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Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

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Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#91
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The benefit comes when prices reach the level where traffic flows at full speed. This increases the traffic throughput by maybe 5x, which makes the road much more useful.

> The benefit comes when prices reach the level where traffic flows at full speed. How then does your gardener get his truck to your house? Your DoorDash driver? The elderly woman on a fixed income who needs to get to her doctors appointment? Roads cannot be the domain of the rich. (Also please don't pretend that public transport is even remotely viable in the US)

You assume it will be very expensive. I don't think so, but we'd have to implement it to know the levels.

For many errands, people can avoid rush hours, which may not even need road pricing.

I'll note that all your "poor" examples own a car.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#92
post #56
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Having a 100% automated driving system will fix traffic. How? If we replace every car driven by an individual with a car driven by machine… you’re left with the same number of cars. Just as much traffic. Still need all the roads. And parking lots unless the cars drive more to avoid parking. Better for the environment? I don’t see it. Every car taken off the road (including EVs!) is less polluting. Less fuel. Less m…

> How? If we replace every car driven by an individual with a car driven by machine If all vehicles - not just cars - were driven by machines and connected to a network then there are many optimisations that they could be doing. For example you could get rid of traffic lights, yielding rules, even lanes. Cars could travel much faster if they didn’t have to worry about reaction times. For example cars could go through…

> For example cars could go through intersections at full speed or close to it, timing it so they passed between each other. Cars could actually merge onto freeways and change lanes at full speed without some jerk trying to block them. You wouldn’t have slow drivers in the fast lane.

That kind of system precludes the presence of pedestrians and cyclists.

You'll still need crosswalks to allow pedestrians to cross the street. Beyond that, the mere possibility of a kid running into the street means that your theoretical maximum speed is basically the same as it is now, simply due to physics: even if cars can instantly detect a person trying to cross the road, you still need time to brake and come to a stop. That doesn't change whether it's a computer driving the car or a human. Speeding up autonomous traffic basically undermines the biggest advantage--360 degree awareness and faster-than-human reaction times--AVs should offer.

As for intersections where cars zip through the gaps between cars with minimal spacing, that's a pipe dream simply because you're cutting safety margins to nearly zero. Signals drop out and computer processes crash. Car sensors will pick up false positives.

Car brakes and tires wear down over time, which will cause the car's performance to deviate from what everyone's models will expect. Bald tires? Winter tires in summer? Summer tires in winter? Maybe your car tries to take into account tire wear, but what happens if they're out of balance or alignment and the tread wears unevenly? What about the autonomous SUV that's loaded nearly at its maximum load thanks to the home improvement supplies the person bought at Home Depot?

The sort of carefully choreographed ballet you're envisioning[0] falls apart in catastrophic fashion the moment a single car comes along that doesn't behave as expected. If one car slams on the brakes to avoid a kid, a ball bouncing into traffic, a barrel that fell over, or any of the million other examples of things that happen in a complex environment, you get a massive multi-car collision, and because we're now moving faster than would have been possible before, you're going to get casualties.

So you need to slow traffic flow and increase the distance between cars to create a larger safety margin. That cuts down on the expected advantages, and you wind up much closer to existing traffic flows than the imagined ballet. And even if we choose to ignore the possibility of failure, at the end of the day, roads are a finite surface. There's still a physical limit to the number that can physically fit on a given stretch of road. AVs could, theoretically, push that number higher by removing some of the factors that decrease capacity, but there's still a limit. They can't solve the problem of congestion.

There's also the human element. Even if you "know" the cars are communicating with one another and you'll safely shoot through the intersection, those pesky human brains--you know, the ones that evolved to notice predators on the edge of a person's field of vision before those predators managed to rush up and eat you---are going to positively lose their shit the second they see a car speeding towards them on what appears to be a collision course at 50 miles an hour. That kind of intersection is pretty much perfect for triggering those fight-or-flight stress responses, and they'll make the stress of even the worst of LA traffic look positively pleasant by comparison.

Can AVs do a lot to improve traffic? Sure, assuming they don't increase the number of vehicles on the road--which is unlikely, to say the least. Anyhow, even the less-capable levels of automation could decrease things like phantom traffic jams. But we'll never see the kind of traffic ballets you're talking about save, perhaps, things like highway on-ramps.

0. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzkv5beS4uk

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#93
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are the kinds of optimizations that work very well in theory and are an absolute nightmare in practice. You're talking about a system where one kid running into the road could cause a chain collision of dozens of cars that were counting on rushing the intersection at high speed. Or, alternatively, could end up with the kid getting hit at 45 miles an hour, with extremely fatal and destructive results.

You can say the same thing about high speed trains now. The difference is, a well set up automated system is probably the best odds a kid is going to get at survival because if all the cars are networked they will know ahead of time there is someone rapidly braking ahead of them.

The kid doesn't give a damn if the cars behind the car that's about to hit them are braking. All that matters is whether that first car is able to brake fast enough to avoid hitting them, or if not, whether the car has slowed sufficiently to maybe not kill them. If networked autonomous cars are moving faster, the kid is much less likely to survive. Period.

