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Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

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Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#121

Post by tetris11 »

Amezarak wrote: post #103
neltnerb wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I would like to have safe housing, healthcare, nutritious food, and clean water more than "driving and farming meat" but I guess we all have our priorities. I think that can definitely be sustainable indefinitely, but not so long as companies and cultures are unable to make any kind of real concessions to reality. We should not be using plastic. For basically anything. We should never have started. We should…

I was in full agreement with your comment until... > We should not be eating nearly as much meat as people do in rich countries. My peasant ancestors were eating meat every day 500 years ago. You can find different groups of people all over the world that are documented eating absurdly meat-heavy diets historically. Yes, at least some of us believe meat is very important for human flourishing. In strictly measurable…

> My peasant ancestors were eating meat every day 500 years ago. You can find different groups of people all over the world that are documented eating absurdly meat-heavy diets historically.

That can't be true, unless your ancestors have always been exceedingly wealthy. Most people's food subsisted on things you would go outside of your house and forage/barter for. Vegetables, grains, mushrooms, pulses and maybe some small game here and there.

Pound for pound, the amount of meat eaten was substantially low, since what farmer could afford to sacrifice their larger livestock on a daily basis, as well as keep the carcass for potential customers in a time without refridgegeration.

In the country where my parents grew up, this was their way of life. Small game you would eat maybe once a month, and a livestock would be sacrificed at the end of the year as a treat.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#122

Post by midoridensha »

apsec112 wrote: post #63
Liquix wrote: post #20

> Clearly, it is in humanity's best interest to... Herein lies the problem. What happens to the environment is not governed by "humanity's best interest", it's governed by whomever has the most power and the biggest stick. These entities act in their own best interest. To the Chinese government, more factories = more money = more power = good. To the US government, more military equipment = more power = good. At the…

The vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions isn't military, it's for ordinary consumer uses like heating, cooling, driving, and farming meat. No matter what the form of government, lots of people will object very strongly if the solution to climate change is not having central heating, cars, hot water, or beef for dinner.

>No matter what the form of government, lots of *Americans* will object very strongly if the solution to climate change is not having central heating, cars, hot water, or beef for dinner.

FTFY. Countless people outside the US get along just fine without cars, central heating, and the entire 1B+ nation of India is fine without beef for dinner.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#123

Post by Smoosh »

svachalek wrote: post #81
yoyohello13 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recently came across a game theory term called "Moloch" in which individual incentives lead to negative outcomes for all parties involved. Nobody individually wants the negative outcome, but it's extremely difficult to break out of the cycle.

I've also just learned this recently. See "Meditations on Moloch" for the original essay. It explains so much but it's also very depressing -- it's hard to imagine how any ordinary person has a prayer of changing the system when so many elements of it are primed to both produce terrible outcomes and to resist change. It's possible that you could design a new system of government deliberately designed to counter some…

It is interesting that the Great Filter Theory usually concerns itself with issues such as nuclear weapons, or disease, but not the failure to overcome greed and self-interest, which, let's face it, is how the modern world is structured.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#124

Post by dredmorbius »

carlosjobim wrote: post #92
Eduard wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No kidding, but to say that climate change did this when hurricanes have been on the decline the last thirty years is misleading. This is weather and engineering failures. > https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5 This HN user categorically and obsessively has their own opinion on climate change, and how it is influenced by humans. Their "evidence research" is taking the first Google search result that t…

Do you understand how creepy it is of you to go digging into other users comment history and posting about it when there's a disagreement on a topic? Maybe let the arguments speak for themselves? We're not supposed to be some kind of commissars looking for dissidents or witch hunters looking for heretics.

And why should commenting and posting history count any less than a specific comment?

That seems to be ... integral to the function of the site itself:

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...>

Reputation and patterns of behavior matter.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#125

Post by swader999 »

dredmorbius wrote: post #124
carlosjobim wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you understand how creepy it is of you to go digging into other users comment history and posting about it when there's a disagreement on a topic? Maybe let the arguments speak for themselves? We're not supposed to be some kind of commissars looking for dissidents or witch hunters looking for heretics.

And why should commenting and posting history count any less than a specific comment? That seems to be ... integral to the function of the site itself: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... > Reputation and patterns of behavior matter.

