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Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

science.org

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Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#31

Post by haltist »

lkbm wrote: post #18
Acssux wrote: post #5

How is something critical if it has been transgressed and we are still alive? Or on the very first moment every single one is past we all suddenly die?

The article says: > Boundary positions do not demarcate or predict singular threshold shifts in Earth system state. They are placed at a level where the available evidence suggests that further perturbation of the individual process could potentially lead to systemic planetary change by altering and fundamentally reshaping the dynamics and spatiotemporal patterns of geosphere-biosphere interactions and their feedback…

California's climate patterns are already changing but the state has managed to deal with the problems and will probably continue to do so. Texas on the other hand is starting to see problems with their electricity grid during summers and it's going to keep getting worse as temperatures continue to rise.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#32

Post by toss1 »

Note that the areas of the three largest deviations are, in order: Biosphere Integrity, Novel Entities (synthetic chemical & processes), and Biogeochemical Flows.

The entire ecosystem on which we depend for sustenance is an extremely complex web of interlocking dependencies, from plankton to pollinators, to soil microbiota, to temperature & hydration, and so on, endlessly.

This is the food web. If it collapses, we as a species are beyond fooked. Because it is so complex (and even something relatively simple such as CO2-driven greenhouse effect climate change is too complex for the lower half of the population to understand), it is barely even discussed.

But make no mistake, the food web is under massive assault from all kinds of human activities (and even the artificial agriculture web is coming up against the hard limit of a phosphorus crisis). This is likely to be a sooner and more catastrophic failure than the climate crisis. The Fine Article nicely clarifies some of the threat.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#33

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Acssux wrote: post #5

How is something critical if it has been transgressed and we are still alive? Or on the very first moment every single one is past we all suddenly die?

> How is something critical if it has been transgressed

I don't think the paper claims we've passed criticality. Instead, it talks of boundaries and risk, the latter reflecting that we don't know where the critical points are.

> on the very first moment every single one is past we all suddenly die?

Biosphere collapse could happen suddenly and without warning. That would throw the global south into political turmoil while prompting a global and destabilizing refugee crisis.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#34

Post by casparvitch »

readthenotes1 wrote: post #10
naikrovek wrote: post #2

yeah, yeah, we know. there's money to be made, though, so we ain't stopping.

It's more like there are babies to be made. After all, if we stopped procreating so prolifically, things would right themselves fairly quickly

One and the same, economic growth has lead us here & economic growth has been highly tied to population growth.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#35

Post by littleweep »

Liquix wrote: post #20

> Clearly, it is in humanity's best interest to... Herein lies the problem. What happens to the environment is not governed by "humanity's best interest", it's governed by whomever has the most power and the biggest stick. These entities act in their own best interest. To the Chinese government, more factories = more money = more power = good. To the US government, more military equipment = more power = good. At the…

I guess until govts realize enviromental security is national security...

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#36

Post by lastofthemojito »

Liquix wrote: post #20

> Clearly, it is in humanity's best interest to... Herein lies the problem. What happens to the environment is not governed by "humanity's best interest", it's governed by whomever has the most power and the biggest stick. These entities act in their own best interest. To the Chinese government, more factories = more money = more power = good. To the US government, more military equipment = more power = good. At the…

> At the executive level of either organization one would be laughed out of the room for suggesting environmental issues should take priority over national security

Supposedly some folks are starting to frame climate issues as threats to national security. It may just be lip service so far, but we're now seeing "Meet the Climate Crisis" listed as one of the top 5 priorities for the US Department of Defense: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/331664...

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#37

Post by dopidop »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #25
Liquix wrote: post #20

> Clearly, it is in humanity's best interest to... Herein lies the problem. What happens to the environment is not governed by "humanity's best interest", it's governed by whomever has the most power and the biggest stick. These entities act in their own best interest. To the Chinese government, more factories = more money = more power = good. To the US government, more military equipment = more power = good. At the…

> t's governed by whomever has the most power and the biggest stick. These entities act in their own best interest Everyone acts in their own interests. The gilets jaunes were a grassroots protest against a gas tax increase. You see similar gas-station sticker-shock pressure exerted by voters in the United States. There are coordination problems to climate change. But it's less a prisoner's dilemma than a time-horizo…

Digression :

The Gillet jaune started this way. Very true. But also self organise to be something vastly different pretty quickly. Maybe 20 days into that months long movement ( it’s not officially over; like Korea war … )

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#38

Post by ipnon »

dr_dshiv wrote: post #28

I don’t know why this triggers such skepticism in me. Particularly the section on novel entities. But it feels funny, somehow, and I can’t put my finger on it.

I think the thought, like death, is simply so horrible it defies full consideration. This is why climate activists can seem fanatical, because it has a religious quality. Either you believe “it” will happen in our lifetime, very soon, or it will not happen at all, and it’s this horrifying, apocalyptic nature of the problem that causes this schism. If some of these climate scientists are right in their claims it is the most important thing for these activists to do. I’m sure we can all draw parallels here.

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#39

Post by dopidop »

formvoltron wrote: post #27

pretty sure we have enough solar and batteries to power the world. Sure ok we could use nuclear in some places too. aerosols... that's from burning fossil fuels, no? fake meat will go a long way to reclaiming farmland. micro / nano plastics everywhere sucks. going to have to think hard about how to fix that one. can we take cell samples of all the species just in case we need to conjure them up again? (or is at least…

It’s satire right ?

Re: Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries

#40

Post by ipnon »

lastofthemojito wrote: post #36
Liquix wrote: post #20

> Clearly, it is in humanity's best interest to... Herein lies the problem. What happens to the environment is not governed by "humanity's best interest", it's governed by whomever has the most power and the biggest stick. These entities act in their own best interest. To the Chinese government, more factories = more money = more power = good. To the US government, more military equipment = more power = good. At the…

> At the executive level of either organization one would be laughed out of the room for suggesting environmental issues should take priority over national security Supposedly some folks are starting to frame climate issues as threats to national security. It may just be lip service so far, but we're now seeing "Meet the Climate Crisis" listed as one of the top 5 priorities for the US Department of Defense: https://w…

“Hell hath no wrath like a national security apparatus threatened,” I think that’s how it goes. Once USG, or Wall Street even, is threatened nothing is really off the table.
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