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The Lindy Effect

arxiv.org

71–80 of 88 posts

Re: The Lindy Effect

#71
post #58
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replace it with waiting for a bus and you have a classic textbook example for teaching Poisson process! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_point_process https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/122722/please-expl...

It's specifically not a Poisson process, which assumes that the chance of a bus arriving at any given time is constant. A bus arrival has some kind of multimodal distribution, where the bus either comes on time or very late, with some noise in each case.

The link between the Poisson process and the distribution of bus arrival times, is firstly that it's a good idealized example for understanding and reasoning about Poisson and exponential distribution, and secondly that the Poisson process somehow seems to be an accurate representation of our mental model of how waiting for a bus works.

If buses are scheduled to come quite frequently (and don't disappear, so they do arrive with that frequency on average), but the variance in their arrival times is a lot bigger than the average gap between them, then the distribution is actually quite close to Poisson.

Re: The Lindy Effect

#72
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My AP Lit teacher in high school encouraged us to read the bible - not for any type of religious reason - but because it is so frequently referenced by western literature, especially in older texts. If you don't pick up on the biblical allegories when reading something like Shakespeare then you'll miss critical details.

Abraham was the father of Isaac, Isaac the father of Jacob, Jacob the father of Judah and his brothers, Judah the father of Perez and Zerah, whose mother was Tamar, Perez the father of Hezron, Hezron the father of Ram, Ram the father of Amminadab, Amminadab the father of Nahshon, Nahshon the father of Salmon, [...] You do not need the whole bible for that. The bible contain way more then cultural references and a lot…

That was the first thing I noticed when I attempted to read my KJV bible and also what eventually led me to stop reading it. The monotonous repetition of lineage. Perhaps I will give it another chance later in life.

Re: The Lindy Effect

#73
post #9

I like to use the Lindy effect as an everyday heuristic, quite often for choosing what books to read. That is: if a book has been highly relevant, say, for the past 20 years, it may have considerable relevance 20 years from today as well. Conclusion: I will think about buying that physical book for my home library, so my children would have a carefully-filtered collection of "classics" from many eras by the time they…

You overfit for classics and skip on maybe very entertaining contemporary reads. Feels weird to me to hipster out on the "I build a library of classics only". With this approach you'd never read Dark Matter, which is one of my favorites in the past few years. I also don't care about rankings, top sellers etc. etc., but contemporary stuff is still worth the read. Feels very weird to me tbh.

The fact that you mention Dark Matter (no hate, taste is subjective etc.) as potentially rivaling actual classics is for me just further proof that fighting recency bias and hype is important.

But yes, of course some modern books will end up standing the test of time as well. But it's hard to judge that a priori without actually reading the book yourself.

You will spend a finite amount of time reading in your life. If you read Dark Matter now, that could for example mean that you will never end up reading Dune, or The Count of Monte-Cristo. If you're gonna sit down and read, an older book is a much safer bet if you want to maximize the value of your limited time.

Still, modern books can sometimes offer other qualities that simply don't exist in older books. Sci-Fi is a great example of that, where scienctific developments affect the writing deeply. So (unfortunately) in certain cases you might have to gamble on a newer book. But I try to avoid that.

Re: The Lindy Effect

#74
Clearly, my choice to program in Free Pascal/Lazarus, using the old GUI toolkits is vindicated! ;-)

In the world of machining, 1940s-1960s American cast iron machine tools (Mills, Lathes, etc) are the best available. Grind / Scrape the bearing surfaces true, update the control systems, and they'll be good to go for at least 2 more generations.

Re: The Lindy Effect

#75
post #70
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, we are too kind to some classics out of nostalgia perhaps. I've been greatly disappointed by top rated classic spy and sci-fi novels. The kind of storytelling people got away with 50 years ago really doesn't work anymore today. Think of bad pacing, characters without depth, lazy stereotyping, deus ex machinas. So on the one hand recency bias results in us giving undue attention to new books. On the other hand w…

"The kind of storytelling people got away with 50 years ago really doesn't work anymore today." Yeah, I've struggled with this a lot -- e.g. still having trouble reading the works of Dostoevsky because of those endless walking-in-the-park-and-philosophising dialogues. These seem alien in my time and culture. I suppose you have to sense the characteristics of that 50-year-old language -- and see the universal, timeles…

Ohhh how I can relate. I'm reading Walden as a non-native speaker and 170 years ago things were quite different. Kindle has the nice functionality that tries to explain terms. What it does in practice tho is that it explains things I know and doesn't explain wildly exotic terms ...

