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‘Sea is constantly dumping bodies’: fears Libya flood death toll may hit 20k

theguardian.com

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Re: ‘Sea is constantly dumping bodies’: fears Libya flood death toll may hit 20k

#31

Post by thriftwy »

misja111 wrote: post #22
penneallagricia wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If its impossible to say, then why intervene? If you can't prove that bombing will have net positive effects then why do it?

The intervention was to implement a UN resolution to force a cease fire: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Counci... Not even Russia or China voted against it at the time so apparently most of the world agreed it was a good idea.

I hope that you understand that bombing Lybia, supplying rebels with weapons and then making them kill Gaddafi is a direct opposite of a cease fire?

Or do you believe that a cease fire is when the other side ceases firing so you can get a good shot yourself?

Re: ‘Sea is constantly dumping bodies’: fears Libya flood death toll may hit 20k

#33

Post by Ygg2 »

flohofwoe wrote: post #27
totetsu wrote: post #2

When ever I see something like this I can’t help but wonder if it would have happened if EU and America hadn’t assassinated Gaddafi. I know that’s kind of a knee jerk reaction, but really what is happening in lybia now? What’s the plan? Protect the oil pipelines and just don’t look too close anymore?

I don't remember the EU or America assassinating Gaddafi, only that he was killed by his own people Mussolini-style.

Rocket that blew his convoy came from NATO bombers saying they weren't behind it is asinine.

Re: ‘Sea is constantly dumping bodies’: fears Libya flood death toll may hit 20k

#34

Post by Majromax »

mschuster91 wrote: post #19
totetsu wrote: post #2

When ever I see something like this I can’t help but wonder if it would have happened if EU and America hadn’t assassinated Gaddafi. I know that’s kind of a knee jerk reaction, but really what is happening in lybia now? What’s the plan? Protect the oil pipelines and just don’t look too close anymore?

> When ever I see something like this I can’t help but wonder if it would have happened if EU and America hadn’t assassinated Gaddafi. Gaddafi would have died sooner or later anyway, and he was a kleptocrat like all other dictators were and are. > but really what is happening in lybia now? What’s the plan? Protect the oil pipelines and just don’t look too close anymore? What would be needed is an intervention force t…

> What would be needed is an intervention force that takes over the entire country and stabilizes it

An occupation force is not tenable in the modern era.

Per a Washington Post article from 2004[1], the post-WW2 occupation of Germany had an initial force ratio of one occupying soldier per 40 civilians. At that level, occupying forces could assume direct command of civil structures, without needing to sign deals with the least-bad bandits or warlords in waiting to act on our behalf.

Per Wikipedia, Libya's current population is a bit above 7 million. With a similar force ratio, that means an occupying force would require 175,000 soldiers. A Fermi estimate of cost is $100k/yr/soldier ($10k doesn't pay for salary, $1m is implausibly large), giving an occupation cost of $17.5bn/yr[2] before any special funding like (re)building major infrastructure projects.

This kind of cost is insupportable in a modern democracy, where voters will rightly ask why 'we' should bother. Libya was not and is not an existential threat like WW2-era Germany, and we're not in the imperial/colonial era where occupying forces could loot the country to pay for its own occupation.

[1] -- https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2004/05/09/a...

[2] -- This is also why meaningful intervention in Haiti will not happen, if you believe the calling-for-intervention reports that civil government has more or less collapsed in that nation.

Re: ‘Sea is constantly dumping bodies’: fears Libya flood death toll may hit 20k

#35

Post by postsantum »

flohofwoe wrote: post #27
totetsu wrote: post #2

When ever I see something like this I can’t help but wonder if it would have happened if EU and America hadn’t assassinated Gaddafi. I know that’s kind of a knee jerk reaction, but really what is happening in lybia now? What’s the plan? Protect the oil pipelines and just don’t look too close anymore?

I don't remember the EU or America assassinating Gaddafi, only that he was killed by his own people Mussolini-style.

I don't remember people being the cause of Gaddafi's assassination. There were bullets and knives actually

Re: ‘Sea is constantly dumping bodies’: fears Libya flood death toll may hit 20k

#36

Post by thriftwy »

Majromax wrote: post #34
mschuster91 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When ever I see something like this I can’t help but wonder if it would have happened if EU and America hadn’t assassinated Gaddafi. Gaddafi would have died sooner or later anyway, and he was a kleptocrat like all other dictators were and are. > but really what is happening in lybia now? What’s the plan? Protect the oil pipelines and just don’t look too close anymore? What would be needed is an intervention force t…

> What would be needed is an intervention force that takes over the entire country and stabilizes it An occupation force is not tenable in the modern era. Per a Washington Post article from 2004[1], the post-WW2 occupation of Germany had an initial force ratio of one occupying soldier per 40 civilians. At that level, occupying forces could assume direct command of civil structures, without needing to sign deals with…

Then stop toppling governments[1].