Maybe the car detects the kid earlier. But that's not guaranteed; if the kid runs out from between two parked cars, for example, there may not be sufficient time at higher speeds for the car to stop.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#94

The solution for too much traffic is well known and independent of robotaxis. "Road Pricing" means that vehicles pay for driving on congested roads. The price is set so that road supply and demand match, and traffic flows optimally. It also gives the road owner an income for providing important roads.

Bingo! Singapore has solved this extremely effectively. Note that the solution is not just on demand pricing but also having good transportation infrastructure that actually is usable and is a viable alternative. Bay Area has addressed it to some degree but I would not call it solved by any means. They have dynamic pricing which ensure you can pay to go faster during peak times. This is mostly a solution for rich peo…

Singapore also has very expensive car purchase taxes and gas taxes. Yet, taxis in the city state are still incredibly affordable compared to USA prices, which doesn’t bode well for dissuading robo taxies over there.

https://www.introducingsingapore.com/taxi#:~:text=With%20som....

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know of any good implementations of this system?

Singapore?

Singapore taxis have a 25% up rate charge during rush hour, but they are still very affordable.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#96
post #68
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How? If we replace every car driven by an individual with a car driven by machine If all vehicles - not just cars - were driven by machines and connected to a network then there are many optimisations that they could be doing. For example you could get rid of traffic lights, yielding rules, even lanes. Cars could travel much faster if they didn’t have to worry about reaction times. For example cars could go through…

Those are the kinds of optimizations that work very well in theory and are an absolute nightmare in practice. You're talking about a system where one kid running into the road could cause a chain collision of dozens of cars that were counting on rushing the intersection at high speed. Or, alternatively, could end up with the kid getting hit at 45 miles an hour, with extremely fatal and destructive results.

The same is true with human drivers. That kid has a much better chance of surviving with self driving cars than human driven cars when lots of congestion is involved. (I assume you mean the kid rushes out into a crowded road way with 4 lanes of traffic, which actually happens in China although I doubt that case is a thing in the states)

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can say the same thing about high speed trains now. The difference is, a well set up automated system is probably the best odds a kid is going to get at survival because if all the cars are networked they will know ahead of time there is someone rapidly braking ahead of them.

The kid doesn't give a damn if the cars behind the car that's about to hit them are braking. All that matters is whether that first car is able to brake fast enough to avoid hitting them, or if not, whether the car has slowed sufficiently to maybe not kill them. If networked autonomous cars are moving faster, the kid is much less likely to survive. Period. Maybe the car detects the kid earlier. But that's not guarant…

This is a huge problem with human drivers today. Get rid of on street parking then you won’t have kids just popping out of nowhere! It holds for pedestrians just trying to cross the street, no need to have a hypothetical kid chasing a ball, it’s already a problem.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#98
post #55

Uber Pool was so cheap it increased overall city travel: For every mile of personal driving it removed, it added 2.6 miles of people who otherwise would have taken another mode of transportation. Seems logical. So, why not automate the bus system and automatically introduce routes where demand is? Such a system would ensure that people can quickly get where they are going, not add vehicles to the busy parts of the sy…

The prerequisite technology for an automated bus system is not the ability to take the driver out of the bus. The prerequisite is the ability to credibly signal to all the potential passengers what buses are going where they want to go, where they should get on those buses, and where they are supposed to get off. All of the automation of bus routes involved is simple computation and I don't see AI having anything fun…

That would work pretty well. Just hail a bus with your phone, it tells you where to walk and what bus to get on, and where to get off on that bus, and how to finish your trip on foot or by connecting to another bus. It could all easily be integrated into Apple or google maps. No more fixed bus routes, just a bunch of AI buses driving around filling needs dynamically.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#99
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we define deadheading as any segment on a route a transit vehicle is empty (which is at odds with the definition for deadheading from my flight attendant friends, and my friends who are fans of the greatful dead), and eliminate that, a lot of bus lines are going to become very short, especially late at night.

Buses typically make several runs along their route in both directions, until they need to go back to the barn for refueling, maintenance, or mileage. So any deadheading they need to arrive or return from that route tends to be a fractional part of the mileage they make on that route. Also, the route taken to and from the barn can be a lower-traffic route than that which the bus covers on its scheduled route. It's al…

A lot of buses will run empty going the non-demand way during rush hour. Like the D-line in Seattle where I live, if you try to catch a bus into downtown around 5 PM, one or two out of service empty buses will pass you by first since I guess metro thinks they are better off getting back to downtown more quickly than servicing off peak demand along the way.

Re: Uber was supposed to help traffic. It didn’t. Robotaxis will be even worse

#100
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, that’s a great point I hadn’t considered before. Thanks!

Sadly the robotaxis are already doing it. They circle around SF because it’s ‘free’ since they don’t have to pay for parking. Taking up road space and causing traffic with no one inside because it’s cheaper to the companies even though it makes things worse for everyone else.

They could be going to pick up their next fare, or driving towards where they predict their next fare to likely be. Same as a normal manned taxi actually.
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