Well I guess I'm guilty of posting my own opinion on various aspects of climate change along with links from time to time. Is that evil in your books, should I be banned? I think you can go back to every post I've ever made and not find any cases of ad hominem attacks. I'm satisfied with that.

Edit, yup, it was poor maintenance on the dam as indicated in 2021: https://sebhau.edu.ly/journal/jopas/article/view/2137

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#126

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

labster wrote: post #120
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hope is fine. Hope based on "the kids today will do right by the world", not so much.

So hope based on eucatastrophe then? Works for me.

hope based on (a) there are always some number of people at a given point in time working toward the goals you want to be hopeful about (b) there's always some non-zero chance that they may be successful.

but hope somehow contigent or predicated on the age of those people? nah.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#127

Post by nostrademons »

svachalek wrote: post #81
yoyohello13 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recently came across a game theory term called "Moloch" in which individual incentives lead to negative outcomes for all parties involved. Nobody individually wants the negative outcome, but it's extremely difficult to break out of the cycle.

I've also just learned this recently. See "Meditations on Moloch" for the original essay. It explains so much but it's also very depressing -- it's hard to imagine how any ordinary person has a prayer of changing the system when so many elements of it are primed to both produce terrible outcomes and to resist change. It's possible that you could design a new system of government deliberately designed to counter some…

I'm pretty sure SlateStarCodex coined the term, in reference to game theory. It's originally from an Alan Ginsberg poem, and I've never seen it anywhere else in game theory literature.

The game-theoretical term is a "Nash equilibrium", which is the state that reality ends up in if every participant follows their own incentives (i.e. no participant can improve their individual outcome by altering their decisions). It is possible - even very common in many real-life games - to end up with a negative Nash equilibrium. The classic example is the Prisoner's Dilemma, where the globally-optimal solution is for neither player to defect, but each individual improves their own outcome by defecting, and so what actually happens is that both suspects confess.

It's also possible to achieve a positive Nash equilibrium out of morally-abhorrent individual choices. Mutually-assured destruction is a good example. The game is setup so that if either superpower launches their missiles, humanity ends. Therefore, both superpowers have an incentive to avoid nuclear war, and we're still here.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#128

Post by dredmorbius »

swader999 wrote: post #125
dredmorbius wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And why should commenting and posting history count any less than a specific comment? That seems to be ... integral to the function of the site itself: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu... > Reputation and patterns of behavior matter.

Well I guess I'm guilty of posting my own opinion on various aspects of climate change along with links from time to time. Is that evil in your books, should I be banned? I think you can go back to every post I've ever made and not find any cases of ad hominem attacks. I'm satisfied with that. Edit, yup, it was poor maintenance on the dam as indicated in 2021: https://sebhau.edu.ly/journal/jopas/article/view/2137

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32103055>

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/naked-truth/201706/y...>

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#129

Post by swader999 »

swader999 wrote: post #114
Eduard wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No kidding, but to say that climate change did this when hurricanes have been on the decline the last thirty years is misleading. This is weather and engineering failures. > https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5 This HN user categorically and obsessively has their own opinion on climate change, and how it is influenced by humans. Their "evidence research" is taking the first Google search result that t…

Well forget studies then, look at the data: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&... Use the drop down and look at accumulated cyclone energy. There's no trend in 42 years and last year was the third lowest total tropical cyclone energy for earth in the last 42 years. This year seems on track to be very low for cyclone energy too. Costs in terms of percent of GDP are falling: https://www.tandfo…

Edit, crickets? C'mon parent, what do you say to this data?

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#130

Post by lazide »

midoridensha wrote: post #122
apsec112 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions isn't military, it's for ordinary consumer uses like heating, cooling, driving, and farming meat. No matter what the form of government, lots of people will object very strongly if the solution to climate change is not having central heating, cars, hot water, or beef for dinner.

>No matter what the form of government, lots of *Americans* will object very strongly if the solution to climate change is not having central heating, cars, hot water, or beef for dinner. FTFY. Countless people outside the US get along just fine without cars, central heating, and the entire 1B+ nation of India is fine without beef for dinner.

FYI, India has a large Muslim population, and they eat beef on the regular.
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