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The Tyranny of the Marginal User

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Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reinforcing your point, Peter Singer, philosopher and noted utilitarian, has explicitly said that he weights misery far more than happiness in his own framework. From a personal level, he said he'd give up the 10 best days of his life to remove the one worst day of his life (or something like that). All of his work with effective altruism is aimed at reducing suffering of those worst off in the world and spends no ti…

I hadn’t heard that about Singer’s philosophy (unsurprisingly as I’ve read very little of his work). It’s interesting for me in that it lines up with Kahnemann & Tversky’s “losses loom larger than gains” heuristic in psychology.

Singer publishes his book, "The Life You Can Save" for free -- it was revised for the 10th anniversary. It is available in various formats, including an audio book. It is a short, easy read. It is also one of the most impactful books I've ever read.

https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/

Along the header there is an item "free book" if you want to get the book.

In short, there are a few theses in the book that combine in a compelling way. This isn't his summary, this is the summary I got out of reading it. (1) the suffering of someone you don't know is just as real as the suffering of someone you do know. (2) there are many worthy causes, but we aren't allocating enough resources to address them all, so it is best to allocate them such that they do the most good for the worst off (3) if you are reading hacker news, you are likely in the 1% (worldwide) and your primary needs are already being met and you can make meaningful contributions to help those most in need without affecting your lifestyle much.

Each chapter tackles a topic. For instance, part of it brings up many the counter arguments about why someone might not want to donate and then debunks them. Eg, in a poll, most US citizens believe that 10-20% of their taxes are going to foreign, and say about half that, say 5%, would be reasonable. In fact it is well under 1%. Or people will say there have always been poor people and there will always be poor people (counter argument: to the people who are helped, aid makes a huge difference to them personally, and there have actually been great strides in the past 30 years at reducing global poverty).

Another chapter talks about the typical feel good news item about someone in the community who has gone blind and so the community pitches in to pay for a seeing eye dog for the person (it costs up to $50K to train and vet such dogs). Yet that same $50K could have prevented river blindness for thousands of children, or been enough to perform cataract surgery on thousands of blind adults.

People often say, why give to a charity in Africa? It will just end up in someone's pocket before it helps anyway. The book talks about the effective altruism movement and describes how charities are vetted and monitored. The website above has links to many such vetted charities.

Another chapter talks about where to draw the line? Sure, I can afford $700 to pay for corrective surgery for a woman suffering from fistula and feel good about myself. But in reality I could afford another $700, then another $700, etc. Do I need to keep donating to those worse off until I am one of the worse off people? (spoiler: no)

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People need to realize that the sales business model does not necessarily lead to better outcomes. I (pretty much single handedly) made a reasonably profitable mobile app. It was my bread and butter for a decade. It has millions of downloads and hundreds of thousands of monthly active users. It's a “power” tool, not a game. Unfortunately, it depends on servers for a lot of it's core features. There are no accounts, d…

This is why everything now is either free with ads or is a SaaS

To be clear, when I say "pay for things", I mean subscriptions. I don't think one time payments work at all.

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#493
post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why I like to pay for things. This dynamic only really exists for things that are given away for free.

Err, nope. As I commented on TFA, and will gladly repeat here: Wow. Well put. The scariest thing is, this translates even to domain-specific apps such as Navionics Boating. I use it every time I go out, because, somehow, they've not yet managed to touch the charts and rendering and it just works, better than any of the competitors. But, the rest of the interface is like a Fisher Price toy. You want to add a waypoint…

I'm struggling to see how this is responsive to my comment. Was it meant for someone else?

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#494

Is this related to the phenomenon where, as the smart phone market got larger the diversity of options decreased? Naively, I would have assumed the opposite. Seems to be similar in lots of large hardware markets where I would expect there to be a large enough total customer base to justify serving at least a few groups with niche interests, but it often seems like that doesn't happen and you get a very small number o…

well once android hit the market it became more rare to see RIM-compatible software, palmOS software, and all the other players back then that i can't remember. The installed userbase for android, which was designed for well-off Marls was massive, and iphones supplanted the need for nearly every other purpose built communication device. Why bother making my [chat client/browser/social media app] compatible with 16 OSes? iphone using cocoa or objectiveC or whatever and android using java meant only two stacks to maintain - at least until the platform started pushing updates whenever a new phone was released, and now you've fragmented the OS market - which leads to devices becoming obsolete before the end of their actual useful life.

the first company that can make a phone that can run android apps in a virtual machine and otherwise be a glorified electron app server (run javascript/webasm apps only) will clean up. If they make it possible to upgrade the components (m.2 storage, sodimm memory, socketed SoC), even if you have to take it to a store to upgrade - they'll win the entire market.

