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TSMC tells vendors to delay chip equipment deliveries

reuters.com

11–20 of 54 posts

Re: TSMC tells vendors to delay chip equipment deliveries

#11
Last week's news, submitted a few times (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37528494 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37547828).... anything new since?

Mon, Sep 18th, Taiwan shares tumble to end below 16,700 points as TSMC hit hard

https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202309180011

Re: TSMC tells vendors to delay chip equipment deliveries

#12

" two sources familiar with the matter said." I don't really get how an article can be built off that. Isn't that completely insubstantial on the face of it? Are we supposed to just trust that some reuters journalist is sourcing this info from a credible primary source?

that's usually what journalists do.

if you're concerned about Reuters credibility (you should be, for unrelated reasons), check this particular journalist's history.

Re: TSMC tells vendors to delay chip equipment deliveries

#13

" two sources familiar with the matter said." I don't really get how an article can be built off that. Isn't that completely insubstantial on the face of it? Are we supposed to just trust that some reuters journalist is sourcing this info from a credible primary source?

yes, that is how journalism works.

Re: TSMC tells vendors to delay chip equipment deliveries

#14
post #2

This makes absolutely no sense. A month ago the headline was "Apple buys every 3 nm chip that TSMC can make for next-gen iPhones and Macs" [1]. Six months ago it was a global chip shortage that had supply chains backed up around the planet. And now it's suddenly "the world's top contract chipmaker grows increasingly nervous about customer demand"? In the middle of a revolution in AI? Something doesn't add up here. ht…

> Six months ago it was a global chip shortage that had supply chains backed up around the planet.

chip != chip. TSMC manufactures hundreds of products, check out slide 4 of the last quarterly results [1].

"AI" (on 5nm or below) is currently only a smaller share of total capacity. 7nm was only around 50% utilization, compared to 110% a year ago.

The recent chip shortage was mostly from 28nm or above. Think automotive, and the like.

The inventory correction happening now is from a strong reduction in smartphone business, and HPC is also down thanks to PC sales declining 10-15% this year.

And there is nothing surprising about this, TSMC has been guiding this inventory correction for more than a year now.

[1] https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file...

Re: TSMC tells vendors to delay chip equipment deliveries

#15
post #2

This makes absolutely no sense. A month ago the headline was "Apple buys every 3 nm chip that TSMC can make for next-gen iPhones and Macs" [1]. Six months ago it was a global chip shortage that had supply chains backed up around the planet. And now it's suddenly "the world's top contract chipmaker grows increasingly nervous about customer demand"? In the middle of a revolution in AI? Something doesn't add up here. ht…

> Six months ago it was a global chip shortage that had supply chains backed up around the planet. chip != chip. TSMC manufactures hundreds of products, check out slide 4 of the last quarterly results [1]. "AI" (on 5nm or below) is currently only a smaller share of total capacity. 7nm was only around 50% utilization, compared to 110% a year ago. The recent chip shortage was mostly from 28nm or above. Think automotive…

> The recent chip shortage was mostly from 28nm or above.

As a reminder to others, 28 nm was the last planar process; there's a discontinuity in cost moving below 28 nm to FinFET processes. For applications which don't need the last bit of density of power efficiency, 28 nm is likely to stay a sweet spot for a long, long time to come.

Re: TSMC tells vendors to delay chip equipment deliveries

#16
post #2

This makes absolutely no sense. A month ago the headline was "Apple buys every 3 nm chip that TSMC can make for next-gen iPhones and Macs" [1]. Six months ago it was a global chip shortage that had supply chains backed up around the planet. And now it's suddenly "the world's top contract chipmaker grows increasingly nervous about customer demand"? In the middle of a revolution in AI? Something doesn't add up here. ht…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect My naïve assumption is that it has to do with this?

That one knows no mercy.

Re: TSMC tells vendors to delay chip equipment deliveries

#18
post #2

This makes absolutely no sense. A month ago the headline was "Apple buys every 3 nm chip that TSMC can make for next-gen iPhones and Macs" [1]. Six months ago it was a global chip shortage that had supply chains backed up around the planet. And now it's suddenly "the world's top contract chipmaker grows increasingly nervous about customer demand"? In the middle of a revolution in AI? Something doesn't add up here. ht…

Apple buying every N3B wafer isn't enough to match the orders they placed. They had originally anticipated other customers on N3B too. But only Apple has an N3B design ready for manufacture. Intel - the only other major N3B customer - plans to use it for Arrow Lake S which is a late 2024 product. Every other major customer decided to wait for N3E because N3B is too expensive. TSMC therefore wants to push out the acquisition of additional machines until next year when N3E is ready. It's also the reason TSMC pulled in N3E a quarter or two.

Re: TSMC tells vendors to delay chip equipment deliveries

#19
post #12

" two sources familiar with the matter said." I don't really get how an article can be built off that. Isn't that completely insubstantial on the face of it? Are we supposed to just trust that some reuters journalist is sourcing this info from a credible primary source?

that's usually what journalists do. if you're concerned about Reuters credibility (you should be, for unrelated reasons), check this particular journalist's history.

Too lazy to look it up, but what exactly is it about said journalist? Good, bad? Because Reuters is one of the best journalistic sources out there.

Edit: Two sources confirming stuff is not just how journalism works, but also intelligence services.

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