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Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

science.org

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Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#41

Post by elihu »

Acssux wrote: post #5

How is something critical if it has been transgressed and we are still alive? Or on the very first moment every single one is past we all suddenly die?

The Titanic didn't sink the moment it hit the iceberg, it took a little over two and a half hours. During a significant portion of that time it wasn't all that obvious that anything was seriously wrong. The ship was listing slightly to one side and the engines were off.

The passengers weren't all affected equally either. A lot of first-class passengers made it onto lifeboats, whereas third class passengers mostly didn't.

(The analogy breaks down a little in that we don't have lifeboats and the collapse of our ecosystems probably won't be as absolute and catestrophic as a ship sinking. The Earth's ability to sustain large numbers of humans may decline significantly though, and a lot of things we take for granted now may be gone.)

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#42

Post by gmuslera »

Liquix wrote: post #20

> Clearly, it is in humanity's best interest to... Herein lies the problem. What happens to the environment is not governed by "humanity's best interest", it's governed by whomever has the most power and the biggest stick. These entities act in their own best interest. To the Chinese government, more factories = more money = more power = good. To the US government, more military equipment = more power = good. At the…

Another flavor of the Tragedy of the Commons. Everyone optimized by their local, short term priorities.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#43

Post by Iridescent_ »

Acssux wrote: post #5

How is something critical if it has been transgressed and we are still alive? Or on the very first moment every single one is past we all suddenly die?

If you have a pond with 1000 fishes, and each year the population of fish doubles, you can remove 501 fishes/year for quite a while. You are clearly in an unsustainable situation, yet it will take time for the population to completely collapse. These limits are in the sense that we cannot stay above forever, not in the we cannot go above ever sense.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#44

Post by bombcar »

lastofthemojito wrote: post #36
Liquix wrote: post #20

> Clearly, it is in humanity's best interest to... Herein lies the problem. What happens to the environment is not governed by "humanity's best interest", it's governed by whomever has the most power and the biggest stick. These entities act in their own best interest. To the Chinese government, more factories = more money = more power = good. To the US government, more military equipment = more power = good. At the…

> At the executive level of either organization one would be laughed out of the room for suggesting environmental issues should take priority over national security Supposedly some folks are starting to frame climate issues as threats to national security. It may just be lip service so far, but we're now seeing "Meet the Climate Crisis" listed as one of the top 5 priorities for the US Department of Defense: https://w…

I’m always extremely suspicious of “we care about climate charge” arguments that always argue for exactly what the group has always wanted to do.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#45

Post by commandlinefan »

dr_dshiv wrote: post #28

I don’t know why this triggers such skepticism in me. Particularly the section on novel entities. But it feels funny, somehow, and I can’t put my finger on it.

> why this triggers such skepticism

I know it does for me - because the people who claim to believe in it the most don't actually live their lives as if they actually believed it. Don't get me wrong, I'd be happy to do whatever I could reasonably do to create cooler summers and less smog, but I've never heard any actual concrete proposal beyond "vote democrat".

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#46

Post by musha68k »

hotpotamus wrote: post #7
Acssux wrote: post #5

How is something critical if it has been transgressed and we are still alive? Or on the very first moment every single one is past we all suddenly die?

It reminds me a bit of radiation poisoning - you can receive a lethal dose in moments. After that, you can carry on for a time; hours, maybe days feeling normal, but your death has already been ordained and your biochemical systems will collapse from the insult.

Hokuto Shinken self-application; all the neuralgic points, and with determination and lots of force.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#47

Post by jacquesm »

IKantRead wrote: post #29
Acssux wrote: post #5

How is something critical if it has been transgressed and we are still alive? Or on the very first moment every single one is past we all suddenly die?

Give it some time. Good news is that "faster than expected" seems to be a very common saying among people studying these areas, so you might not have to wait as long as the geological time might suggest! Honestly, as someone who has been very concerned about climate for a while now, I'm surprised how much visible disruption of the climate system we've directly been able to observe. Earlier in my life I thought that,…

You have a funny definition of 'good news'.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#48

Post by isotropy »

Iridescent_ wrote: post #43
Acssux wrote: post #5

How is something critical if it has been transgressed and we are still alive? Or on the very first moment every single one is past we all suddenly die?

If you have a pond with 1000 fishes, and each year the population of fish doubles, you can remove 501 fishes/year for quite a while. You are clearly in an unsustainable situation, yet it will take time for the population to completely collapse. These limits are in the sense that we cannot stay above forever, not in the we cannot go above ever sense.

Well, only for 8 years.

1000 998 994 986 970 938 874 746 490 ooops

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#49

Post by account-5 »

Liquix wrote: post #20

> Clearly, it is in humanity's best interest to... Herein lies the problem. What happens to the environment is not governed by "humanity's best interest", it's governed by whomever has the most power and the biggest stick. These entities act in their own best interest. To the Chinese government, more factories = more money = more power = good. To the US government, more military equipment = more power = good. At the…

> Repeat ad infitium.

Unlikely since these entities all end when the environment is fucked. I don't know the Latin for: approx next 100 years.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#50

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

haltist wrote: post #31
lkbm wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article says: > Boundary positions do not demarcate or predict singular threshold shifts in Earth system state. They are placed at a level where the available evidence suggests that further perturbation of the individual process could potentially lead to systemic planetary change by altering and fundamentally reshaping the dynamics and spatiotemporal patterns of geosphere-biosphere interactions and their feedback…

California's climate patterns are already changing but the state has managed to deal with the problems and will probably continue to do so. Texas on the other hand is starting to see problems with their electricity grid during summers and it's going to keep getting worse as temperatures continue to rise.

My man, this comment is so wildly antiscience. I don’t know where to begin.

I’m not sure if it would be with forest management, or the complexity and reasons that cut Texas has its own grid, separated from everyone else. I’m not sure I would say either directly applicable to this topic.

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