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#495
post #27
post #21

Thoughtful article that doesn't even mention Youtube Shorts, perhaps the most glaring example of the trend. When online services maximizes the number of daily users, perhaps in the hundreds of millions, the vast majority of them won't be very interested. So of course any data driven service will optimize keeping uninterested users occupied. That does explain a lot actually.

I'm mixed on the shorts. I like it when they do a "you fix this by pushing this button here" in 15 seconds instead of it being 8+ minutes so they can get mid roll ads.

Tbh half of the instructional shorts are just flat out wrong and even dangerous. So many electrical advice videos showing awful tips and techniques. Comments full of people pointing out the problems but most people won't read them.

They are created more for entertainment and to blast out as many videos as possible without any concern to accuracy.

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I met my wife on OkCupid. The original format attracted a much smarter and more worldly crowd of women, to put it bluntly, than the other services. I exited the dating game before Tinder, but if OkCupid lost that quirky, artsy, college educated crowd in the chase to compete, that's a real shame.

Yup. It basically started as a dating site by Brooklyn grad students, for Brooklyn grad students. Grad students love writing essays. But if you want to expand, you have to face the fact that most people aren't grad students and don't love writing (or reading) essays. The trajectory to "just another dating app" was inevitable.

The great thing was that women saw men (and vv) who aren’t only a handful of Gram-worthy photos and a couple of stolen clever pickup lines.

It allowed folks a direct avenue to those they found attractive and could use skills other than paying, stellar photography, and quotes from highly upvoted r/Tinder comments as a way to convince others to go on dates.

People have been either really successful with the way dating apps operate now (they’re incredibly attractive males or just about all females) or they’re incredibly frustrated because the algorithms have taken so much control away.

It’s a sad reality. RIP OKC.

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#497

> We’ve all been Marl at one time or another This, to me, is the key line in this quite good article. It's not that software companies are catering to those other people who are infinitely stupid and deserving of our scorn. It's that they are catering to the worse impulses in all of us and encouraging us to become those people.

Yes and no

98% of Spotify users never take any action other than “press play” on a radio station

2% take some kind of agency (create a playlist, like a song)

A vanishingly small amount create personal or public curated playlists

Yes, that very small amount may also listen passively sometimes, but the difference matters. Imagine if Spotify was just a radio station.

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#498
post #447

I worked at OkCupid from 2013-2017 and totally resonate with the author that mid-2010s OkCupid was a really special product, and that it took a steep decline as the decade went on. It's not entirely fair to say that the Match acquisition immediately caused that decline; I started a couple years after Match got the company in its hands, and only two of the original founders were still focused on OkCupid full time. But…

I feel a twinge of guilt whenever I see things about how OKC got crappy. Not that long before the acquisition a certain jackass brought in as a consultant ( ahem ) happened to point to OkC as the leading competitor against the acquiring company's properties specifically for mobile. Sorry everyone... If it makes it any better, I've had to use the product since then too, and suffered alongside all the rest of you.

Hey, at least you can say you had a direct role in how couples meet and their resulting progeny.

Our personal misery and loneliness aside, the long-term societal effects as generations wear on will be fascinating.

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#499
post #478

This is a hilarious read but I think the author is too optimistic about the state of humanity. Marl isn't the "marginal" user, Marl is the "average" user. If the average user actually cared about deep and meaningful content, then any A/B test that throws her under the bus in order to please Marl will show bad data, and the proposed change would be killed. Yes, the author tries to hand-wave this away as "product is st…

"Marginal" in the blogpost is used in the economic sense, as in the next incremental user -- not "marginal" as in minority.

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#500
post #478

This is a hilarious read but I think the author is too optimistic about the state of humanity. Marl isn't the "marginal" user, Marl is the "average" user. If the average user actually cared about deep and meaningful content, then any A/B test that throws her under the bus in order to please Marl will show bad data, and the proposed change would be killed. Yes, the author tries to hand-wave this away as "product is st…

A/B tests, as they are run by current software companies, are inherently flawed. I have never, in my entire career, ever heard of an A/B test that ran for a year, let alone 3-5 years. That’s where the true power of statistics comes alive, and nobody is financially incentivized to even consider that fact.
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