Re: The Lindy Effect

#76

Here is one way, I use the Lindy effect as a mental model: When picking a tech stack for a software investment and you want a reasonable expectation that it will still be actively maintained 10 years from now, you need to go back in time by 10 years. I’ve found this 10 years time horizon a useful one to work with, based on version histories of various bits of software I build upon. For example, for Python, this takes…

Sounds like there would be barely any up to date dependency that you could use, which in some cases could have known security issues, no?

To clarify: I still run the latest version of all the packages I depend on. For example, the newest version of SSL that you can still use with Python 3.4 has known issues. But I don't use that in production. I use Python 3.11 with an up-to-date SSL, but the code that I've written myself is code that I've also tested on Python 3.4 with outdated SSL. So the subset of features I use is a set of features considered by Python and SSL maintainers as so essential that they've maintained compatibility around them for ten years, and are therefore likely to maintain compatibility around for another ten years. -- Whether that's true no one can know, but applying the Lindy effect mental model would imply that this would be a useful way to think about it.

The packages I get to use after applying the above filter are a minority, but, surprisingly, it's not "barely any" either. If you decide to live like this, you'll have less eyecandy in your life and less capability to capitalize on all the latest hotness all the time. But you'll get the job done, pretty much regardless of what the job might be.

Your dependency hog colleagues will call you a dinosaur for your choice of tech stack. But when security vulnerabilities happen then, more often than not, there won't be any action needed on your part because, more often than not, you'll discover that you don't depend on the thing that has the vulnerability in the first place. You'll be home for dinner, while those same colleagues try to patch their dependencies, watch their software break, and try to work their way out of dependency hell (presumably by introducing more dependencies).

Re: The Lindy Effect

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like there would be barely any up to date dependency that you could use, which in some cases could have known security issues, no?

To clarify: I still run the latest version of all the packages I depend on. For example, the newest version of SSL that you can still use with Python 3.4 has known issues. But I don't use that in production. I use Python 3.11 with an up-to-date SSL, but the code that I've written myself is code that I've also tested on Python 3.4 with outdated SSL. So the subset of features I use is a set of features considered by Py…

Ah, ok, that makes way more sense.

Re: The Lindy Effect

#78
post #9

I like to use the Lindy effect as an everyday heuristic, quite often for choosing what books to read. That is: if a book has been highly relevant, say, for the past 20 years, it may have considerable relevance 20 years from today as well. Conclusion: I will think about buying that physical book for my home library, so my children would have a carefully-filtered collection of "classics" from many eras by the time they…

There's an implicit value judgment there though: would you stick a book that exhibited the Lindy effect even if you fundamentally disapproved of it. For example: the King James English Bible is surely very high on the Lindyness scale, massively influential, and on that basis deserves a place on every educated reader's library: but its also the source of bigotry, suffering and death for thousands of people. Do you sto…

Really? The bible is the source of bigotry and death for thousands? A vit dramatic no? The bible does not implore anyone to violence. But it is a convenient scapegoat for those with ill will

Re: The Lindy Effect

#79
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You overfit for classics and skip on maybe very entertaining contemporary reads. Feels weird to me to hipster out on the "I build a library of classics only". With this approach you'd never read Dark Matter, which is one of my favorites in the past few years. I also don't care about rankings, top sellers etc. etc., but contemporary stuff is still worth the read. Feels very weird to me tbh.

Also, we are too kind to some classics out of nostalgia perhaps. I've been greatly disappointed by top rated classic spy and sci-fi novels. The kind of storytelling people got away with 50 years ago really doesn't work anymore today. Think of bad pacing, characters without depth, lazy stereotyping, deus ex machinas. So on the one hand recency bias results in us giving undue attention to new books. On the other hand w…

Yeah I tried reading Solaris and was laughing at how bad it was. Felt the same way about nueromancer. Had a good run of trying out sci fi classics and being dissapointed. Philip k dicks stuff was solid tho. Ubiq is the shit

Re: The Lindy Effect

#80
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's an implicit value judgment there though: would you stick a book that exhibited the Lindy effect even if you fundamentally disapproved of it. For example: the King James English Bible is surely very high on the Lindyness scale, massively influential, and on that basis deserves a place on every educated reader's library: but its also the source of bigotry, suffering and death for thousands of people. Do you sto…

The bible is a hugely influential book. It is probably the most referenced book in western literature, art, and history. Reading a book is not the same as agreeing with its premises. One must also judge a book by their historical context.

The premise of the Bible is salvation from human’s fallen state through love, compassion and self sacrifice.

Many people can read the same book and get different things from it, which is an interesting point to consider wrt the lindy effect. Some books are read differently over time, or by different groups/nations. The lindy effect can include books that are read for different reasons; undoubtedly people still read mein kampf, but for wholly different reasons (one hopes!)

He who drinks the old wine is probably more interested in history than he who drinks the new.

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