The Tyranny of the Marginal User • Hacker News Board

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#101

Post by phkahler » Thu, Sep 14, 2023, 5:47 PM UTC

rurp wrote: post #60

postmodest wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It should also be noted that match.com knows that it's business isn't "connecting people in stable relationships" but "luring people to pay for match.com by promising them connections that never work out." OKCupid had a model that increases the likelihood of matching with someone and ...never using OKCupid again. Match.com realizes that fundamental flaw. For their business to survive, they HAVE to be bad at the servi…

While there are some perverse incentives, I think this is overstating it. Millions of people enter the dating market every year by aging into it or ending a previous relationship. That seems like plenty of space to make a profitable business. Of course there is the temptation to increase the churn rate, but it doesn't have to be exploitative.

>> That seems like plenty of space to make a profitable business.

Sure, but VCs and big companies want to maximize profit, not just be profitable. When a profitable startup sells out, that's the founders also saying "profitable isn't enough for me".

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#102

Post by skyyler » Thu, Sep 14, 2023, 5:47 PM UTC

xkcd1963 wrote: post #44

"A substantial fraction of the world’s most brilliant, competent, and empathetic people ... spend their lives serving Marl" that is a logical fallacy because smart people don't waste their time on something as useless as that.

Surely you understand the underlying message about perverse or mis-aligned incentive?

Are you familiar with the fallacy fallacy?

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#103

Post by phonon » Thu, Sep 14, 2023, 5:49 PM UTC

oooyay wrote: post #33

postmodest wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It should also be noted that match.com knows that it's business isn't "connecting people in stable relationships" but "luring people to pay for match.com by promising them connections that never work out." OKCupid had a model that increases the likelihood of matching with someone and ...never using OKCupid again. Match.com realizes that fundamental flaw. For their business to survive, they HAVE to be bad at the servi…

> OKCupid had a model that increases the likelihood of matching with someone and ...never using OKCupid again. That was OKCupids claim, but was this claim ever proven through data that directly affirmed that as an outcome? Often these websites have tiered profit schemes that can milk a user for $100+/m. Sometimes they gamify it, like loot boxing, to make it more lucrative. I don't remember OKCupid being any different…

http://web.archive.org/web/20100821041938/http://blog.okcupi...

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#104

Post by jstarfish » Thu, Sep 14, 2023, 5:50 PM UTC

oooyay wrote: post #33

postmodest wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It should also be noted that match.com knows that it's business isn't "connecting people in stable relationships" but "luring people to pay for match.com by promising them connections that never work out." OKCupid had a model that increases the likelihood of matching with someone and ...never using OKCupid again. Match.com realizes that fundamental flaw. For their business to survive, they HAVE to be bad at the servi…

> OKCupid had a model that increases the likelihood of matching with someone and ...never using OKCupid again. That was OKCupids claim, but was this claim ever proven through data that directly affirmed that as an outcome? Often these websites have tiered profit schemes that can milk a user for $100+/m. Sometimes they gamify it, like loot boxing, to make it more lucrative. I don't remember OKCupid being any different…

Slow release may not be a bad thing. Modern dating seems so dehumanizing...if the NPC you're matched with doesn't check all of your preference boxes, reroll them.

But if OKCupid drags this process out so you only get n matches per month, they maximize revenue while maybe encouraging people to appreciate each other's differences.

Like getting a "crappy" CD from Columbia House...might as well listen to it. Maybe it'll grow on you!

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#105

Post by pjerem » Thu, Sep 14, 2023, 5:51 PM UTC

rurp wrote: post #60

postmodest wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It should also be noted that match.com knows that it's business isn't "connecting people in stable relationships" but "luring people to pay for match.com by promising them connections that never work out." OKCupid had a model that increases the likelihood of matching with someone and ...never using OKCupid again. Match.com realizes that fundamental flaw. For their business to survive, they HAVE to be bad at the servi…

While there are some perverse incentives, I think this is overstating it. Millions of people enter the dating market every year by aging into it or ending a previous relationship. That seems like plenty of space to make a profitable business. Of course there is the temptation to increase the churn rate, but it doesn't have to be exploitative.

The point is, even if it works, if you need 4 months for it to work instead of 1 month, that is 4 times the revenue for them.

So yes, it have to work, at least for their reputation, but it also have to not work that much.

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#106

Post by Karunamon » Thu, Sep 14, 2023, 5:52 PM UTC

koromak wrote: post #71

rurp wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While there are some perverse incentives, I think this is overstating it. Millions of people enter the dating market every year by aging into it or ending a previous relationship. That seems like plenty of space to make a profitable business. Of course there is the temptation to increase the churn rate, but it doesn't have to be exploitative.

It literally does, if you're a publicly traded company.

No it bloody well does not. The "maximize shareholder value" thing has never been read that strictly by a court of law (otherwise, Apple would have been ripe for a suit when they told off an activist investor rep who was upset they were pursuing environmental goals at the expense of better ROI [1]).

Companies hollow out (or enshittify) their products because it is easy and because it guarantees results at least in the short term. There are other ways to grow, and they tend to require imagination and long-term planning. Don't blame the stock market for entirely voluntary choices of taking the easy way out.

[1]: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2014/03/at-apple-shareholder...

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#107

Post by ultra-jeremyx » Thu, Sep 14, 2023, 5:53 PM UTC

BWStearns wrote: post #89

ultra-jeremyx wrote: post #82

Are there any examples of _consumer_ software that has an interface for the Marginal User, and a different interface for others? The only example that comes to mind is something like TweetDeck, but I believe that was killed off in the new Elmo/X era.

gmail had a kind of hidden option for adding keyboard shortcuts and their labs options. Not really a fully different interface but for a long time they kept that pretty lively. Unfortunately gmail has fallen off pretty hard lately. I can't even reliably expect my attachments to actually send the past few weeks.

Oh yeah, and they had Inbox, which I LOVED, and sadly, they killed off

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#108

Post by Kapura » Thu, Sep 14, 2023, 5:53 PM UTC

malfist wrote: post #25

Kapura wrote: post #20

Feels like this is tyranny of easily measured metrics. If your north star metric is something more focused (number of fun dates!) that incentivizes features and experiments that push that number up, but if the number is DAU, suddenly you've decoupled "success" from the actual intention of the website or app. Obviously, "number of fun dates" is a lot harder to measure, relying as it would on surveys with low response…

> say something, and leave So you want me to give up my mid-six figures job so your dates go a little bit better?

I want you to have some amount of self respect, and appreciation for your craft.

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#109

Post by anigbrowl » Thu, Sep 14, 2023, 5:54 PM UTC

afarrell wrote: post #38

postmodest wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It should also be noted that match.com knows that it's business isn't "connecting people in stable relationships" but "luring people to pay for match.com by promising them connections that never work out." OKCupid had a model that increases the likelihood of matching with someone and ...never using OKCupid again. Match.com realizes that fundamental flaw. For their business to survive, they HAVE to be bad at the servi…

A dating site could work sustainably if it was a site for planning date nights. Make profiles based on activities and swipe right or left on the activities you want to do. Revenue sources would include: - Ads for local businesses, classes, and events. - Annual subscription which is cheaper after the first year and gives you discount codes to events and restaurants. Once you get the site to work for date nights, let p…

Would this solve the problem of finding people to have sex with? No, but computers are bad at sex.

Are they? I thought hookup sites like Tinder and Grindr were very popular.

Re: The Tyranny of the Marginal User

#110

Post by unconed » Thu, Sep 14, 2023, 5:55 PM UTC

If you want to complain about software getting worse, maybe don't post it on a website that forces a pop-up on readers after they have already started reading and scroll down...