rates. Which makes 7% usury.

7% is not unreasonable by any stretch of the imagination.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#44
post #16

It’s so ridiculous that economists, policymakers and even the fed is so out of touch with the reality of the market. The housing market highs are a result of less supply and not high demand. 90% of mortgages are locked in under 3% rates which ensures the lack of supply will continue in this high interest market, and in some sense even make it worse. A very low percentage of people will be so stretched with student pa…

housing is NOT a market.

You're right, it's an essential service and a human right.

Everyone should have access to reasonably well maintained, warm / cool, shelter they can call their own.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#45

This headline could easily be anything: dog shelters brace for flood of new dogs as student loan payments resume. Oh wait it was a headline: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/09/16/animal... There are so many downstream issues from this that I honestly think that promising it and then not delivering will be a huge hurtle for the Biden campaign to win over this demographic again.

As some one in the demographic that would have benefited, I saw he promised it, followed through implementing it (although in a wishy-washy kind of way that should have been bigger), and then had it snatched away from me for political reasons from the other party. It's exactly how I have come to view political issues when it comes to race, gender, etc.

Better to have the Democrats over promise and sometimes kind of follow through than be targeted (either myself or family members/friends) for negative actions for a slightly lower tax coming out of my paycheck.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interest rates are not that high currently. Sheesh you give people a taste of 2.5% and they act like 7% is usury.

That’s a ridiculous statement. It’s not the rates that matter but the monthly payment. A 800K mortgage (which is a very reasonable number in most cities), would be a 3K/month payment @2.5% but 5.6K/month @7.5%. So excuse me if I complain about having to pay almost twice the amount. People like to give the example of high interest rates in the past and how that was fine, but often forget to account for the fact that h…

Right but in that case the housing price and not the interest rate is the problem, isn’t it?

Housing prices: record high

Interest rate: pretty moderate

Problem: the pretty moderate thing?

The solution to either of these problems is different. Answer to high housing prices: build more. Answer to high interest: lower interest, which then inflates housing prices, which without more building means just more people priced out.

The issue is prices which is an issue with supply.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#47
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like 7% inflation isn’t that bad because it could be a whole lot worse?

Look, a 10% interest rate isn't that much on a $10,000 personal loan. But that doesn't even buy you a new car today and for a measly apartment in a major city you gotta be prepared to spit in the vicinity of $1,000,000. This insanity has to stop, hence the high interest rates.

The prices are high. Not the interest rate. And yes the distinction is important because the solutions to each problem is different.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#48

Why do people borrow so much money to go to school? I don't understand why kids do this shit, are they just stupid? I'm not special but family was poor and when I graduated HS, I went to work for 2 years to earn enough to go to a local State School. It cost approx 5k a semester. I did live at home but continued to work part time. I managed to graduate in 4 years without owing a single penny to anyone.

> Why do people borrow so much money to go to school? I don’t understand why kids do this shit, are they just stupid?

No, quite the opposite. See: https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20190723_R45090_4000d00...

And particularly, Table 2, Figure 4, and Figure 5.

There’s a popular observation that real wages have been largely flat over the long term from ~1980. And that’s true, in aggregate. But the premium for bachelor’s (and even more so, higher) degrees has increased in that time period, with real wages for the degree-holding group going up, and for the non-degree group going down.

> I did live at home

Even if there is a public university campus close enough to allow that (and that’s not always the case), the student load is generally high enough that (other than the kind of people who are also likely to qualify for academic scholarships anyway) there’s no guarantee of a qualified individual getting in to their first choice school.

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#49
post #33

It’s so ridiculous that economists, policymakers and even the fed is so out of touch with the reality of the market. The housing market highs are a result of less supply and not high demand. 90% of mortgages are locked in under 3% rates which ensures the lack of supply will continue in this high interest market, and in some sense even make it worse. A very low percentage of people will be so stretched with student pa…

Eliminate the portion of demand from investor ownership of homes, by outlawing it?

34% of Americans rent. Virtually all of them from investors. What will happen to them if you disallow investor ownership?

Re: The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a ridiculous statement. It’s not the rates that matter but the monthly payment. A 800K mortgage (which is a very reasonable number in most cities), would be a 3K/month payment @2.5% but 5.6K/month @7.5%. So excuse me if I complain about having to pay almost twice the amount. People like to give the example of high interest rates in the past and how that was fine, but often forget to account for the fact that h…

Right but in that case the housing price and not the interest rate is the problem, isn’t it? Housing prices: record high Interest rate: pretty moderate Problem: the pretty moderate thing? The solution to either of these problems is different. Answer to high housing prices: build more. Answer to high interest: lower interest, which then inflates housing prices, which without more building means just more people priced…

I agree but with a caveat. My original comment (the parent on this thread) was about supply. Ideally moderate interest rates are not a problem, but when you get there by aggressively hiking the rates after a decade of low rates, it becomes a problem. Mostly because anyone who didn’t benefit from the environment (90+% of the population), will have a hard time catching up even with moderate rates.
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