Where you can't do anything, you do not need to want anything.

  1. Perhaps one can say that this is already done, since we do not hear of any recent examples. Still, this was not very far back.

Re: ‘Sea is constantly dumping bodies’: fears Libya flood death toll may hit 20k

#37

Post by themgt »

PedroBatista wrote: post #29
themgt wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "EU and America" didn't assassinate Gaddafi. Right. "We came, we saw, he died! [lol]" Gaddafi was "assassinated" because there was a full-on civil war and the EU and America bombed the massive convoy he had sent to crush the rebellion in Benghazi and enforced a no-fly zone otherwise Gaddafi's planes would obliterate the rebel forces and the civilians living in those cities This is just revisionist nonsense. There…

I already see there is no point in continue this conversation. I notice your standards for US/EU intervention are very very high and basically nobody should ever being killed. Why don't you apply the same reasoning to Gaddafi's regime and Syria/Russia/Al-Qaeda? You seem to have every problem existing in the Universe when the evil West does something ( and also a problem when it doesn't, also a problem that the West e…

Why don't you apply the same reasoning to Gaddafi's regime and Syria/Russia/Al-Qaeda?

What reasoning? First of all I'm an American citizen, so I concern myself more with what my country does with my tax dollars than what other countries do, especially within their own borders or in situations that don't directly affect American citizens. I don't believe America's job is global law enforcement. It's like asking an American "why don't you apply the reasoning that President Trump is corrupt to President Ali Bongo of Niger? Why aren't you calling for President Ali Bongo's arrest? Double standard?"

also a problem that the West exists I suspect

It's fascinating that my criticism of the US/NATO bombing and invading and occupying other countries leads you to suspect I have a problem "that the West exists". In your conception perhaps "the West" would cease to exist as such if it were not the global hegemon?

yet not a peep when these regimes torture and kill people by the thousands

Saudi Arabia tortures and kills people by the thousands. If China or Russia invaded Saudi Arabia and attempted to turn it into a client state using the justification of Saudi misdeeds, would you support them? I suspect not, but we're back to "when the US/NATO does it it's good, when US/NATO adversaries do it it's bad" being the "rules-based order" many believe should exist.

Re: ‘Sea is constantly dumping bodies’: fears Libya flood death toll may hit 20k

#38

Post by boppo1 »

PedroBatista wrote: post #29
themgt wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "EU and America" didn't assassinate Gaddafi. Right. "We came, we saw, he died! [lol]" Gaddafi was "assassinated" because there was a full-on civil war and the EU and America bombed the massive convoy he had sent to crush the rebellion in Benghazi and enforced a no-fly zone otherwise Gaddafi's planes would obliterate the rebel forces and the civilians living in those cities This is just revisionist nonsense. There…

I already see there is no point in continue this conversation. I notice your standards for US/EU intervention are very very high and basically nobody should ever being killed. Why don't you apply the same reasoning to Gaddafi's regime and Syria/Russia/Al-Qaeda? You seem to have every problem existing in the Universe when the evil West does something ( and also a problem when it doesn't, also a problem that the West e…

> intervention

We used to call this war. Is Russia just ‘intervening’ in Ukraine right now?

Re: ‘Sea is constantly dumping bodies’: fears Libya flood death toll may hit 20k

#39

Post by boppo1 »

orwin wrote: post #28
themgt wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "EU and America" didn't assassinate Gaddafi. Right. "We came, we saw, he died! [lol]" Gaddafi was "assassinated" because there was a full-on civil war and the EU and America bombed the massive convoy he had sent to crush the rebellion in Benghazi and enforced a no-fly zone otherwise Gaddafi's planes would obliterate the rebel forces and the civilians living in those cities This is just revisionist nonsense. There…

For accuracy's sake (i can't find the Atlantic article talking about it, and i'm not bored enough to spend my day going through Wikileaks, so right now the source is trustmebro, i hope that someone have the documents/article in favorite), thanks to Hilary's leaked emails, we know that Obama's administration wasn't keen on going in Libya, and only Sarkozy(France) and Cameron(UK) insistence on attacking decided the US…

How did France compel the US about anything?

Re: ‘Sea is constantly dumping bodies’: fears Libya flood death toll may hit 20k

#40

Post by pjc50 »

nonrandomstring wrote: post #5

Heartbreaking. The tone of all observers is that this is as much a failure of governance as an environmental catastrophe. As everyone who was at Burning Man learned, plumbing and drainage is the basis of civilisation. Letting it go to rack and ruin is storing up misery, so it worries me that in the UK we've had 20 years of government that has effectively "washed its hands" of water management.

It was remarkable how one of the first movements after withdrawing from the EU was to change the rules so water companies could dump sewage and render watercourses unsafe and polluted.
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